Twins Ink Contracts with Three Top International Prospects

Thanks, Ted—hadn’t seen the full list before, or the dollar figures for Silva and Chivilli.  Looks like the Twins are scouting Venezuela heavily—wonder if Arraez’ success has helped?  Chivilli was ranked #38 by mlb, but elsewhere was listed top ten, so the higher signing amount makes sense.

(One note—I think your link to the Jamie Cameron October piece is wrong.)

Thanks for the details on the big names and the ‘low-dollar’ signees beyond the first 3.  Although it’s fun to read about the potential of the high-end guys, I think it’s the low end guys that dictate success level in international signees (Arraez vs Sano, for example), simply because, as mentioned, it’s hard to predict the future of a 16 YO. 
 

Are the most successful teams those that sign the the big names or those that sign, say, the most in the $50-200K range (Altuve, anyone?)?  Should the Padres have signed 30 guys for $100-200K rather than one for essentially their total pool of money?  Anyone got any insight over the question of ‘quantity vs quality’?

1 hour ago, Tiantwindup said:

Thanks for the details on the big names and the ‘low-dollar’ signees beyond the first 3.  Although it’s fun to read about the potential of the high-end guys, I think it’s the low end guys that dictate success level in international signees (Arraez vs Sano, for example), simply because, as mentioned, it’s hard to predict the future of a 16 YO. 
 

Are the most successful teams those that sign the the big names or those that sign, say, the most in the $50-200K range (Altuve, anyone?)?  Should the Padres have signed 30 guys for $100-200K rather than one for essentially their total pool of money?  Anyone got any insight over the question of ‘quantity vs quality’?

There is no one way. Vlad Guerro Jr, Sano, Severino and Wander Javier. All big ticket, 4 different outcomes

Is Silva son of former Twins pitcher with same name?

6 minutes ago, ScottyB said:

Is Silva son of former Twins pitcher with same name?

While both are from Venezuela, the answer seems to be no. From the former Twins’ pitcher’s Wikipedia page:

“Silva resides in Medina, Minnesota, with his wife Maria Hermann, son Justin, born June 12, 2007, and daughter Gabriella, born September 8, 2008.”

Undoubtedly a namesake for the Venezuelan-made-good, though!

It seems there are a lot of different ways to approach international signings but I have to say this whole process confounds me.  First taking a quick glance at most teams signings (don't have info on (LAD,MIA,PIT,STL,TEX)  there are several teams (about 1/3) that just signed 1 player for about 3M to 4M or more (Cin,NYY,Oak,PHI,SD,SF,Sea,TB,Tor) and then a bunch of filler.  So those teams are looking to essentially grab one highly rated player and a ton of lower level lottery tickets.  So pretty much betting on the one player in a boom or bust scenario.

The next most popular scenario appears to be to buy two or three 1M Dollar guys and supplement half a million dollar salaries or less and grabbing lots of players. (i.e. Ari,Bos,CHW,Cle,Det,KC,LAA,Mil,NYM,WSH).  This spreads the risk to several athletes outside the top 20 but gives a team more chances to hit on athletes with good upside but maybe not showing elite talent at 16 years of age.  Lot's of projection candidates in this range.

The final scenario seems to be to get one guy in the 2 to 2.5M range and supplement another 1M player or several half million dollar players (i.e. Atl,Bal,CHC,COL,Hou).  This is a scenario where teams seem to try to have their cake and eat it to.  They sign an elite player and then an athlete or two with good upside and then a bunch of filler.  The Twins fall in this range to an extreme this year as they appear to have signed 2 2M dollar players and third 1 million dollar player in an attempt to get two elite players in one draft and a solid player to boot. I like seeing the Twins going for the big talent this year but it is impossible to know how things will work out.

One thing we know for sure is that no matter how much money gets thrown around only about 5% of these guys or less are going to make it.  Not all the guys with the big signing bonuses are going to make it and not all the guys who got smaller bonuses are going to fail.  It is way to hard to predict what is going to happen to 16 year olds over time but that is the system that is in place.  The ratings are nothing more than somewhat logical guesses on current tools and body projection that could all change in a few years time.

I had been told this quite a while ago but the Fangraphs article brought it to light again.  Most of these deals are being made when these kids are actually only 14 years old. So my question is this.  Do the various strategies above depend on the deals team were able to make when the players were 14 and let's say most of the player your team identified didn't quite turn out so you end up with lesser picks?  Or do some teams muscle out other teams by spending essentially their whole international allotment on one player squeezing out other potential suitors?  There seems to be a whole game with the game when it comes to international signings if you ask me.

At any rate some of these guys are going to make it.  I like the Twins picks this year though I wonder how they are going to fill out their team with so few picks this year since they blew most of their money on the first three picks.  It might not be best for the players but it sure seems like a draft would be a better way to disperse international talent to MLB teams but that is just my opinion after looking into it.

Interesting that three total about $5.6M of their $6.3+M pool.  Expect there are a few of those other seven that got a hundred grand, but most likely got a bit less.  Also expect there are several others at $25-$50K or less than $25K, which doesn't count towards their total.

Am ecstatic that one of their top guys was a catcher, something we need badly.  If he was ranked #31, was he the top ranked catcher this year?  If not, maybe #2?

I didn't realize how desperate the Twins are for pitching that they signed Carlos Silva...

I hope THIS Carlos is as successful as his elder namesake.

George Springer grew up playing Little League in my hometown. A lot of us parents watching him had a feeling that he would make the pros someday. It was around then when he played catch with Tori Hunter at a local Twins AA game and that's how Springer decided that he wanted to be a pro. A lot of it is about dedication. As long as a kid has enough talent and the right development which Springer had in abundance, then the sky is the limit. Plus Springer's dad's nickname was Champ when he was a little kid! And Springer did become a champ too! If one of these kids can work out then it will have been worth it for the Twins. New stars are born every day! 

2 hours ago, roger said:

Interesting that three total about $5.6M of their $6.3+M pool.  Expect there are a few of those other seven that got a hundred grand, but most likely got a bit less.  Also expect there are several others at $25-$50K or less than $25K, which doesn't count towards their total.

Am ecstatic that one of their top guys was a catcher, something we need badly.  If he was ranked #31, was he the top ranked catcher this year?  If not, maybe #2?

According to mlb.com rankings, Silva is the fourth best C prospect:

Ethan Salas signed with Padres for $5.6mm (MLB #1 ranked for 2023 intl)

Duno signed with the Reds for $3.1 million (MLB #5 ranked for 2023 intl)

Gutierrez signed with the Mets for $1.9mm (MLB #27 ranked for 2023 intl)

There are three players on the 40 man roster that were IFA signed by the Twins. There are 3 IFA signed by the Twins as IFA on the top 30 list on MLB.com. Maybe their luck will change with these signings.

I give little weight to scouting of these kids at 16 and 17 years old.  Even ore so on the rankings.  Many time the top ranked prospect does not pan out, and the much further down does better over a career.  Not saying there is no weight to be given, but lets wait and see what becomes in 3 plus years, as they are not even likely to come state side for minor league ball for 2 to 3 years. 

I've always thought this international signing of kids less than 18 years old is bizarre.  MLB does it because they can and the money is a great thing for them and their families, just has always felt off to me this is occurring.

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

There are three players on the 40 man roster that were IFA signed by the Twins. There are 3 IFA signed by the Twins as IFA on the top 30 list on MLB.com. Maybe their luck will change with these signings.

Wasn't that long ago that there were more than 3 on the big league roster.  Just checked and there are 5 on the MLB.com top 30.  

10 hours ago, Tiantwindup said:

Thanks for the details on the big names and the ‘low-dollar’ signees beyond the first 3.  Although it’s fun to read about the potential of the high-end guys, I think it’s the low end guys that dictate success level in international signees (Arraez vs Sano, for example), simply because, as mentioned, it’s hard to predict the future of a 16 YO. 
 

Are the most successful teams those that sign the the big names or those that sign, say, the most in the $50-200K range (Altuve, anyone?)?  Should the Padres have signed 30 guys for $100-200K rather than one for essentially their total pool of money?  Anyone got any insight over the question of ‘quantity vs quality’?

A couple years ago I read an article that listed the top international bonuses of all time.  I looked all of them up and came to the conclusion it made absolutely no sense to sign the $4M+ players.  The Twins history with the $2M plus guys certainly does not inspire confidence.  Of course, they can't spend the entire allotment on guys that are $100K although I saw the Brewers had signed 29 guys.  The best course of action based on the information I looked at a couple years ago would be to sign four or five guys from $500K to 1.5M instead of one at $4M.  Then, spend a couple million on the $50-200K guys.  Of course, that ideal scenario would be very difficult to pull-off when they are competing with 30 other teams for a limited number of prospects that get $500K-$1.5M.

54 minutes ago, roger said:

Wasn't that long ago that there were more than 3 on the big league roster.  Just checked and there are 5 on the MLB.com top 30.  

2 were traded for. I was specific for a reason as signed by the Twins. Much easier to judge talent a few seasons in the minors

13 minutes ago, old nurse said:

2 were traded for. I was specific for a reason as signed by the Twins. Much easier to judge talent a few seasons in the minors

There were five (5) that they signed:  Em Rodriguez, Urbina, Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez, and De Andrade.  The Top 30 I am using is the one currently on the Twins website.

Your are correct that there are several others that were acquired via trade.  But there actually are 5 who originally signed with the Twins.

11 hours ago, Dman said:

It seems there are a lot of different ways to approach international signings but I have to say this whole process confounds me.  First taking a quick glance at most teams signings (don't have info on (LAD,MIA,PIT,STL,TEX)  there are several teams (about 1/3) that just signed 1 player for about 3M to 4M or more (Cin,NYY,Oak,PHI,SD,SF,Sea,TB,Tor) and then a bunch of filler.  So those teams are looking to essentially grab one highly rated player and a ton of lower level lottery tickets.  So pretty much betting on the one player in a boom or bust scenario.

The next most popular scenario appears to be to buy two or three 1M Dollar guys and supplement half a million dollar salaries or less and grabbing lots of players. (i.e. Ari,Bos,CHW,Cle,Det,KC,LAA,Mil,NYM,WSH).  This spreads the risk to several athletes outside the top 20 but gives a team more chances to hit on athletes with good upside but maybe not showing elite talent at 16 years of age.  Lot's of projection candidates in this range.

The final scenario seems to be to get one guy in the 2 to 2.5M range and supplement another 1M player or several half million dollar players (i.e. Atl,Bal,CHC,COL,Hou).  This is a scenario where teams seem to try to have their cake and eat it to.  They sign an elite player and then an athlete or two with good upside and then a bunch of filler.  The Twins fall in this range to an extreme this year as they appear to have signed 2 2M dollar players and third 1 million dollar player in an attempt to get two elite players in one draft and a solid player to boot. I like seeing the Twins going for the big talent this year but it is impossible to know how things will work out.

One thing we know for sure is that no matter how much money gets thrown around only about 5% of these guys or less are going to make it.  Not all the guys with the big signing bonuses are going to make it and not all the guys who got smaller bonuses are going to fail.  It is way to hard to predict what is going to happen to 16 year olds over time but that is the system that is in place.  The ratings are nothing more than somewhat logical guesses on current tools and body projection that could all change in a few years time.

I had been told this quite a while ago but the Fangraphs article brought it to light again.  Most of these deals are being made when these kids are actually only 14 years old. So my question is this.  Do the various strategies above depend on the deals team were able to make when the players were 14 and let's say most of the player your team identified didn't quite turn out so you end up with lesser picks?  Or do some teams muscle out other teams by spending essentially their whole international allotment on one player squeezing out other potential suitors?  There seems to be a whole game with the game when it comes to international signings if you ask me.

At any rate some of these guys are going to make it.  I like the Twins picks this year though I wonder how they are going to fill out their team with so few picks this year since they blew most of their money on the first three picks.  It might not be best for the players but it sure seems like a draft would be a better way to disperse international talent to MLB teams but that is just my opinion after looking into it.

I can't claim to really know any more than you just what I've read/heard over the years. But I suspect that the idea that a team has a strategy to spend X amount of money on X guys and Y amount of money on Y other guys, and that leads to some collection of players is probably almost the opposite of how the process works.

Since it is a signing period and not a draft, I have to assume there is a sort of auction period between the trainers, scouts, and clubs that we aren't privy to since there isn't any public information at that stage. A team could take a stance that they won't go above say, $1 million for any player, and that would probably lead to a slightly different looking class. I think mostly though, it's just that scouts and trainers have relationships, teams get interested in a certain group of players through their scouts, they manage their pool, and when they have more interest in a particular player (and pool space) than other clubs, they come to an agreement by having the highest bid. As you say, a lot of that happens years before the actual signing.

Is this the fangraphs article you refer to? It seems like under the current pool system some teams are over committing and reneging on deals late, so there is probably some opportunity for teams to swoop in on deals for these players late.  I remember several years under the previous system where large market teams were deciding to go on international spending sprees every few years, so there might have been the opposite dynamic for a few years where teams were swooping in late with increased offers after they decided to spend.

Mostly I think it's a long complicated process that relies partly on personal relationships between scouts and trainers, and where scouts also often have a significant amount of independence negotiating. I don't think most teams are really operating much differently strategically, it just ends up differently for them depending on the players in which they have the most relative interest in any given class.

The thing that I've been thinking about the last year or so...when the whole international draft proposal was debated and then tabled...is what's best for these young kids? On the one hand, in the U.S. we've all heard stories about "agents" working with HS age kids and helping them "find" the best college program for them. And we've heard similar stories over the years for different coaches and advisors and the such who have contacts with ML clubs and help steer players a certain direction. 

I just keep wondering what's best for these international kids, who are 16-17yo and NOT 17-18yo U.S. HS players elgible for the draft and usually have college options available to them. Any draftee beyond a certain round...and I forget the recent changes...has an on table offer of around $10k minimum. As do draftees who aren't selected. (Again, forgive my memory for all the recent changes in draft structure). Are these international kids better off signing for whatever they can get, and the OPPORTUNITY to make salaries and the CHANCE to "make jt" better served by the current system? I think MLB limiting $ to be spent is "fair" in regard to teams with massive $ available to spend as they would like, creating a sort of draft-like scenario for the sport. I almost want to say that spreading the $ around, as the system is currently constructed, might be better and allow more opportunity for the not top prospects. I don't have the answers, but I think it should be examined. 

From the Twins perspective, Castro appears to have a frame that doesn't need to grow much more to be a viable prospect with tools. Just continued development as a player and a few more "man muscles" as he fills out to a 195lbs.

Chivilli seems to have the requisite athleticism to play SS. I love the idea of a long 6' 3" SS with ability to grow and fill out, as long as he doesn't outgrow the position. 

I made a comment in a pre-signing thread that it seemed the Twins never signed catchers or pitchers in the Latin market as a priority. And now, here they did. From reports, he's got an arm and a catcher frame of mind with at least some offensive potential. But he obviously has to add bulk/weight/muscle to a smaller frame without growing too big.

I think it's crazy we speculate on 16-17yo kids who are probably 5-7yrs from potentially making the ML. BUT it's part of the equation. 

The one thing that has surprised me is the lack of catchers signed by the Twins previously, or any top arm prospects signed. Now, I fully understand we're talking about 16-17yo kids, and there is a huge percentage of young arms...and catchers...who never work out, international or HS...but they just seem adverse to taking shots on the "maybe" options that are available. And maybe they are just being smart and playing the percentages. But I can't help but wonder if they shouldn't re-think their international approach and take a shot once in a while on potential for something other than a positional "athlete".