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  • Twins Game Recap (9/5): Eddie Rosario Throw Seals 2-1 Victory


    Matthew Lenz

    On a night when the offense couldn’t catch a break the Twins were, somewhat surprisingly, carried by Martin Perez and the Polanco-less defense. Perez outshines Eovaldi, the defense saves the day, and the Twins win the rubber match 2-1 over the Red Sox.

    Image courtesy of FanGraphs

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Perez: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 70.0% strikes (49 of 70 pitches)

    Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

    Home Runs: None

    Multi-Hit Games: None

    Top 3 WPA: Perez (.242), Rogers (.226), Duffey (.151)

    Bottom 3 WPA: Cruz (-.172), Cron (-.161), Kepler (-.152)

    Martin Perez starts strong in September, Bullpen holds the lead

    Hopefully tonight was a sign of things to come for Perez. Through four innings Perez had a strike percentage of 82 percent and had induced just three hard hits as defined by Baseball Savant. If it wasn’t for a fluke home run by Mookie Betts, which had an xBA of .250, he would have pitched four perfect innings using fewer than than 40 pitches. Things started to unravel a bit in sixth inning when Perez lost control of the strike zone, allowed a rocket double to Betts off the Green Monster, followed by a Bogaerts walk and an errant pick-off attempt before escaping the inning without giving up a run. After just 70 pitches and six innings from Perez, the bullpen took over. As has been the case since the All-Star break, the bullpen was dominant, sending May and Duffey to shut down the seventh and eighth, respectively, followed by Romo and Rogers teaming up to close out the ninth.

    Despite good contact, offense does just enough to reward Perez

    Throughout the evening the Twins expected batting average was hovering right around the .300 mark, per Baseball Savant, but ultimately ended the night batting .077. That should tell you how well they actually hit the ball tonight but were just the victims of some bad luck. Loading the bases twice resulted in just two runs and they hit into four double plays, their seventh in the last two games, despite Cron’s batted balls having an xBA of .550 and .480. Per BaseballReference, this was the fourth time in Twins history and 11th time in franchise history they won a game with only two hits and zero homeruns.

    Defense picks up offense, for a change

    It’s no secret that the defense has been struggling for a while after looking great at the beginning of the year. Outside of the errant throw from Perez, which did not lead to a run, the Twins defense shined in a game the offense needed the “pick me up”. In the second and third innings, Sano made two plays at third base that could have easily been hits. Cron made a nice diving play on a ball that was awkwardly hit just short of first base and barely in foul territory. Jake Cave robbed an extra-base hit from Chirstian Vazquez in the seventh which had a catch probability of 25 percent, per the FSN broadcast. Everything was capped off on the final play of the game when Eddie Rosario threw out Rafael Devers, the tying run, after Martinez hit a ball high off the Green Monster.

    https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1169794843779973122

    Postgame With Baldelli

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

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    Awesome game!

     

    Thought it was interesting they left Astudillo in to play 2B - and he made a nice play - rather than swap in Adrianza to play SS and shift Arraez over. Makes me worried they aren’t expecting Marwin back and are seeing how far they can stretch Willians.

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    Anyone else watch Rosario jump for joy and crash onto Buxton's shoulder and wince a little bit?

     

    I did! I was watching Bux kind of flinch there and not go up for the big chest-bump....then watching Rosie kind of come down and catch him right in the shoulder. Yeeks.

     

    Bux seemed fine though.

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    Man teams really don't seem to want to challenge Sano.  He has not been getting very many pitches to hit these days. Kudos to him for laying off all the garbage teams have been throwing him.  I know he wants to hit the ball but you also have to take what the other team gives you and not getting himself out still helps the team. Interestingly those two walks ended up producing the only runs scored in the game. So walks are important too. Also nice to see the big man playing some great defense as well.  He really seems to be getting back to the player I always thought he was going to be.

     

    I have been really down on Perez and expected we would need to score 7 or 8 runs to win this game.  I don't know how he did it but he dominated a very tough lineup tonight.  Have to say I was very impressed with how he pitched tonight.  I just hope he can keep pitching like that the rest of the way.

     

    My love hate relationship continues with Rosario.  The one at bat I saw him take he swung at two pitches out of the zone and finally took one to make 1 and 2 but the count could have 3 and 0 if he had laid off and he would have had an opportunity to see three good pitches or god forbid actually take a walk.  And yet like Eddie generally does he makes the best play of the game.  Honestly I I don't understand how he did it.  On the replay Devers is rounding third and Rosario has to spin around and throw home the throw has to be hard and pretty much perfectly online to beat the runner.  That is a really tough play to make and it was beautiful to watch.  Thank you Eddie for the play of the game and series for that matter.

     

    If this team can just hold it together and take the Cleveland series maybe they can work in some rest for some these guy before the postseason.  Great all around game very happy they won and took the series in Boston for a change.

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    I did! I was watching Bux kind of flinch there and not go up for the big chest-bump....then watching Rosie kind of come down and catch him right in the shoulder. Yeeks.

     

    Bux seemed fine though.

    I was watching for that when Dantes mentioned it and I didn’t and don’t see it. And I have literally watched it about 20 times. I don’t see Buxton wincing or flinching.

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    I was watching for that when Dantes mentioned it and I didn’t and don’t see it. And I have literally watched it about 20 times. I don’t see Buxton wincing or flinching.

    No.  Buxton didn't wince or flinch.    I did!    I don't even know what shoulder was injured but could easily see a silly celebration like that landing wrong and be costly.   

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    Pitchers duel in Boston and Perez came out the winner.  Arraez playing shortstop with La Tortuga getting several late innings at second and the defense is solid, 100% solid.  Arraez gets the Twins first hit, plus a later walk, and La Tortuga has the game winning pinch hit.  Finally, the game ends with a drive off the Monster, unfortunately for the Sox the Twins left fielder was Eddie, Eddie, Eddie!

     

    Hell fo a game.  

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    We all saw the match-up of Perez vs. Eovaldi and assumed it would be a pitchers duel.  :)

     

    That's why I love baseball, it can't be played on paper. I love that Perez stepped up big, I love that Cave made a big catch, I love Astudillo pinch hitting and unexpectedly took 4 pitches before coming up big and I love the nice play he made at 2B. And of course "The Throw" coming from a guy who has made his share of throwing gaffes this year.

     

    This is baseball... Strap it on and do something between the lines. Tomorrow is a new day.  

     

    However, I do want to look back at something and I hate being this guy after a fantastic win. It is not my intention for this to spin off a side topic in this thread because it was good news last night but it is relevant from a compare and contrast moment.  

     

    Keep in mind... I have forgiven Tony Diaz for August 12th against the Indians but I do want to illustrate that Rosario was fielding a ball off the LF wall, quite a distance from home plate. When Rosario threw the ball, Devers was touching 3B. He made a perfect professional throw with two outs and got him by plenty.

     

    On the play August 12th... Adrianza was in similar position to where Devers was, either about to touch 3B or just touching third when LIndor was receiving the ball as the cut, not far from the infield. Much much shorter distance and a much easier throw for a professional... and of course there was 1 out. 

     

    I think the Boston 3B coach made a sensible send with two outs. Rosario just got it done. I'm not doing this to bash Diaz one more time. I just think it was a compare and contrast moment. 

     

    I've made mistakes in my life. I've forgiven Tony Diaz.  :)

     

    On to Cleveland.  

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    No.  Buxton didn't wince or flinch.    I did!    I don't even know what shoulder was injured but could easily see a silly celebration like that landing wrong and be costly.

     

    Ahhhh ... got it ... yeah, in the moment celebrating can have consequences.

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    I understand how the formula for WPA works, but it's a travesty that Rogers gets all the credit for giving up a big double off the wall for the final out and Rosario gets ... nothing.

    Assist, I believe.

     

    And my 2 cents: Last night's game was the second most fun I've had this year. That is all.

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    Eddie is a heart breaker.  For every great play or clutch Home Run you also have to put up with swinging at balls a foot off the plate, running himself into an out or inexplicably missing a cutoff man. His heroics are great today until he is maligned for the next misplay.  He makes games interesting I will give him that but he is not a model of consistency to be sure.

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    I like Eddie a lot.  Always have.   However, if we can get a young good starting pitcher with several years of control I would definitely consider it.   Maybe a guy like Boston's Rodriquez but with another year or two of control.   Just fine with keeping him also, just not for keeping him based on one really great throw.   

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    I like Eddie a lot.  Always have.   However, if we can get a young good starting pitcher with several years of control I would definitely consider it.   Maybe a guy like Boston's Rodriquez but with another year or two of control.   Just fine with keeping him also, just not for keeping him based on one really great throw.   

     

    I totally agree and would add we have three players AA or higher that are close to ready to take that spot.  I prefer Kepler over Eddie,  Eddie is no Buxton in center and why pay top Dollar for Eddie when we have players coming up who can likely put up numbers close to him or if lucky just as good or slightly better.  We could use that extra money to pump into pitching which is a greater system weakness and need.  It is not that people don't like Eddie as a player it is just that he seems the most likely to be moved. 

     

    Personally I think the Twins will keep him one more year until they can determine if one of those three players can make the transition.  Kind of like Arraez this year.  I guess we'll find out next year.

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    Eddie is a heart breaker.  For every great play or clutch Home Run you also have to put up with swinging at balls a foot off the plate, running himself into an out or inexplicably missing a cutoff man. His heroics are great today until he is maligned for the next misplay.  He makes games interesting I will give him that but he is not a model of consistency to be sure.

    Nobody is perfect.  But Eddie is a difference maker.  You want to dis him for some bad plays, but you are choosing to dwell on the negative.  This guy is a winner.  

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    Nobody is perfect.  But Eddie is a difference maker.  You want to dis him for some bad plays, but you are choosing to dwell on the negative.  This guy is a winner.  

     

    He is a good player and typically brings energy but looking at numbers Jake Cave's OPS is not far off from Eddies.  He plays just as good of defense as Eddie and he is younger with more years of control so if you are a believer in OPS then you wouldn't lose much production swapping them out.  Eddie has a higher batting average but his OBP percentage suffers because he doesn't take walks (i.e. poor plate discipline).  That issue handicaps him and in the end it hurts his total production so it makes him more replaceable than other players. 

     

    I get he is the hero today instead of the goat but tomorrow is another day and his flaws will show themselves once again.  He has been s steady 800 OPS player which is good but not elite. If there is a player whose production can be replaced it appears to be Eddie that would be replaced.

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    You miss the point. It is NOT a numbers thing. It is a play making thing. 

     

    Numbers don't win ball games, players who make plays do.  Eddie is a special guy whose contribution goes beyond the numbers. In short, he plays above his stats.Those who have coached will remember players that  were middle of the lineup stat wise, but always seemed to get that big hit  or make that fiendish play. Eddie is one of those guys. 

     

    Jake is a decent 4th outfielder, but if he were better than Eddie, he'd be starting over him. 

     

    The focus on numbers, like OPS, OBP etc misses what happens in situational baseball. I'd rather have Eddie up in a situation where the game depends on it than anyone. Keps is becoming that kind of hitter.

     

    And in the field, I have seen Eddie gun down several dozen base runners trying to stretch in the past couple of years, I have no memory of Cave doing that. Its about making the play, not what the stat line says

    source?

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    Seeing this has been dump on Eddie week, there is something else I have noticed.  When the Twins have a win with their RBK outfield playing, the player's meeting in center is different than when one or more are missing.  Just more alive, more energy.  

     

    Could be 100% wrong, but I believe there is a huge risk to this team should they trade any of the three.  So many players/coaches talk about team chemistry.  Take away a key part of the core of the group could cause the team to go flat next year, couldn't it?

    Edited by rdehring
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    You miss the point. It is NOT a numbers thing. It is a play making thing. 

     

    Numbers don't win ball games, players who make plays do.  Eddie is a special guy whose contribution goes beyond the numbers. In short, he plays above his stats.Those who have coached will remember players that  were middle of the lineup stat wise, but always seemed to get that big hit  or make that fiendish play. Eddie is one of those guys. 

     

    Jake is a decent 4th outfielder, but if he were better than Eddie, he'd be starting over him. 

     

    The focus on numbers, like OPS, OBP etc misses what happens in situational baseball. I'd rather have Eddie up in a situation where the game depends on it than anyone. Keps is becoming that kind of hitter.

     

    And in the field, I have seen Eddie gun down several dozen base runners trying to stretch in the past couple of years, I have no memory of Cave doing that. Its about making the play, not what the stat line says

     

    But everything OPS stands for is situational baseball.  For Example last night Sano took two walks instead of swinging at pitches out of the zone to try and hit a Home Run.  Those two walks created the only runs scored in the game last night.  Without the Sano walks we score no runs at all and Eddie can't even be the hero.  Every situation counts and that is what OPS measures.

     

    I will give you that Rosario has elite wrists and hand eye coordination and can turn on a ball better than a lot of batters.  He has an elite skill there but he wastes it by not being patient and getting good pitches to hit and in the end that makes him more average overall.  I love the guy like everyone else does when he comes up big but other players come up big too not just Eddie.  I love his passion and that he cares about winning the game in a good way, but the numbers don't lie and his current production looks replaceable to me.

    Edited by Dman
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