Twins Future Position Analysis: Corner Outfield

This is a very good series, Cody, thank you.  I am not sure I see a big surplus here, at least for this year, especially if Kepler is traded.  I am not sure who would patrol the third outfield spot next to Buxton and Kirilloff.  Jack Cave, Kyle Garlick, and Derek Fisher are not the answer.  Rooker has significant defensive issues and has yet to prove he can hit major league pitching.  Maybe he just needs more at bats, but then again maybe he one of those AAA players who can't make the leap.  Larnach I still believe in, but I doubt he will spend much of this year in the majors--I hope I am wrong.  Wallner is going to need time to develop.  If they try instead to trade Rooker or Larnach for pitching they will be trading them at their lowest value.  Plus, if they trade either Larnach or Wallner they will really have issues in 23 as I suspect Kirilloff will go to first base once Sano leaves, leaving two outfield positions open.  If Kepler is traded, who do you see being the Twins four outfielders this year?  Again, thanks for your great articles.

I was expecting to see Austin Martin listed here even though he has some IF and CF ability as well.  He's mentioned as a Twins future LF'er, so I'm a little surprised he wasn't.  Good grief, having EIGHT OF'ers on the St. Paul roster is ridiculous.  Cut some guys.  

Out of the gate in ‘22, Kepler, Larnach, Fisher, Celistino, Rooker, Arraez, yadda yadda, yadda, are the most likely to see time in the corner OF spots.
 

Ultimately, I think you are missing the two most likely to bracket Buxton - Martin and Lewis (and I’m not talking about that famous comedy duo). Although we all hope Royce can play SS, neither likely projects as a plus fielder at that position. With their speed and arms, both, however, probably do as corner outfielders (as well as backup CFs for Buxton when needed) and should have the desired combination of power and OBA at the plate as well.
 

It could be in ‘23 (and hopefully for an additional several years after that) we see a starting outfield of Martin, Buxton, and Lewis with some combo of Larnach, Wallner and Celestino in the important platoon roles. That could be one great outfield. 

I just wanted to comment on the trade aspect.  I find the value of corner OF very low.  Unless they are top hitter and fielder.  If they are just a good hitter or good fielder they are easy to find replacements.  Of course elite hitters have value, but you are not trading them away unless you have several elite hitters in those spots.  Even then, you can normally use them as DH or 1B to get their bat in the line up.  

They can be part of deals, but I personally do not think corner OF should be part of a deal unless they are elite, and then you are not trading them unless you are selling. 

A couple months back there was a very insightful article I read that suggested Palacios at SS, and Lewis and Martin playing the corners with Buxton in center.  I will have to admit that I was the one who wrote that article. ???. Yea me!!!!!

When I read through the entire essay I find the comment, "Minnesota has a surplus of corner outfielders" to be overstated. We have an underperforming Kepler who peaked and has at no time come close to repeating.  We have no glove Rooker, Larnach who fell apart last year.  Then there is Kiriloff who will be a 1B.  Then we have a stack of mediocre OF with no upside, but enough MLB experience to be emergency fill ins.  The AAA OF prospects are getting older and Wallner is too young.  

Our corner OF survives if Buxton is there to cover for them.  

Add me to the growing list of those who cringe every time I read the comment, "Minnesota has a surplus of corner outfielders."  

Yet, the more I think about it, you are technically correct.  There is a surplus of corner outfielders, however, other than Kepler, Larnach and Kirilloff all have lots of tarnish on their star or are far away from being major league ready..  And many of you will debate whether Kepler should or shouldn't remain with the Twins.  Add the fact that Kirilloff is headed to first base and you have Larnach as the only top level prospect who is close. 

I don't know about the rest of you, but I hope we never again see Arraez, who I see as a tremendous asset for the Twins, or Rooker in left field again.  Should Rooker's bat return to what it was pre-broken wrist, let him be the primary DH.

Trade someone for a pitcher unless they can also play CF - need someone besides Cave there when Bux gets injured again.

One of the thing that this series has revealed to me is that the Twins lack QUALITY depth (or top prospects) at several positions.  Lots of maybes, wishes and hope they pan outs.

To be successful beyond 2022 they need several players to develop into quality big league contributors including (but not limited to) Larnach, Rooker, Miranda, Martin, Lewis and possibly Celestino.  That is a lot to hope for.  Short of these guys panning out, trades or free agent signings will be needed.

And this does not, of course, adress pitching...

Larnach should probably start in AAA. Major league pitchers exploited his weaknesses last year.

Celestino probably will join him unless he can win a regular role of at least 4 games a week in spring training. His glove in LF would be an asset if his bat is ready.

They need a right handed bat that can play some corner OF. I would give Miranda a shot. Miranda needs to find at least 4 games a week between corner OF, 3B, 2B and 1B. If his bat is real LF might be the spot he can get regular play next year.

I would start Kirilloff, Buxton and Kepler with Miranda, Gordon and Arraez filling in. Larnach, Celestino and Martin can battle for the first guy to get called up when injuries strike.

Larnach getting a call before midseason seems unreasonable based on how badly he struggled against almost anything other than a 4 seam fastball last year at the MLB level and how he failed to turn it around after a demotion to AAA.

Rooker is much quicker than he gets credit for, but he gets bad jumps on balls. He's probably a servicable corner outfielder, but he needs to prove it was crazy bad luck that kept his production low rather than the shift, etc. 

Wallner has 40 grade speed with a projection of 35 speed on fangraphs (ouch). He's a DH unless he can improve the athleticism.

Garlick could maybe handle a corner spot if given the opportunity. He just doesn't have a lot of track record and he's not a good option for a 4th outfielder because he can't cover center.

Kirilloff would be worth a lot more in the corners than 1B. Fangraphs has Kirilloff as a 30 grade speed, though I'm not sure how they came to that conclusion and MLB has him as a 50 grade. Kirilloff managed a 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed (60th percentile in MLB) which is more than enough for the corners.

Kepler is a solid corner outfielder. He's dropped some speed in the past couple years so he's probably no longer a valid option in center field like he was in 2019. He's a known quanitity worth starting as an everyday player.

Martin is seen as a second baseman by most scouts. He doesn't appear to have the range for center field or the arm for SS or 3rd base.

Celestino is a center fielder, not a corner outfielder. It would be a waste to stick him in the corners where his limited bat would do far less for value creation. Considering Buxton is going to be hurt for 80-100 games next year, Celestino is best used as a replacement there.

Cave profiles as a AAAA player.

Fisher has generated a grand total of -0.1 fWAR in his career. He's MiLB depth as far as I'm concerned.

The rest of the farm options are not ready, emergency backups or MiLB depth, IMHO.

I think it would be fair to say the Twins have a lot of players who technically play corner outfielder at some level or another. They have precious few proven MLB caliber corner outfielders.

19 hours ago, wsnydes said:

Your shameless self promotion seems incomplete without a link! ?

I have too much modesty to allow me to do that - and I'm too lazy to find the article.

It would seem that the Twins have poorly positioned themselves for an everyday replacement for the departed Eddie Rosario..  They need to "clear the decks" of players in the pipeline that do not profile as holding down a permanent corner outfield position.  They also need to clearly define and execute a long range positional plan for Alex Kirilloff. 1B? OF?  The team is in a (contractual) good long term place with Max Kepler.  Fact is, it is easier to "bury" a less than stellar defensive corner outfielder in RF than in LF.  Having a LHSP or two, also takes some of the defensive pressure off of whomever is patrolling RF.  Why is it that the Twins continue to play Kepler in RF?  I thought I read somewhere that Kepler prefers to play LF?  If Kepler played LF, his glove hand would be at the LF line.  What direction is Buxton better at moving towards in terms of reading fly balls and breaking off the bat?  Although I can understand the reluctance of the Twins to dive into the NPB posting pool after their regrettable prior experience, a foray into the Seiya Suzuki posting pool would seem to be a no-brainer.  The Twins already have a fellow countryman on their roster who could provide support to Suzuki and make the transition to MLB  that much smoother and perhaps provide and edge in negotiations.  Such an addition would provide a contractually stable, long term Outfield alignment of: Kepler - Buxton - Suzuki!!

Suzuki is intriguing, but there is simply zero buzz that the Twins have even entered the fray for his services.

It would make too much sense:  reasonable contract, apparently good player, and no players lost in acquisition.

Steve71:  EXACTLY the problem with the Twins Organization in general. And specifically with: their ownership, their PBO, their General Manager, their Minor League system, their coaching, , their scouting and their drafting.

Rooker is a perfectly serviceable COF. He's as fast as Kiriloff and runs better routes. A little quicker first step would do him wonders.

But as a lefty-mashing, weak-side platoon COF, he's a great fit. Unless the brass give Miranda the LF gig out of ST, the Twins would benefit from having two RHB COF for platooning.

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

Rooker is a perfectly serviceable COF. He's as fast as Kiriloff and runs better routes. A little quicker first step would do him wonders.

But as a lefty-mashing, weak-side platoon COF, he's a great fit. Unless the brass give Miranda the LF gig out of ST, the Twins would benefit from having two RHB COF for platooning.

For the Saints or some Japanese team.

24 minutes ago, RpR said:

For the Saints or some Japanese team.

Harsh ?

If he can become a lefty masher, he has a 4-5 year career ahead of him. 

The best young corner OF ready for the MLB player in the organization is Miranda. He needs a place to play next year and has played some OF. The problem is that there's no place for Kirilloff to play every day with Sano, Donaldson and Arraez on the roster. Those 3 have 1b and 3b covered so we can't even move Sano back to 3B to give Kirilloff 1B. I think Kiriloff is the opening day LF next year and stays there for at least 1 season. The rest of that group doesn't look like much except for Larnach.