Twins Free Agent Targets: Starting Pitchers

Great job last night Seth and others. Agree with going for SP with some upside, don't like aging pitchers or too many injury concerns. One thing not discussed was Twins only have Pineda signed for one more year, would be great to find a midrange FA with some upside that could be the #3 pitcher after next year. Wes and the Twins have good eye for pitchers that need a little tweaking to upgrade their performance.

Interesting read, Seth. Add me to those who are excited for this year's Hot Stove League to begin.

Would be fine penciling Dobnak into the #5 slot as long as there was some competition for that spot. Don't know what to think about Thorpe and Smeltzer. Liked both a lot in 2019, not so much last summer. Ok to bring back, but need more competition for the #5 slot and depth. Could come from one of the younger prospects, a AAAA pitcher or two, and possibly a veteran reclamation project like Hill last year. Heck, who knows it could be Hill for the right dollars.

A lot of people are saying most teams lost north of $100M last year. Doubt the Twins lost that much, but expect it was closer to $100M than break-even. So we don't know what type of budget the FO is going to be working with, especially with no one knowing if fans will be back and how many? Will they have +/-$5M to work with, $10M or more? Doubt there will be the $30M needed to go after Bauer.

The pitcher I would be most interested in is on your list but not one of your targets, Odorizzi. Would be very comfortable with him back as our #3 or #4. Fill out the rotation with Dobber and the staff should again be a strong part of the 2021 Twins. That's assuming there is a season in 2021. 

Anyone care to predict what happens if fans are not present next year or if 25% of capacity is allowed? Are we going to have another 60 game season?  No season at all?  Is it possible the teams and union are discussing this without the fact they are negotiating leaking out to the public.  I doubt it but I can't imagine both sides have not recognized the need of addressing this issue. How do they determine a budget with a revenue swing of up to 40%. I would think spending is going to be extremely limited for most teams unless an agreement is reached that considers attendance.

Anyone care to predict what happens if fans are not present next year or if 25% of capacity is allowed? Are we going to have another 60 game season?  No season at all?  Is it possible the teams and union are discussing this without the fact they are negotiating leaking out to the public.  I doubt it but I can't imagine both sides have not recognized the need of addressing this issue. How do they determine a budget with a revenue swing of up to 40%. I would think spending is going to be extremely limited for most teams unless an agreement is reached that considers attendance.

If owners are forced to take a large cut in revenue, such as 25% or less fan capacity, there is absolutely no way they will not pass that along to the players.  It is (to a degree) up to the players on what form they want that to take.  The players can agree to a one-time reduction in pay, or not agree, and watch as the owners decline options and issue non-tenders while turning to prospects, all while greatly increasing the chances of a strike/lockout one year from now.

The Yankees non-tendered JA Happ today too. I'm not sure there will be a lot of upside among the non-tendered players (position players or pitchers) but there probably will be more interesting names in that pool than in the usual offseason. Happ sounds more appealing than about half this list at first glance.

Count me out on Bauer, unless that price comes way, way down.  Yes, he's been quite consistent, but he's only had one season (excluding 2020) above 3.3 WAR.  He's only had one season (excluding 2020) below a 3.88 FIP.  I'm not ready to reward that track record with a deal worth only $6M less than what Gerrit Cole makes.  Gerrit Cole had 3 seasons with a WAR above 3.3, and 6 seasons with a FIP below 3.33.

I also think Bauer's numbers from 2020 are likely to regress to the mean.  His BABIP was .215, by far the lowest of his career, despite his hard hit % going up, and his GB rate plummeting to a career low, which suggests a fair amount of luck.  This contributed to a strand rate of 90.9%, which is more than 10 percentage points above any other year in his career.  His fastball velocity also decreased, which is worrisome since he threw his fastball almost 50% of the time, and is about to turn 30.

None of this is to say I wouldn't be good with Bauer on the Twins, just for nowhere near $30M.  I'd much rather give Odo a 3 year, $39M deal, and then take flyers on Gausman (3 years, $30M with a mutual opt-out after 2022) and Smyly (1 year $5M with a second year option for $7M).  If Bauer does get $30M, those three would be cheaper than Bauer, give the Twins a better rotation foundation in 2022, and provide fantastic depth (Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe, Duran, and Balazovic can all stay in the minors until needed).  And not for nothing, but Gausman's FIP was only .21 worse than Bauer last year, and his xFIP was actually better.

Is Kluber going to be healthy? If so, then he is our best bet. Duran/Balazovic/Dobnak/Thorpe can hold down the 5th SP slot.

Odorizzi on a good salary for the Twins also works. 

Personally, I have zero interest in those listed above except Bauer-he's too rich for us.

This is a pretty big list of names that are decent starters and in a normal off-season would be looking for some big money.  However, we have seen teams not picking up options on a ton of players, some would have happened anyways, but my guess Brad Hand would normally been picked up, if for nothing else to look to trade him.  

I think any "normal" off-season thoughts on teams acting, and players signing deals will be out the window.  The question is, how many players will take below normal value deals just to play and make some money versus holding out and ignoring the fact MLB owners lost money last year and will expect to lose money next season, unless something changes quickly with COVID.

I think many 1 year deals with options for additional years will be in play this season.  I know many players will not want to do that, but if I was advising them, I would explain this is not a normal year.  Not only do we have COVID revenue issues, but in future we have CBA coming up.  This year showed how likely a strike/lockout will be.  My guess many teams will not want to have long term contracts wrapped up in that time as well, not knowing how it may shake out after. 

Bauer's 2020 numbers were assisted by the generally weak-hitting teams of the NL Central. Plus I'm not sure he's a good clubhouse presence. Most of the guys on the "target" list (maybe all except Fiers & Chatwood, but including Odo) are interesting to me and have shown they can be very good when healthy. I'd rather have two of them for $15-25MM combined than Bauer for $25-30MM.

Another tremendous podcast with outstanding thought and evaluation. Sorry I could only listen and not message in.

My thoughts:

I'm intrigued by Smyly if finally healthy. Injury history has me intrigued, however, as a 5th SP option. His arm talent, again if fully healthy, is there. And further removed from past injury makes him look all that much better. BUT, can he replicate 2020 results over a full season? That's why I view him as a 5th SP idea. And with payroll considerations, $4M with other young arms available and maybe other fliers may not make a fit with the Twins.

Gausman is one of those guys I always seem to forget about, though I recall some momentum for him here on TD over the last couple of seasons. I think he could be an ideal choice at 29yo for a multi-year deal, especially with Pineda only signed for one more. Not convinced the $10M is right as I'm still expecting bargains to abound. But he could be a bargain at that rate.

Robbie Ray HAS to deserve some extra love just because he's LH! I don't believe a staring staff is defined by having a quality LH option, but it sure is nice to have that option in your rotation! While there are a few pluses and minuses here and there, Ray and Gausman have almost identical career numbers across the board! And they are the same age.

My choice? Does it matter? The FO and Johnson know what they know and see what they see. I'd be happy with either of these two, but I would LOVE to see a quality LHSP option in the rotation so I'd like to see Ray as a choice here.

It's the Stoman vs Odorizzi debate where I get confused. Stoman has been connected to the Twins for some time now. And I wouldn't have a problem with his signing. But he and Odorizzi...as I posted in a different thread previously... are VERY similar to one another. They are only 1yr apart age wise. And if you insist on using WAR, Stoman has a slight advantage. But virtually EVERYTHING in their career numbers mirror one another from ERA to WHIP to BB/SO numbers. There is little separation between any of their numbers, except Oddo does have a higher K rate.

I have to lol a bit at the OP comment, sorry Seth, that Stoman is an "innings eater". He has averaged about 1 more out per over Odorizzi in their career. Just don't see how Oddo is limited as an IP per start pitcher but Stoman is an innings eater.

Somehow, someway, in a mystery payroll for 2021, the Twins need to add at least one more quality arm to the rotation. This could happen via trade. And the trade with the Marlins OP is very, very interesting. The idea that so many seem to be down on Odorizzi is surprising to me. And I will absolutely bow to the Twins management to make the final determination. But seems to me Oddo, Stoman, Gausman and Ray are all excellent choices to compete with Pineda for the 3/4 spot in the rotation for 2021.

My hope is, of course, they will pick the RIGHT ONE, and sign them for more than 1yr. Despite unknown financial situations, it seems to me any of these 4 could be great additions and may well appreciate some sort of financial security. And it would seem all 4 could be had for $10M TOPS for a 1yr. I'd like to hope the RIGHT ONE might consider the security of a reasonable 2-3yr deal.

Stroman is interesting...I wonder if he's a 1-year guy looking to rehab his value before gunning for a big contract in a more normal environment? If so, he could be a good fit for the Twins who would likely be comfortable with a 1 year deal, and Stroman might be interested in working with Wes Johnson.

Gausman is the guy I think I want; I was interested in him going into last season and getting him out of Balto almost immediately improved his standing. I'd love for him to get the proper coaching and support from the Twins over a couple of seasons...but I really don't know what kind of a deal he's looking for. But I would really look hard there.

I'm a big no on Bauer, who I think is a bad fit in the clubhouse and unlikely to match last year. I think someone is going to throw a lot of years at him too, and regardless of what he might be saying I think he'll take it.

Also a no is Ray, who looks like a mess. Fixing a player's control is a bigger challenge and Ray has never been strong in that area. age 26-28 seasons should be right in his prime...and he got progressively worse in those years: he may have peaked at 25. You can write off last year to COVID, but he wasn't great in 2019 and was only a little better (if less healthy) in 2018. So there's huge risk there and I'm not sure how much upside is there, despite the great K rates. The peripherals are only great in one area and there's plenty of red flags on this guy. He's literally had one really good/great season: outside of that, he's a 4th/5th starter. There's so much that needs fixing there that I don't think he's a great option. And with that trash control, he's not even a guy that you'd be all that excited about shifting to the bullpen if he falls apart as a starter.

Surprised not to see Kluber on this list. He's an interesting rehab guy. If he gets healthy, he could be a huge upside play and that move has worked out ok for the Twins before.