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  • Let the Learning Commence for Twins Brass


    Ted Schwerzler

    It’s easy to sit back and blame the front office or manager for the mess that has been the Minnesota Twins 2021 season. To do so rings hollow without context, and the time to learn has begun for future success.

    Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

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    Former Twins World Series MVP brought up the idea that the organization has failed and changed direction due to the results of 2021. He’s not alone in suggesting that narrative, but to say such a result reflects organizational failure also conveniently ignores what took place the previous four years of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s tenure.

    There’s no denying that 2021 has gone poorly. Most importantly, the Twins pitching has fallen flat. The front office banked on J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, and some mediocre bullpen additions to supplement a roster looking to rise. As injuries took their toll and ineffective play became prevalent, the entirety of the ship went up in flames.

    Looking back, though, this front office helped to architect a 26-win improvement and Postseason berth in their first season, as well as having won the division in back-to-back seasons before this year. 2019 will forever go down as among the best in franchise history, and the installment of Rocco Baldelli in 2019 has led to a .550 winning percentage through his first three seasons.

    Now that praises have been sung, and reality has been levied, it’s time for the trio to grow.

    For the first time in their tenure, Falvey and Levine fell short. They flopped on Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison previously, but this is a club that had heightened expectations, and virtually every acquisition or move of substance from this offseason went up in flames. Without embarking on a complete rebuild, they’ve traded the club’s ace and now could be without Kenta Maeda in the year ahead as well.

    The Twins don’t have the best farm system in baseball, and although they’ve been ranked closer to the middle, intriguing depth is there. Unfortunately, there’s been a host of arm injuries across baseball following the 2020 shutdown in the minors, and Minnesota’s best prospects have been hit especially hard. Falvey and Levine will need to work with internal staff to ensure those players' health and future projection while not relying solely on them for a return to relevance in 2022 and beyond.

    The duo will need to make a better showing than their track record has proven on the acquisition front. Unfortunately, free agency is often a field of landmines, but some teams avoid hitting them all, and Falvey will need to stop the string of consistent blowups. Spending should remain relatively intact, but supplementing the Twins back to the top won’t come entirely through the dollar on the open market.

    There should be belief in the infrastructure set up since Falvey and Levine have taken over. From baseball operations to the development and coaching staff, there are plenty of talented individuals guiding players down the right path. Putting moldable pieces in front of them should continue to be the goal, and the assumption is that the process will bear positive results.

    In the dugout, Rocco has his first chance to grow as well. Having dealt with adversity that everyone experienced in 2020 is different than fighting through a season in which results consistently left something to be desired. Baldelli has done well to connect with his players, and he’s been praised for decisions when things have gone right. Unfortunately, all of the coin flips went wrong to start the year, and he’s doubled down with some questionable steps at times since.

    For the former Rays star, the expectation should be that new faces (and possibly some younger ones) will filter into Target Field during the final month and into 2022. Baldelli will have to put his best foot forward when maximizing their potential while putting them in a position to best capitalize on the opportunity.

    Right now, the answers aren’t immediately evident, and this writer doesn’t pretend to have them all. That said, it will be on Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli to show they have the chops to find them. Everyone feels content when things are going well, but through adversity, you’re able to grow and presented with it for the first time that trio has their most significant opportunity yet.

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    17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    ...Apparently, everyone has the skillset required to run a baseball organization...

    Lots of people have the skill set to compare results between competing products or services, especially when there is data to review.

    • Drafting and development (how have the draft picks advanced and played relative to their peers?)
    • Maintaining team control (has the team protected their interests in players?)
    • Trade results (what value did the team receive for its players?)
    • Free Agency Signings (how well did free agent players perform relative to cost)
    • Team Results (how well did the front office address the team's needs?)

    Do you have the skillset to play major league baseball? If not, how can you make posts judging a player's performance? Same answer. By comparing that player to their peers. The process isn't different than choosing a good toilet paper, the best pizza or the best car. The only thing that changes is the dataset you're using.

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    1 hour ago, sjunisu said:

    we have yet to see the fruits of the Escobar and Pressley trades (which were made some time ago) and both would be useful pieces to this team now

    Both were free agents years ago, though. The Twins wouldn't have either unless they signed them at free agent prices.

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    I believe Falvey's relative youth played a role in his hiring, and then likewise with Levine. The point of hiring youth versus a retread is that there is the potential for growth. I'm not impressed with the results so far, but I expect that ownership will give this FO a lot more leeway to continue to improve, than I probably would.  Replacing at the very top is an expensive proposition in multiple dimensions, versus letting the FO learn from mistakes. The key is whether they view anything as mistakes versus bad luck.  I expect they talk a good game when reviewing results with ownership.

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    1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    Both were free agents years ago, though. The Twins wouldn't have either unless they signed them at free agent prices.

    You are correct - however, it seems to be much easier to get a player to sign with their existing team than come back to a team which traded them.  Escobar signed for 3/21 in 2018 which I would definitely rather have at that price than Donaldson at 20M+ per (plus I believe Escobar liked playing here prior and was really good in the clubhouse).  Pressley had an additional yr control and signed 2/17.5 plus an option another contract I would definitely take over the likes of Colome.  Plus the fact of the matter is none of the trade assets have seen quality time w/ Twins (Alcala has been less than average and Celistino was clearly overmatched what we saw).  Point is, the Twins would be better off with both of these players (w/ the FA contracts) and Gil/Ynoa than what we got out of all 4 of those trades.  Had those trades never happened, 2022 would be looking a bit brighter right now.

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    On 8/28/2021 at 1:45 PM, Seth Stohs said:

    Viola is a pitching coach in the independent Atlantic League. 

    Rocco Baldelli has 20+ years over experience in baseball, from prospect, to player, to injured player, to retiring player, to scout, to coach, to front office, and now manager of people. If we can't question Viola's comments, then maybe we can't question Baldelli's decisions either all the time?

    Levine has been in front offices for a long time, including a couple of World Series teams. Falvey has played, scouted, and been in a variety of front office roles for 15ish years. 

    Good resumes, but this doesn't address the issues the teams have today.

    Viola is mirroring what the 1991 Championship team said in every interview they had during their anniversary celebrations.  The only difference is Viola was more direct.  It's obvious to us the team isn't firing on all cylinders, and it's also clear that these players, many of whom also have impressive resumes, all spotted the same thing playing out behind the scenes when they were in town socializing with the team.

    The 1991 Championship was not a slam dunk.  That team worked very hard.  They finished the previous year in last place.  They started slow and were in last place for most of the first month of the season.  I dare say if the 2001 team railed out a 15-game winning streak in June as what happened in 91, we'd be having different conversations right now.  That team went from 6th place to 1st place in less than 3 weeks, and I'm guessing launch angles had nothing to do with it.

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    On 8/28/2021 at 2:03 PM, a-wan said:

    The Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox called. They'd like to give up their recent World Series trophies because their players didn't use enough heart because of the analytics departments.

    Wha?  The Cubs was playing just like the 1991 Twins team was.  You could see the team spirit.  Same with the Red Sox.

     

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    20 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

    I agree with the criticisms to a degree.  Want to rip them that everything they did for this team this year was a total failure?  Hell yeah.  And they were over confident they could just fix anyone.

    But impugning analytics generally?  At that point you're off the rails.

    OK, but Viola did not do that in his tweet.  He may have done that elsewhere.

    If I say french fries are stupid and then talk about riding in airplanes, is my opinion on airplanes null and void because you don't like what I said about french fries?  Silly statement I guess, because yes that's where we are now as a society...

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    16 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

    OK, but Viola did not do that in his tweet.  He may have done that elsewhere.

    If I say french fries are stupid and then talk about riding in airplanes, is my opinion on airplanes null and void because you don't like what I said about french fries?  Silly statement I guess, because yes that's where we are now as a society...

    Except he then retweeted his wife saying this (shortly after retweeting yet another anti-tech/analytics piece about robot umpires): 

    Leadership begets Leadership... what is the organizational mantra? The Twins of the 80's & 90's were built upon fundamentals, team chemistry, players arrived early and left late because they loved being there. Analytics won't replace hard work & a big heart... ask Kirby Puckett!

    Ripping analytics was a clear implication and subtext to his post.  As if analytics is opposed to fundamentals.  It's implying the team doesn't care about clubhouse culture and attitude....despite being the FO and manager who has prioritized that more than any in my lifetime.  Your tortured analogy only works if you are complaining about airplanes because they serve french fries.  At which point, yes, the two opinions are tied together and I can examine your reasons on both and how you wed them together.

    He can have those opinions, but then he can be criticized for them as well.  Pretending they don't exist or weren't the point is silly. 

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    7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

    Except he then retweeted his wife saying this (shortly after retweeting yet another anti-tech/analytics piece about robot umpires): 

    Leadership begets Leadership... what is the organizational mantra? The Twins of the 80's & 90's were built upon fundamentals, team chemistry, players arrived early and left late because they loved being there. Analytics won't replace hard work & a big heart... ask Kirby Puckett!

    Ripping analytics was a clear implication and subtext to his post.  As if analytics is opposed to fundamentals.  It's implying the team doesn't care about clubhouse culture and attitude....despite being the FO and manager who has prioritized that more than any in my lifetime.  Your tortured analogy only works if you are complaining about airplanes because they serve french fries.  At which point, yes, the two opinions are tied together and I can examine your reasons on both and how you wed them together.

    He can have those opinions, but then he can be criticized for them as well.  Pretending they don't exist or weren't the point is silly. 

    Is he wrong that analytics doesn't replace playing the game and working hard?  Objectively, I think we can all agree that he is not wrong.

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    32 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

    Wha?  The Cubs was playing just like the 1991 Twins team was.  You could see the team spirit.  Same with the Red Sox.

     

    *blinks* *blinks*

    So in your world good teams and heart have r = 1 and bad teams and heart are r = -1?

    Can we get a list of heart-filled teams? Is Tampa Bay filled with heart this year and Baltimore isn't?

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    Just now, a-wan said:

    *blinks* *blinks*

    So in your world good teams and heart have r = 1 and bad teams and heart are r = -1?

    Can we get a list of heart-filled teams? Is Tampa Bay filled with heart this year and Baltimore isn't?

    I'm don't recall saying anything about hearts, but if you want to go at it with a straw man, that's fine with me.  I'll sit back and watch.

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    2 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

    Is he wrong that analytics doesn't replace playing the game and working hard?  Objectively, I think we can all agree that he is not wrong.

    Did the Twins organization send out a press release with a headline like "Twins Declare Hard Work for Suckers and Old Fogeys.  Team will Play the Game the Wrong Way, with Calculators in their Pocket Protectors"

    If no, then I guess Frank really kicked the stuffing out of that strawman.  Even got you to be his sidekick on that silly fallacy.

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    On 8/27/2021 at 10:11 PM, bean5302 said:

    Honestly, it probably doesn't matter much what I think of the front office. I don't expect Jim to give me a call and seek my advice on whether or not he should keep Falvey and Levine employed.

    Leaders don't wait for phone calls, right?  Give St. Peter your analysis.  If he does the predictable thing and tosses your analysis into the trash and yells at his secretary for allowing a fan to reach him unsolicited, but then the team continues to fail, that's on him.  I probably wouldn't go right to Pohlad because I think he only has one eye on the team, if even that.

    This sounds snarky, and it is a bit, but it's also serious at the same time.  Things actually do change when people step up and do these things.  The effort is a failure 99.8% of the time, but nonetheless it's the only way to make change happen.  St. Peter, after all, got his job by stepping out in this way.

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    For what it's worth ... I was listening to "The Front Office" on MLB network while driving this weekend.  They were actually talking about the Met's failure this year and what they should do about it.  Their solution was to do whatever it takes to get Theo Epstein including giving him partial ownership.  Their back-up plan was to get Derek Falvey.  They were emphatic to the point of suggesting they give him a 10 year $100M contract.  Point being this is what impartial observers who have actually had a GM job think of Falvey.

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    3 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

    Leaders don't wait for phone calls, right?  Give St. Peter your analysis.  If he does the predictable thing and tosses your analysis into the trash and yells at his secretary for allowing a fan to reach him unsolicited, but then the team continues to fail, that's on him.  I probably wouldn't go right to Pohlad because I think he only has one eye on the team, if even that.

    This sounds snarky, and it is a bit, but it's also serious at the same time.  Things actually do change when people step up and do these things.  The effort is a failure 99.8% of the time, but nonetheless it's the only way to make change happen.  St. Peter, after all, got his job by stepping out in this way.

    I'm a fan posting on a Twins site with quite limited information. In order to put together a valuable analysis with enough merit to result in action on Falvey's employment, I'd have to devote hundreds of hours to the project and depend on the cooperation of coaches and players inside the Twins organization sharing generally withheld information about development and scouts outside the organization as well. I don't care enough about the situation to devote my time to a project like that without being compensated, a lot. At the end of the effort, I could actually come to the conclusion Falvey is doing an excellent job, I might add.

    Aside from that, why would I send this to Dave St. Peter? Falvey reports to Jim Pohlad. If you're looking at titles, I could see where you'd assume Falvey was a direct report of St. Peter, but they're different branches of the organizational tree. St. Peter outranks Falvey by a fair margin, but the reporting structures branch off at Pohlad. It'd be like sharing an analysis of the Director of Marketing's performance with the Chief Technology Officer.

    You are correct, though. St. Peter's executive assistant, Danielle Berg, would screen any such communication before St. Peter even got a glimpse of it for numerous reasons. 

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