Twins Extension Candidate: Michael Pineda

I’m a big Pineda fan. Thought it was a great deal when they signed him to two years coming back from TJS and another two years last off-season. 

In my mind, he was a 170-inning pitcher in 2019, given that he missed four starts at year end. Very small sample this year, but he was definitely effective. 

So if 2020 and 2021 were at $10M each, would he go for another $10M in 2022, with a $10M option for 2023, with perhaps a $2M buyout? That guarantees him an additional $12M for the extra year.

Despite his loss at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, what he has done performance wise has been excellent. He was a very smart acquisition by the FO. I'm glad to have him back for 2021.

Any sort of extension, in my mind, is not based on what he has done thus far. It's based on 2 key points that we don't know yet:

1] Who do the Twins add? Do we sign Odorizzi or someone else via FA or trade? We NEED one more SP. But whoever we add, if it's only a 1yr deal, that could raise Pineda's value.

2] How close do the Twins view Duran, Balazovic, Chalmers and Ober as being ready?

There is no such thing as a bad 1yr contract, right? No insult, but after the suspension, I would think another 1yr deal for $10M...MAYBE $12M...would be in order. You could offer a similar 2nd year with a $2M buyout. And I'd be OK with that. Quality SP is worth an aweful lot. And Pineda comes cheap, potentially. But with some talented young arms on the way...before we see what the FO does...I'm balking at anything other than a 1yr with a decent 2nd year and an affordable buyout.

I don't think we saw enough of Pineda in 2020 to justify another deal with him. I'd rather wait to see how he pitches the 2021 season and go from there.

I don’t believe he would sign at $10 million per year and not sure I would go more than that.

I would definitely give it a shot. The Twins need quality starting pitching and to assume the prospects are going to slide right in there is a fool’s errand. For that matter they need to bring Odo back as well.

  I like Big Mike.  Not sure how much of a commitment beyond 2021 is feasible though.  I'd think if they can get him to agree to a reasonable dollar amount, the FO will jump.  With reduced revenue, I'm not sure what "reasonable" looks like.  Fortunately, guys like Falvey and Levine are FAR smarter about this than I am.  At some point, club is going to have to figure out what it has in guys like Duran, Balezovic, Chalmers, etc..

The last four years he has won 6,8,11,2 games - I would not call that dependable.  Suspensions and injuries.  What are we paying for?  Would I extend him - yes for no more than two years and for a very team friendly contract - he owes the team more than they owe him. 

By the way I know people don't like wins anymore, but a starting pitcher should still reach double figures with some regularity.  

Would guess he would want at least 2 years... so 3 year deal... at 12 mil per. With the third year being a team option. Or .... just let this play out... trade him at the trade deadline and bring up his replacement.... one of our young studs.... His call. Take it or we move on...