Twins Daily Roundtable: Floundered

SD Buhr:
 

But Sano has hit just 2 home runs in 64 at-bats at Ft. Myers and let’s face it, hitting for power is really the ONLY thing this guy brings to the table at this point. If he can’t do that three levels below the big leagues, that’s more than just a little discouraging.

Kinda depressing topic ...but a lot to discuss and debate, sadly.

With regard to Sano, I agree that he's very relevant for the topic...but to use Ft. Myers HR numbers to make the argument?  My presumption would be that he's at Ft. Myers to do everything BUT work on his power stroke....including things that would initially inhibit his HR rate, like letting the ball get deeper and learning how to get certain pitches and drive the ball to center and right.  Of the 101 things to worry about with Sano, his long-term ability to hit a ball over the fence comes in at 102, IMO.

While I agree Sano has been a disappointment, we have to remember that he was coming off an injury and had the prospect of a suspension hanging over of his head.  It stands to reason that consciously or unconsciously Sano and the team were fully prepared for a 50 game suspension with the silver lining that it would give him time to fully come back from his injury and give him the jolt he needed to get his head together.  It almost seems like the franchise and Sano were caught flat footed by the dismissal of the allegations.  What is happening with Sano now - is essentially what would have happened had he been suspended. So it is fair to say that his performance, while disappointing, was not unexpected.  As a result, I am hopeful that we will still see him in August with a new attitude and more conditioned body.   

Buxton, on the other hand, is the major disappointment - for all the reasons described.   Most troubling is the injury albatross around his neck.  The guy can't seem to stay on the field for any extended amount of time.   I have to believe that his health has complicated his struggles.  I don't see him making any meaningful contribution this year - not until September at least.  

Serious question: do statcast projections take shifts into account? Because, if they don’t they would seem pretty meaningless and would explain a lot of “underperformance”. But how can they, because not every team shifts player X exactly the same way?

To me, it's Buxton and it's not even close. Sano and Morrison...major disappointments, to be sure. But there's no doubt that both of them are MLB players and can compete at the MLB level - whether that's with the Twins, or someone else. While Morrison's career may be winding down, he's got the track record suggesting he'll catch up...that's not much, but it's something. Ditto for Sano. Aside from his massive slump after returning from his hamstring injury this season, he's been above average as a player for his entire career. He has a future and I'm guessing we'll see him back in Target Field soon.

Buxton, on the other hand, is at the point in his career where people are legitimately questioning whether he's a major league-caliber player. Aside from a hot 2-month stretch last season, he's really not done much to merit a spot on the roster due to his offensive ineptitude. He's become an easy out in a league (and at a position) where players can't afford to be completely incompetent at the plate. We could be watching a documentary in 20 years titled "The Sure Thing That Wasn't" or something like that on ESPN. Sure, the Twins can be patient. But if he comes back next spring and struggles out of the gate...we could be facing the reality that Bux just ain't a major leaguer. He's got plenty of excuses but at some point you just have to do the thing.

I think the biggest disappointment was Polanco with his failed drug he needlessly missed half a season when we needed all hands on deck to stop the offensive slide.

Sano was a close second cause i give injury / problems caused by own doing
50/50 credit.

But having Polanco available would have allowed Escobar to DH more giving us a better lineup and a few more first half wins. Buxtons issues started with headaches. I dont know if his slumps started before or after the headaches and with playing while injured. I think he could be up at some point in August....

Sano has to loose weight and fix swing. He will need till late August minimum for weight.

And Buxton and Sano are definately big losses and letdowns. Polancos was of his own doing. And when you sabatoge yourself, that is the biggest disappointment.

Note i do forgive Polanco and hope this doesnt happen again and he hits over .800+ OPS for the rest of the season. But we need all the offense we can get now.

Also moving forward its going to be Buxton/ Sano until they re-establish themselves.  but that is from today going forward and not in the first half.  I am confidant Polanco will be part of the solution moving forward.  

I know there are some computer gurus out there that can probably figure this out. But my question is.... Have there been any real superstar athletes in baseball that have been sent down to the minors as many times as Buxton has?? I mean I see guys like trout and etc.... When they finally get the call they for the most part, stay up?? I can see being sent down once, but it would be interesting to see how many great players have been sent down multiple time like Buxton has. I would bet there hasn't been many?

I know there are some computer gurus out there that can probably figure this out. But my question is.... Have there been any real superstar athletes in baseball that have been sent down to the minors as many times as Buxton has?? I mean I see guys like trout and etc.... When they finally get the call they for the most part, stay up?? I can see being sent down once, but it would be interesting to see how many great players have been sent down multiple time like Buxton has. I would bet there hasn't been many?

I think Torii Hunter got sent up-down a bunch of times. And how about that Max Muncey in LA? Dude's killing it right now, made the All-Star team and HR Derby at age 27. He got sent down, dumped, outrighted, re-assigned...seems to have found his stride, much to the chagrin of the Oakland A's. Guys like him are boogymen because it makes a team never want to give up on a player - just in case.

But as for mega-stars? Bonds, Griffey, Trout, A-Rod, Jeter, Harper type guys? No. They weren't on the shuttle bus.

I'm a little surprised my candidate didn't get discussed: Max Kepler.

Kepler doesn't have the excuse of injury to explain his struggles, and simply has not taken that step forward we were looking for. he had a hot start in Mar/April, struggled in May, was a disaster in June and has had a good start to July. But right now he's nowhere near the hitter we were hoping for and his abysmal BA and lack of power so far is making him look much more like a 4th OF than a guy who can be a staple in the OF for the next 5 years.

Morrison has been unlucky and bad, but I didn't expect as much out of him: his signing always felt like a "well, this guy is out there for cheap, why not add the bat?" rather than a "we're counting on Logan Morrison". Buxton and sano have had injuries which is a shame, but...it happens. yes, neither has hit like we need when in the lineup, but I might actually be more concerned about the guy who is healthy and isn't hitting than the guys who haven't had that same health.

I'm not giving up on Kepler, but he faded badly last season and has had a poor first half. He needs to start mashing RHP or instead of holding down RF as a mainstay he's going to be fighting with Lamonte Wade for the 4th OF job, and that's a waste of talent.

A good team, a team that makes a playoff run and into the World Series, you look at the numbers for position players, and there are multiple career high players on that team.

That's the way it goes in MLB: your team succeeds, it's because of players having great years.

The Twins in 2018?

It's all about who has let us down. And the list is long, starting, alarmingly enough, with our best young players -- Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler -- and including our best veteran players, Dozier, Mauer, Santana, Castro, Morrison, Lynn, Reed.

So, are the Twins still in this?

No.  No way.

Can they make it interesting and have meaningful games.

Maybe.  That would be a great achievement at this point.

But they can't pretend to contend for anything of substance.

And there are many, many players who have contributed to their lackluster play.

Sure, there have been worse years for the team, but, one could argue, that, individually, and based on potential, this team has been, pound for pound, the most disappointing team in Twins' history.

And, that's saying something.

Kepler will put up around 2 WAR this year.....and is league median for RF. Has he been great? No. Is he bad? Not even close.

He's got an OPS+ of 97 and his positive fWAR is based almost entirely on his defensive contributions. He's got a BA under .230, had long stretches where he's looked lost at the plate, and his power production has slipped a little this year.

He's not a bad player, but he sure is a disappointment this season.

I know there are some computer gurus out there that can probably figure this out. But my question is.... Have there been any real superstar athletes in baseball that have been sent down to the minors as many times as Buxton has?? I mean I see guys like trout and etc.... When they finally get the call they for the most part, stay up?? I can see being sent down once, but it would be interesting to see how many great players have been sent down multiple time like Buxton has. I would bet there hasn't been many?

I'm no computer guru. But the frustrations with Buxton often remind me of Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon was up and down from AAA and struggled with injuries for more than two years before sticking with the Rockies. Now he's an MVP candidate and fitness freak.

I think Buxton's struggles this year have primarily related to injuries (migraines and broken toe), and he can and will overcome them. Once his health stabilizes, he's going to be a stud.

And I believe the same about Sano.