Twins Daily Roundtable: Fixing the Offense

Getting Mauer back is a good first step, but we still need Buxton and Polanco in the lineup every day to stay in the hunt. I would leave Sano in the minors until he becomes a world beater again. 

I submit that the most important Twin to ignite the Twins' offense is the one in the batter's box. Now wait a moment before you dismiss my comment. Think of all the  Twins' "swing for the fence" swings that have been fanning the air. Think of the grounders straight into the shift by Twins' hitters, resulting in  easy ground outs or a line drive right into the shift. Think of all the runners stranded on 1B and 2B because the Twins' batter would not/could not "bunt them over" or hit behind the runner.  We have mentioned lack of power (except the 2 Eds who lead the American League in extra base hits by a teammate duo). How about some more singles, some more walks, and some more hitting to the opposite field from all the Twins' batters. How about playing for 1 run, instead of everyone trying to hit homers. We have better pitching than in recent years  so small-ball will produce better results, since our opponents are scoring less runs per game. With good pitching, low scoring games will be more frequent. Look at the Twins' record this year in  one run games (3-13). I submit this pitiful record in one run games is a clue. The Twin in the batter's box needs to get on base by any means, advance the runner, knock the runner in by any means possible, and then score that one run that each batter represents...not by constantly swinging for  home runs, but by playing as a team.  

The Twins are missing four players from the opening day lineup, three of whom were expected to be major offensive contributors this season. Step One is to get two of them back and contributing positively on offense: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. I don't care what two. Just two.

It would also help if someone not named Ed that is on the current lineup could step up and elevate their game. Again, pick two from a group that includes Logan Morrison, Brian Dozier or Max Kepler. 

Invariably, one of the Eds is going to slow down some. So you need three or four guys to step up and make a difference.

Dozier needs to step it up and Mauer needs to be healthy for the Twins to stay in the Central race. That's the key right now.

Polanco, Buxton and Sano all have to contribute if they are going to compete in the 2nd half. At least one of them has to return to his best offensive form. That's doable but they have to stay within 5 games of the Indians before the break.

I don't think any of this is especially surprising, or something that shouldn't have been foreseen by the FO.

Deep down, I think everyone knows it's inevitable that Dozier just won't break out of the "slump." I use quotes because he "slumps" so often I'm not sure you can really call it that. It's more his norm.

Kepler, Buxton, Garver, and Morrison should come as surprises to no one. None of the young guys has had a significant track record of production that you can point to, and I think we're seeing why nobody wanted to sign Morrison (he's useless when he's not hitting HRs, and he's in a park tough on lefties).

Nobody should be surprised when Mauer misses time with an injury at this point. Any games he can give you is basically a bonus. The next slide into a base or dive for a ball might be the last time he's on an MLB diamond as a player.

The rest of the lineup was clearly sub par from the jump (LaMarre, Adrianza, Wilson, Grossman, Petit, etc).

How can we count on Polanco for anything? He was awful for a while, and his hot stretch was promptly followed by a positive PED test. Also, Escobar filled his role for a while before Sano went down, likely a lot better than Polanco would have.

As far as Sano goes, we've been hearing these rumblings and concerns for years. Nothing shocking there.

The surprises to me are: Rosario, and Escobar. But, they are a positive development that is helping, not hurting.

So, my point is, I'm sure there is some flabbergasting question on how to get this group of personnel to perform. The problem isn't a mystery out there in the ether. The problem is that a lot of these guys just aren't that good. The second half of last year was a result of an ridiculously unlikely alignment of the stars. Expecting this group of guys to be the top offense in the American League was always an extremely flawed supposition.

Nothing like an unaligned, flawed suppository to ruin your season.

Short Term - Dozier

Long Term - Sano

I feel compelled to go against the trend and say that the batter that they need is not on the club.  The analysis through the comments and posting are really clear on many things.  Sano is a mess that needs a lot to get on track and that might start until August - September, Buxton has been a guess and swish hitter throughout his career except for his 1/2 year surge.  In fact if the Twins can play only half a season we can half Polanco and his PED half, Buxton's out of no where half and Dozier having his half season and we are excellent.  But 81 games takes care of the NBA not the MLB.  

Kepler has only an occasional one or two weeks and has fallen far below my expectations.  Morrison was covered by LA Vikes Fan who looks at his career, not his exception and gives us just what we have got - not much.  Adrianza is a utility player who is playing too much. 

LaMarre and his revolving partner - Cave is not the answer.  And Garver and Bobby Wilson give us a black hole at Catcher.  Grossman's big offensive contribution is a walk and his best defense is when he plays DH.

Which obviously leads us to the one player/batter left on the roster - Taylor Motter.  That must be what we are needing.  Go Taylor.   

There is no one else on the 40 man roster.

Lets start with whats wrong with the offense.

2B Dozier is slumping

SS Polanco was suspended but will be back im two/three weeks and his replacement has actually been ok, Adriannza with a .725 ish OPS. This looks bad because we need bats so bad but he is about a league average bat with good defense and baserunning...

DH Morrison slumping with power and average.

C Castro Injured and out for the season

3B,1B,DH Sano lost and in A Ball to loose weight and regain batting swing.

CF Buxton slumping and injured.

RF Kepler and Grossman. Both are not far from being productive. Both need improvements in average.

3 things need to occur to fix the offense.

1. Buxton needs to come back with an .800-.850 OPS minimum.

2. Either Morrison or Dozier or both need to decide to step up and hit .800-.850 OPS minimum

3. C is as close to an automatic out as can be. We need a hitter who can have a .750 OPS and we probably need to aquire him. Tampa has this guy and we can probably trade for him. Or Garver has to step up and decide to hit.

If these three things happen our lineup will score a lot more.

Bonus. I think we will see a Sano that is 15-20 lbs lighter and ready to go come August 1-15th ish...

While it's one of the most unlikely, the one guy who would totally ignite this bunch is Buxton. His speed turns a simple walk into a double. He has gap power plus. Operating like he did last half last year, this is a completely different offense. But I am not sure if he will reach that level this year, although I still think it will happen in his career. The guy with the best track record of half season resurrections is of course Dozier. He can certainly hang up the stats, even though I have never been convinced he can do it consistently in high leverage situations. The reason I didn't consider Sano is I don't think he will be in contention for the task this year. He isn't going to go down to FL, then to Rochester and mash MiLB pitching and be back anytime soon. This is likely the FO giving Sano his last chance to resurrect his career in MN. They aren't going to rush the process, frankly I think they will slow walk it.

He's more than a defensive asset Ted!

Agreed. Take that, Ted!

Why is everyone piling on Ted?

The Twins hitters , except for Joe, and the Eddies, all suffer from Big Dawg envy.  Sano and Dozier seem to only look for a pitch up and in that they can hit out. That means they are conceding 3/4 of the strike zone to major league pitchers. Dumb, that. Buck was doing the same thing. Wanting to pull everything. Buck, more than anyone should be an opposite field hitter. Hey Buck, do you have any idea how many triples you can hit if you looked for outside pitches you can hit the other way?

These guys want to pull everything. Sheesh, didn't their little league coaches teach them ANYTHING?  Which brings me to the point.... what is the hitting coach teaching them about situational hitting?  Looks like NADA. 

The Eddies and Joe look for a pitch to hit. And they go with the pitch to make good contact on the sweet spot. Buck, Doze and Sano, and to a lesser extent Keps, all look to pull the ball.  They wanna hit homers like the big kids. But it is extremely rare that you can pull an outside pitch and pitchers know that.  You don't think major league pitcher see film? 

The Twins are in a collective slump because their hitting coach is focused on mechanics instead of hitting strategy and logic. These guys go up to the plate trying to put a square peg in a round hole, because they wanna be big dawgs. If they looked for a fat outside pitch --- which they will see every time up -- they could get good contact. But they wanna hit homers like the big dawgs, so they end up down in the count and waving at strike 3. 

As for LoMo. Methinks he needs glasses. 

Everyone on the team needs to change their name to Ed.

One of the problems with the Twins offense going on several years is that Brian Dozier should never have been the leadoff hitter.  Joe Mauer should have been.  Dozier should have hit 3rd with Sano (assuming hitting well) 4th.  

You put your best OBP player at the top of the lineup.  YOu put a guy like Dozier with good power but mediocre OBP and high K rate 3rd.  Your high OBP slugger hits 4th.  

Bill James has taught from Day 1 of Sabermetrics, the key to scoring runs is getting guys on base.   Putting Dozier at the top of the lineup was always a mistake.

Got to agree that Dozier is "the most important player for invigorating the Twins offense".    The faster the Twins get rid of him, his mediocre production, and his mopping about not getting an extension, the better they will be.

That axe of yours is already plenty sharp, contribute to the discussion, or move on.

Surprisingly, it seems that Sano and Buxton have ended up swinging at the same pitch for strike three constantly throughout the first half. It is good that they are not in the line-up at this point. 

Maybe Buxton feels as if he should be be vogueing Andre Dawson because everyone keeps reminding him of that. Maybe they should be telling him to think more like Mickey Rivers. He's so fast that putting the ball on the ground will cause defenses all kinds of problems. Let the home runs come when they come, but don't press for the long ball. Get on base and create havoc. He's shown that he can steal on almost anyone, so just getting to first base is almost like hitting double. If he starts doing that and perfecting it, he'll likely end up getting more walks as well.

That's my two yen worth.

Short Term - Dozier

 

Long Term - Sano

Yes. We’re talking who has the ability to make a big step up offensively from what they’ve contributed so far this year. It’s most likely Dozier right now...although Morrison and Kepler would be nice, as well.

One of the problems with the Twins offense going on several years is that Brian Dozier should never have been the leadoff hitter.  Joe Mauer should have been.  Dozier should have hit 3rd with Sano (assuming hitting well) 4th.  

 

You put your best OBP player at the top of the lineup.  YOu put a guy like Dozier with good power but mediocre OBP and high K rate 3rd.  Your high OBP slugger hits 4th.  

 

Bill James has taught from Day 1 of Sabermetrics, the key to scoring runs is getting guys on base.   Putting Dozier at the top of the lineup was always a mistake.

https://www.fangraphs.com/community/when-slugging-percentage-beats-on-base-percentage/

Slugging percentage has been better indicator during Mauer's career..  Dozier scored 100 runs a year, so it was working. He just needs to start hitting again.

Nobody should be an opposite field hitter. Pulling the ball is how you hit for power, and hitters should always look to hit with power.

 

Rod Carew, Carl Yazstremski, and Wade Boggs all did okay, if I recall.