Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #9 Louie Varland, RHP

20 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

As much as he's improved his stuff from where it was when he was drafted, Varland still lacks the pure velocity or secondary quality of other pitchers in the Twins' current rotation mix, and others on this top prospects list. But there's something to be said for having the confidence and pace to execute as consistently as he does on the mound, including pressure-packed situations. 

Another thing working for Varland, particularly in the context of Minnesota's current situation, is his dependability and durability. He's one of the few on this list (or currently in the majors) who's been able to reliably take the mound each fifth day without issue. Last year between the majors and minors he threw 150 innings, which is more than any Twins pitcher has totaled since 2019

Perhaps this will allow him to have a long, productive career in professional baseball! The current philosophy of encouraging young pitchers to be flamethrowers is craziness and creating an endless line of pitchers sidelined by shoulder and elbow issues.

Hopefully, he can make the jump to a spot in the rotation this year.  It's not like he is 22 years old anymore.......

I like Varland. I think he needs to sharpen his offspeed pitches and reduce his walks to really be successful in MLB, but he certainly has shown that he can adapt and grow as a pitcher so far during his career. If he can keep building out that change-up, for example, as an out pitch I think that will really help him. The fastball plays, even if it's not a plus velocity (he can dial it up to 97mph, though, so there's capacity) and I think he someone who can chew up innings and get results. Avoid free passes and that WHIP starts looking much better.

He's a heck of a success story. Great developmental work by the team, and finding those lower-round, less heralded picks and turning them into real prospects is incredibly important. Varland's got the right make up to be a success and showed he can improve his tools through work and process. Love it. He'll be pitching in the rotation this season and be locked in for next season, I think.

Varland is the perfect #5 pitcher precisely because he gives a team innings and a competitive outing. An ERA at or just below 4.00 and 5-6 innings per start from the #5 starter will keep the team in most games and almost certainly be a better performance than another team's #5 starter (granted these guys do not match up all the time). 

Despite several Twins projecting as more accomplished pitchers, I would choose Varland for the last rotation slot because of his consistency.

I love Varland and what he has done.  Absolutely amazing story and just a great man giving it everything he has to get this far. NIck that was a brutally honest assessment of Varland and I agree with it.

Just for reference below are last years 2022 AA numbers for Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk.  Their numbers are very similar with Varland having a better K rate and WHIP and Funderburk with the better ERA and FIP.  One of these pitchers is rated in Minnesota's top 10 the other isn't even mentioned in the top thirty.

What does that tell me?  One of these players is either overrated or underrated. 

I am rooting hard for Varland even if he is a 5th starter as we need controllable pitchers that can take the mound every turn and  provide Quality work.  Here's hoping Louie is a Twin and in the rotation for a good long time.

Can he be our next Dave Goltz?  I hope so and I hope we start making room for these young players in the rotation.

My hope is Varland becomes the kind of guy that people just keep saying, how does he keep doing well, despite not having the normal velo, or movements we think.  Maybe, just maybe, he will be a real pitcher that knows how to get guys out with location, change in speeds. I can say he will have more success then several of the top pitchers taken in his draft, which that right there is something to be happy about. 

Great article, Nick.  I like Varland, and I am pulling for this kid.  One thing I like about him is that he seems coachable.  We see so many young pitchers with great potential struggle and flame out, including some Twins picks in recent years, that it is refreshing to see someone who lacks overpowering stuff be productive and effective.  Some players outperform their analytics (Varland), and some underperform their analytics (Pagan).  It much like the NFL Combine--some players put up otherworldly numbers, but never make a huge impact, while others have more modest basic skills and become All Pros.  It is one of the reasons that prospects are so much fun, you never really know what you have until they step on a major league diamond.  That being said, until Varland has been around the league a bit and players see him more, we won't know for sure how his stuff plays in the long run.  

Sounds like he is a Bundy clone with an extra 5 mph on his fastball according to this article.

Love watching Varland pitch. No nonsense....right back to the rubber and waiting for the sign and next pitch. New rules no effect on his approach. Looking forward to him breaking into the top five sometime soon. 

The good news for Varland - in ‘23 he should get plenty of MLB starts; in fact, his competition for those starts (Ober, Winder and SWR) should all see a good number of majors starts due to injury, fatigue, or trades of 3 or 4 of our projected starters.

He will then be in a position to be compete with those three for the final two spots in our ‘24 breaking camp rotation behind Ryan, Lopez and probably one more addition (i.e. an extended Mahle, Gray or Maeda or someone new).

If he can throw 150+ innings of about 4.00 era ball over 25-30 starts per year for five years starting in ‘24, he will be a indispensable, inexpensive cog in our next open window. There is coveted place in the world of MLB for pitchers like that.

Lot to like here.
 

Durability .. Something to be said about the last man standing ..

So what I'm reading is Varland can pitch- proving it by working his way up from a 15th round draft choice, up through all levels of the minor leagues, winning pitcher of the year award, having a successful major league debut - but he can't pitch, because he lacks real heat and his secondary pitches are not good enough.  Well, I'll take his results. I would keep putting him out there until his results say he can't pitch.

There was a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves (John Smoltz?) who got great results despite throwing "soft". There is more to pitching than throwing fast. Whatever that is, Varland has it.  I hope the Twins will consider his results after spring training, instead of holding on to the preconceived idea that he can't pitch because analytics say so.

4 minutes ago, Mike h said:

There was a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves (John Smoltz?) who got great results despite throwing "soft". There is more to pitching than throwing fast. Whatever that is, Varland has it.  I hope the Twins will consider his results after spring training, instead of holding on to the preconceived idea that he can't pitch because analytics say so.

Smoltz had a 98 MPH four seam fastball and a nasty 91 MPH splitter. Varland has neither of those.

Are you thinking of Greg Maddux? Maddux didn't have huge velocity but his fastball had movement and he hit his spots better than anyone else in baseball.

I agree there is more than velocity - movement, location and pitch sequencing are important - but velocity sure does help a lot.

I'd save a spot in the rotation for him to earn. A lot of the time I don't think batters were ready to hit against a guy who was immediately back on the mound and ready with the next pitch. This year they will have to be, but that doesn't mean he will lose his effectiveness.

As I read the quotes I think about all the "junkball" pitchers who made big careers despite not having the blazing fastball.

Stu Miller won 105 games and gained 27 WAR. He pitched 26 years.  

Yes, it was Maddox I was thinking of. Thank you for the correction.

In two full seasons he's gone from 15th round pick to maybe a #3-#5 starter. Hopefully we're talking about maybe a #1-#3 starter by this time next year.  Easy guy to root for.

I will caution that the vast majority those sift-tossing pitcher examples have not thrown an inning during the career of most MLB players. The game is different and there are fewer Doug Jones and Jamie Moyers around than ever. It's not just a stylistic thing either: batters can get in the cage and see as many changeups off the pitching machine as they want. There's film and analytics on when each pitch comes in the sequence and what each pitchers' tendencies are. It was hard to get by with an 88mph heater 15 years ago and it's even harder today. 

Luckily Varland is more Brad Radke than Jamie Moyer. He's got a fairly normal repertoire and can reach back for the big one when he needs to so hitters have to honor the fastball. I think his challenge is simply having to become a pitcher earlier in his career than the throwers who can get further into their career on power and crazy stuff.  

Let's call Varland's velocity "94 plus."

Plus, he hasn't blown out his arm, like most pitchers that try to throw 96.

Plus, he gets guys out.

Plus, he's an innings eater. 

Twins have a young, healthy pitcher that can go every fifth day, but doesn't quite hit the upper 90's. He might even pick up a couple ticks naturally, as sometimes happens with experience. I'd find a reason to put this guy in the rotation before mid season.

9 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Luckily Varland is more Brad Radke than Jamie Moyer

Yes, I was actually thinking Radke, or, as MikeLink45 pointed out, Goltz would be a wonderful ceiling for Varland.

Having said that, I’d take a floor of 150+ frames, 25-30 starts and an era around 4.00 over each the next five years on essentially league minimum any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Loved the young man I saw on the mound at Yankee stadium and his next four games.  Considering how little experience he has, would think all his pitches will improve beginning next week.  Will be shocked if he isn't much higher than a #5 starter in future Twins rotations.

Like many of you, am tired of seeing the first thing mentioned what his velo is...or isn't.  Have to wonder where the experts would have ranked Brad Radke the year before his joining the Twins as one of their top pitchers for what was it, a decade?

Had a chance to talk to an old timer, maybe 20 or so years ago.  One of the young Legion players at the banquet wanted to get into a debate with him about throwing hard.  What I recall is a response that was more about refining all your pitches and being able to throw them when and where you wanted.  He certainly never threw hard, doubt he ever broke 90.  Yet, he went on to win more games in MLB than any other left handed pitcher.  As he said, Velocity ain't all that important if you know how to pitch.

Not sure why Varland is being discussed in the soft tosser category.  Almost half of his fastballs were thrown harder than the MLB average.  Add in his well above average extension on his release point and the "effective velocity" perceived by hitters is generally above average.

We'll have to see how his secondaries perform.  Seems like he's already had some pretty good success with the changeup at the MLB level.  He seems to be a guy who has been steadily improving though, so I think he will end up looking underrated here.

3 hours ago, Dman said:

I love Varland and what he has done.  Absolutely amazing story and just a great man giving it everything he has to get this far. NIck that was a brutally honest assessment of Varland and I agree with it.

Just for reference below are last years 2022 AA numbers for Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk.  Their numbers are very similar with Varland having a better K rate and WHIP and Funderburk with the better ERA and FIP.  One of these pitchers is rated in Minnesota's top 10 the other isn't even mentioned in the top thirty.

What does that tell me?  One of these players is either overrated or underrated. 

I am rooting hard for Varland even if he is a 5th starter as we need controllable pitchers that can take the mound every turn and  provide Quality work.  Here's hoping Louie is a Twin and in the rotation for a good long time.

 

There are plenty of additional comparisons you could make though.

Funderburk was a year older, and a third of his innings came in relief.  He pitched 5 or more innings in only 6 outings compared to 26 outings for Varland (including in his 5 major league starts).

Varland's stint in AA was also his high water mark for ERA and FIP for any minor league level/season, so he does have a stronger overall track record vs Funderburk.

Probably you are right that Funderburk has been vastly underappreciated, because he has generally put up strong numbers throughout the minors.  I don't know a ton about his stuff, but I think he doesn't show up on lists for the same reason that Laweryson isn't a top 10 prospect.  He's succeeded with some deception and pitchability, despite not having amazing velocity or a carrying pitch.  Probably his role in the majors would be a crafty lefty reliever, which is a lot different than Varland who so far has demonstrated that he could be a starter.

59 minutes ago, roger said:

Loved the young man I saw on the mound at Yankee stadium and his next four games.  Considering how little experience he has, would think all his pitches will improve beginning next week.  Will be shocked if he isn't much higher than a #5 starter in future Twins rotations.

Like many of you, am tired of seeing the first thing mentioned what his velo is...or isn't.  Have to wonder where the experts would have ranked Brad Radke the year before his joining the Twins as one of their top pitchers for what was it, a decade?

Had a chance to talk to an old timer, maybe 20 or so years ago.  One of the young Legion players at the banquet wanted to get into a debate with him about throwing hard.  What I recall is a response that was more about refining all your pitches and being able to throw them when and where you wanted.  He certainly never threw hard, doubt he ever broke 90.  Yet, he went on to win more games in MLB than any other left handed pitcher.  As he said, Velocity ain't all that important if you know how to pitch.

I think they would have looked at Radke's WHIP, his ability to keep the ball in the park, generate groundballs, his plus changeup, his durability in moving up from low A to AA in 2 seasons and thought "this guy's a prospect!" Radke had an excellent season in AA at age 21 and got promoted to MLB the next season (likely a year too early, but the 1995 Twins stunk, needed the help, and they could afford to let him learn on the job). I don't think they would have written off Brad Radke just because he didn't have high K/9 and a blazing fastball.

I think most of the posters complaining about the Twins pitching today would also complain about Radke "not being an ace" if Twins daily had been around back then too, so...

Varland has enough gas to compete, but he'll need to sharpen the offspeed stuff and cut down the walks to be mentioned in the same sentence as Brad Radke.

93MPH is fine if you can PITCH! Moving the ball - throwing strikes - getting guys out.

Varland is a 4th-5th MLB starter now for a whole bunch of teams. If he can eat innings and stays healthy, he’s on the staff for good starting in ‘24.

2024 Pitching Staff - Starters:

Lopez - Mahle (assuming health) - Ryan - Varland - Paddock ………maybe Maeda as a long reliever in ‘24………..another prospect that has a nice year  in ‘23 may displace Mahle or Maeda depending upon our ability to sign either of them.

9th prospect is in the mix!