Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #7 Connor Prielipp, LHP

Definitely excited about Prielipp, and I find myself hunting for a silver lining in his injury. Obviously you never want to have to go through the TJ surgery/recovery process, but if you have to, you'd want to do it young when your can body heal and develop much more quickly. For Prielipp to have already had TJ at 22 and still flash top-of-the-rotation stuff is impressive and speaks to the raw potential.

Obviously this view ignores the not-insignificant re-injury risk associated with TJ, but I'm choosing to view it differently. He has so little inning mileage on his arm compared to a standard college pitcher that I can convince myself he is actually in an OK spot as it relates to arm health. I think that most college arms hit their ceiling in school and don't have a ton left to grow. As the article points out, Prielipp has a lot of room for development and still likely would've been a dominant force had he been able to play at Alabama.

I'm hoping I'm not proven wrong with injury setbacks/lack of development, but it's very exciting for the Twins to have a pitching prospect in the system with the potential to be a #1 guy in the rotation, especially given the team's struggles to bring in such a pitcher via free agency.

First off I fully agree potential supersedes production often on these prospect lists. In the same token, it takes true talent and stuff to make it to the big leagues and then be successful.  Ok so let’s talk honestly, his raw stuff in 2020 and 2021 was elite even for college pitchers.  This is what makes the scouts and projections state he has the potential to be an ace or a #2 pitcher. Now 

lets be clear he hasn’t pitched in 2 years (not 3 as has been stated). Honestly I think one of the biggest thing that hurt Priellip last year in the draft was making the decision early to not pitch and to only focus on the scouts in controlled outings. There was no sacrifice for the team this was clearly what he thought would best serve him in the draft. Even still by all standards he was well in the recovery window to slow play it.  If I have any red flag, this might be it I see #1 pitchers ultimately as bulldogs wanting the ball and will run through a brick wall, this may have been a smart play but also very passive. Had he came out even in relief and struck out a couple of the top hitters he is a top 15 pick.  
 

Otherwise one injury or tommy John doesn’t make a player injury prone. In some cases it takes that risk down significantly in the future.  I think health wise we will be pleasantly. Surprised.  As to the stuff if he pitches the way I expect him to he will be top 5 in the prospect rankings in short order.  Right now if he shows he can produce even in the lower levels his prospect ranking sky rockets.  I wish good health and stand out performances.  

12 hours ago, old nurse said:

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/24/2821479/minor-league-ball-baseball-top-120-prospects-for-2012

2012 minor league ball top 120. Nowhere on that list do you see Brian Dozier’s name. He debuted that year for the Twins. Put up 20 some bwar.  Somewhere in the 30s is Sano.  I think he is still in the single digits.  Just a reminder of rankings don’t always mean much.

On that list you will also find Lindor’s name pretty high up there at the time of the ranking he had 20PA and a .666 OPS. Just a reminder the guess on talent are actually right

Dozier didn't make the list because he was considered old for a prospect, he didn't debut until he was 25, he bucked the odds with 3 great years 2 good years and 2 good years and was done by age 32. He is one of the better players ever to debut at 25, which should be a reminder to all when you are talking about prospects this age that aren't in the majors you really should be realistic and think they could be role players.

If you look at that list, look how many players are still playing and at a high level, sure they missed on some, (who is Brett Jackson at 27?) Looks at the players that are still playing at an all star level. Harper, Trout, Darvish, Machado, Cole, Arendado, guys ranked in the top 13. That doesn't include guys ranked lower, Wheeler, Rizzo, Lindor, Yelich, Bell, Springer....

You can basically bet if guys don't end up nationally ranked they won't ever be all stars, yes they miss some but again the odds say......

Excited to see what he does this year, but all this hype without seeing anything reminds me a whole lot of Tyler Jay 

10 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

To me, Tommy John is not very scary anymore.

Seth, I appreciate you and your opinions, but can I ask why? I've read that the re-injury rate for players who've had Tommy John surgery is a whopping 57%. Does it seem wise for a team who has struggled to keep pitchers in the pipeline healthy to bet on a prospect with very high odds of re-injury?

It makes me wonder if other teams are learning to shy away from these kinds of picks.

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Dozier didn't make the list because he was considered old for a prospect, he didn't debut until he was 25, he bucked the odds with 3 great years 2 good years and 2 good years and was done by age 32. He is one of the better players ever to debut at 25, which should be a reminder to all when you are talking about prospects this age that aren't in the majors you really should be realistic and think they could be role players.

If you look at that list, look how many players are still playing and at a high level, sure they missed on some, (who is Brett Jackson at 27?) Looks at the players that are still playing at an all star level. Harper, Trout, Darvish, Machado, Cole, Arendado, guys ranked in the top 13. That doesn't include guys ranked lower, Wheeler, Rizzo, Lindor, Yelich, Bell, Springer....

You can basically bet if guys don't end up nationally ranked they won't ever be all stars, yes they miss some but again the odds say......

Dozier was an all star and got votes 3 years in a row for MVP. Middle infielders tend to be done at age 32. There will be a few exceptions at the all star level, back up level, but for some reason that is a trend. Outfield and the corners go longer., but it tends to be the corner positions. Age for prospects as far as a team goes, if the pipeline brings you 5 good. To great years out df a player teams will gladly take that. Those are the cheap years

Arraez was also unbanked as a prospect and an all star

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

No one outside Minnesota hyped him, and even that was muted. Nothing about them is similar, imo.

They both have a left arm. 🤣

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Seth, I appreciate you and your opinions, but can I ask why? I've read that the re-injury rate for players who've had Tommy John surgery is a whopping 57%. Does it seem wise for a team who has struggled to keep pitchers in the pipeline healthy to bet on a prospect with very high odds of re-injury?

It makes me wonder if other teams are learning to shy away from these kinds of picks.

A 43% chance of getting an elite arm in the 2nd round of the draft is well worth the risk.

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Dozier didn't make the list because he was considered old for a prospect, he didn't debut until he was 25, he bucked the odds with 3 great years 2 good years and 2 good years and was done by age 32. He is one of the better players ever to debut at 25, which should be a reminder to all when you are talking about prospects this age that aren't in the majors you really should be realistic and think they could be role players.

If you look at that list, look how many players are still playing and at a high level, sure they missed on some, (who is Brett Jackson at 27?) Looks at the players that are still playing at an all star level. Harper, Trout, Darvish, Machado, Cole, Arendado, guys ranked in the top 13. That doesn't include guys ranked lower, Wheeler, Rizzo, Lindor, Yelich, Bell, Springer....

You can basically bet if guys don't end up nationally ranked they won't ever be all stars, yes they miss some but again the odds say......

Looking back at lists like this are telling. An observation or two that make me more optimistic about Priellipp:

If prospect talent was evenly distributed (it's not of course), each team would have their top 4 prospects represented on this Top 120 list, which theoretically would mean that each team's #4 prospect would show up in the list as #'s 101-120. (Seth BTW has Prellipp at #4 for the Twins).

Looking at #101-120 on this 2012 list, I see only THREE(!) propsects who never made it to the majors. That said, only 4 of those 17 amassed 10 WAR or more. So, most had unremarkable careers and short careers. In fact, only TWO of them are still playing (Baez and Robbie Grossman).

This type of history is why I have optimism about the very top prospects making it, but pessimism that once they do, their chances of amounting to something are quite slim. I make an exception regarding the top 2-3 prospects on a given team, (See Trout and Darvish on this list.)

This is why I am in favor of moving prospects like Hajjar or Povich, or even Petty, for a MLB return to fill a need. I mean, guys like Headrick and Festa are fun to dream on, and when an Ober or Winder hits, that's pretty fun. Because it's so very rare!

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Dozier was an all star and got votes 3 years in a row for MVP. Middle infielders tend to be done at age 32. There will be a few exceptions at the all star level, back up level, but for some reason that is a trend. Outfield and the corners go longer., but it tends to be the corner positions. Age for prospects as far as a team goes, if the pipeline brings you 5 good. To great years out df a player teams will gladly take that. Those are the cheap years

Arraez was also unbanked as a prospect and an all star

IMO prospects ranking based on the odds they become All Star type players or how they compare to other players of similiar ages and skills. Like I said Dozier bucked the odds by becoming an all star one time, IMO middle infielders tend to be done earlier is because they lack some of the skills needed to play into their middle or late 30's and can be replaced by younger cheaper talent and when they come up in their mid 20's their career will tend to be shorter.

I mentioned in another thread why Arraez wasn't a highly ranked prospect (lack of power, lack of speed and lack of position) and as he proved his bat to ball skills played against tougher competition he moved up the rankings and was in the majors at age 22.

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

A 43% chance of getting an elite arm in the 2nd round of the draft is well worth the risk.

Maybe. But it probably depends on who you passed up along the way. A very good pitcher with a much smaller chance of needing TJ might be a lot better than an elite pitcher who is quickly re-injured.

I'm sure someone on TD will do an article in 2028 on whom the Twins picked and whom they skipped. I'm hoping luck favors their choice, but don't think that's yet been the case.

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No one outside Minnesota hyped him, and even that was muted. Nothing about them is similar, imo.

The diamondbacks were very close to selecting Jay number one overall so yeah he was very much hyped up. Both had very similar size and a fastball/slider/change up repertoire all thrown at similar speeds.

Jay was trying to move from a reliever to a starter 

Prielipp hasn’t pitched in 3 years. Similar hurdles 

I get why people are excited but I’ve seen him ranked as high as 4 on twins prospect lists. That’s ridiculous. If he showcased the same stuff but was a 5’9 righty nobody would know his name. 

If I was the Twins FO I would make the pick for Prielipp the overwhelming majority of the time, dependent upon who is still on the board of course.  The odds of him becoming an Ace are against him but you have to take that chance as this FO. Should he be ranked this high? Maybe not. But why would you put say Varland or Miller or anyone lower ahead of him? This is a prospect ranking.