Twins Appear to Trend Towards Pool Savings on Day 2

Like top of Twins draft, the under-slotting is what I dislike most about the MLB draft. In the NFL does a team not take a player in the 4th round because they can't afford to-"pool savings", so they take a lesser player. Think MLB draftees should be in or out, maybe give opportunity to change mind after first and second days. 

I like Schobel the more I read about him. I think he's a "gamer" and Neto-lite who the FO actually likes.

The rest of today was, clearly and understandably, about low cost and some "cheap" upside that may turn out

I'm OK with that.

Ortega is interesting at 2B and a possible surprise. The various SS all bring some hit ability and varying degrees of potential, but if even ONE jumps out, you WIN. (You still need to field teams throughout your system). 

A couple of arms that are a bit "meh", but have BP potential. time

But I do have interest in Matthews and Lewis as tall/long arms who could both project with tutelage in the Twins syatem while concentrating on baseball full time going forward.

And recent draft history shows the Twins have done well in both day 2 and day 3 with solid/interesting projects. But today was still clearly, again, about the first couple of picks and a little "hope" cast out. No problem!

I agree the first day was a dream draft for the Twins and to get there, sacrifices have to be made.  They rangled in arguably the drafts best college hitter and possibly one of its top pitchers and also secured a player many scouts felt was underrated in Schobel.  Day one was an amazing day and I can't say I have been more excited about a Twins draft in the top 2 rounds probably ever (Maybe Kirilloffs draft year with the three second round picks).

Still for as little as I know about a lot of the second day picks I was pretty excited about Ross and Ortega who both have interesting hit tools and Ortega might have a little bit of that CES magic in him so that is exciting.  Ross seems more like an Arraez type contact hitter with maybe not quite as good an eye at the plate and he comes from a weaker conference so hard to say how he will do once he turns pro.  Still I really liked both picks and if they are money savers to boot all the better.

I have to admit Once you get past the 3rd round pitchers seem essentially a dime a dozen to me.  There just is no way to know what they will be able to do until given a chance to develop in pro ball.  Sure the stronger the traits the better the odds but ranking them at this point seems impractical.  

Yes I would have been one of the fans looking for that toolsy outfielder in the top ten but the Twins do have some young options coming up there in Rosario, Rodriguez, Urbina, Aguire, and maybe Fedko so they didn't "need" to grab one this year.  I didn't love all the utility player picks essentially 5 of the ten picks are guys who might fall off the shortstop position but as everyone always says you can't draft too many shortstops. It just seemed a bit odd to ignore the catcher and outfield positions all together in the top 10.  

Bottom line I still love this draft.  We discuss this on the board all the time and if you are a prospect watcher you have probably experienced this as well.  The guys at the top have the best chance to make an impact at the MLB level.  The Twins took three good swings there with their top three picks.  If they maybe missed out on some later talent it probably doesn't matter as much as finding money for Prielipp and Lee, investing in the higher end talent.  Doesn't mean it is all going to work out but IMO it was a good strategy.  I am still stoked about this draft.

Certainly enough SS/2B in the system now. Javier's days are numbered and I'm also expecting a trade from these positions, maybe Steer but also, if the Twins want a high end starter, maybe Polanco.

The Twins went for the high end guys early in the draft. I think that's what most wanted here in TD. I liked it. We'll see how it ends up.

Jeremy, Jim Kaat was playing when MLB started the draft, he would prefer free agency. In regards to under-slotting, would definitely rather see Twins draft best available early and under-slot in later rounds than under=slot early. Quality over quantity.

Kept watching to see who they picked.  Didn’t know anything about any, but saw that most were ranked to be picked lower than taken.  Told me the Twins got two studs at the top and were working to get the X millions more to sign them.  Should they get two good starters from this draft and nothing else, it is a great draft.

A lot of money saving going on today. In a vacuum today's picks would sound rather uninspiring to me but that's the price of going for two highly regarded guys early. 

I'm really looking forward to what the Twins do tomorrow, though. Seems like they saved money with almost every pick today. I hope they grab one or two of those falling HS pitchers that they could try to sign if they end up having some money left.

Todays pick confirms even more what the twins talent evaluators and front office thought of yesterdays picks, they knocked it out of the park, and today was saving every Penny for the 3 big ticket items they got on day 1.  It also tells you they think Lee is a shortstop with an elite bat, and Priellip was a top 15-20 prospect in their eyes and can be a top end starter for the Twins. Schobel was the cherry on top.  Based on their actions I think the front office thinks all 3 of these players are going to be key pieces in the future and they were willing to sacrifice day 2 for that. 
 

To me day 2 looks like a lot of lottery picks.  You have a second baseman that had tommy John and came out of no where to be a key player for Tennesse. We took a couple more shortstops from small schools with excellent bat skills for the levels they played at.  As for the pitchers the early picks don’t stand out, but towards the end we ended with their stand by tall pitchers with high K/9.  I think these pitchers would have normally been late day 2 to early day 3 picks. I have full confidence that the Twins will find a gem or two out of the day 2 or even day 3 pitchers and or hitters that will be drafted tomorrow. They have earned that right from the 2019 and 2021 drafts.  More and more I am disappointed the Twins missed out on a full draft in 2020.  
 

We have one more day to fill up on more lotto tickets, while we continue to admire our big purchases we got on day 1. Boy does this draft feel good.  
 

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Certainly enough SS/2B in the system now. Javier's days are numbered and I'm also expecting a trade from these positions, maybe Steer but also, if the Twins want a high end starter, maybe Polanco.

Teams who are trading to compete typically aren't trading away their best offensive MLB player - or even their 2nd or 3rd best - when making a deal.

I believe only MLB talent that will leave Minnesota are guys they want to kick off the team and the 40-man roster, much like Logan Forsythe was in the Dozier deal a few years back. The Dodgers didn't want him and needed a place for Dozier to play, so the Twins took Forsythe as a courtesy, and hence got a better prospect from LA in exchange for being open to doing so.

Twins may be open to getting rid of veterans like Sano or even Kepler, but I don't think they're going to find many takers unless they package them with Royce Lewis-types.

As for Polanco, I just can't see him being traded. Twins offense just isn't anywhere near good enough to survive losing a guy like that.

It appears the Twins really had a "diamond in the rough" day 2.  I think it's going to take at least 2.5 mil to sign Prielipp, maybe 3 mil.  The underslotting I think starts with Schobel, perhaps by 500k.  His slot is 1 mil, but the slot for where he was ranked is around 200k.  This is where the Twins will get most of the money for Prielipp.  As it's not yet enough, voila! Day 2's draft.

I'm not as confident in the Twins finding those diamonds on the infield as I am on the mound, and I'm not sure what sort of input Wes Johnson had on draft day, so my fingers are crossed that they found a couple of prospects on Day 2.

13 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

Jeremy, Jim Kaat was playing when MLB started the draft, he would prefer free agency. In regards to under-slotting, would definitely rather see Twins draft best available early and under-slot in later rounds than under=slot early. Quality over quantity.

I think they may have done that and maybe that is what you are stating. Was their purpose of any under slot picks in rounds 3-10 to gather enough savings to pay Prielipp in round 2 over his slot amount? 

Have they really hit it out of the park ???

Most would think that the twins have discussed contract with player drafted on day one before drafting the player ...

If the draft of day one is going to be successful  they have to get them signed first ....

They are 3 good picks to be excited about  ....

Day two doesn't  look all that good with the crap shoot  ,,, I too hope the evaluators found some good talent  on day two but saving money isn't finding quality players to play at the mlb level  .....

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

It appears the Twins really had a "diamond in the rough" day 2.  I think it's going to take at least 2.5 mil to sign Prielipp, maybe 3 mil.  The underslotting I think starts with Schobel, perhaps by 500k.  His slot is 1 mil, but the slot for where he was ranked is around 200k.  This is where the Twins will get most of the money for Prielipp.  As it's not yet enough, voila! Day 2's draft.

I'm not as confident in the Twins finding those diamonds on the infield as I am on the mound, and I'm not sure what sort of input Wes Johnson had on draft day, so my fingers are crossed that they found a couple of prospects on Day 2.

Prielipp is going to sign.  He wants to be a pro.....now.  He doesn't want to wait.  College baseball was his showcase.  I saw a couple of Bama games and on at least 2 occasions it was "intimated" that some weren't happy with him that he was sitting out the whole season and not even considering coming back toward the end of the season to help out the team and make a run in the CWS.  He sat out to protect his professional stock and avoid any chance at injury.  No way he goes back to play another year of college baseball.  If the Twins make him a reasonable offer, he will sign.  I wonder if the parameters of a deal were already in place. 

Day 2 is almost always a crap shot if you look at history.  Not many players make it to the majors after the first few rounds.  Take a look at the 2015 draft.  Most players taken in 2015 would have contributed at the major league level by now if they were going to....especially the college guys.  What do we see?

Round 5 - One player with more than 1 WAR - Ryan Helsley

Round 6 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Steven Duggar and David Fletcher

Round 7 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Dylan Moore and Jake Cronenworth (I'll even throw in Jovani Moran, who is at .5 and probably makes it over 1 eventually)

Round 8 - One player, Chris Paddack...hopefully he makes it back from surgery.

Round 9 - Nobody over 1 WAR, although LaMont Wade is getting close.

Round 10 - Nobody over 1 WAR.  

Contrast that to round 1 of 2015.  19 of the players selected have accumulated more than 1 WAR.  Many are already stars (Bregman, Tucker, Swanson, Buehler).  Unfortunately the Twins drafted Tyler Jay.

The lesson:  Get the first couple of picks right, and after that you are just praying to hit a lottery number.

I never expect to know what to think about day 2 immediately after it happens.

Seems like Morris has some talent for the dev team to work with, and Lewis sounds like the best early candidate to the guy that comes out next year with improved stuff, though you really can't predict when or where that might happen.

Ortega also sounds like a bit of a late bloomer a la Encarnacion-Strand, so I have some hope for a continued breakout from him as well.

I think they might take a shot or two at a potential overslot guy today in case they end up with extra savings from day 2. It won't count against their pool if they don't sign someone today so there could still be some good value left to get.

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Have they really hit it out of the park ???

Most would think that the twins have discussed contract with player drafted on day one before drafting the player ...

If the draft of day one is going to be successful  they have to get them signed first ....

They are 3 good picks to be excited about  ....

Day two doesn't  look all that good with the crap shoot  ,,, I too hope the evaluators found some good talent  on day two but saving money isn't finding quality players to play at the mlb level  .....

 

If you can find a top of the rotation starter and a player they feel very confident will be a major league player, possibly at SS or 3rd,  with the potential for a utility player;  that is an excellent draft any day of the year.  If the can find 1, 2 or 3 rotational pieces for the field or pitching (4th or 5th start or RP)   this draft would be a home run.  There is a long way to go and prospects are a crap shoot but this feels better at the top than say a 2019 draft where we were counting on Cavaco to develop.  Lee is fairly close to major league ready.  Will likely be in AA by next year.  Priellip   may take some time to heal and get stronger,  but will likely be pushing for time on the big league team in 2025 or 2026.  We received higher end talent than we get most years with a higher probability of hitting and also being very very good players, possibly all stars ect.  

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you know him? I mean generally speaking every kid in the draft wants to be a pro asap, but that doesn't mean they all sign, or would sign for less than they think they deserve. If I were going to bet I'd guess he signs as I'm sure the Twins knew what it'd take to sign both Lee and him before they drafted them and knew they could fit them both in with their pool money. But I wouldn't say it's a for sure thing.

He wouldn't have to go back to college if he decides not to sign. They'll have to offer him what he wants (again, I assume they knew what that number is and feel comfortable they can hit it) or he'd certainly think about going the Rocker route and hiding away for the next 8 months before throwing a couple independent ball games and skyrocketing up boards if he's showing what he was as a freshman. Prielipp has leverage and will not sign just because he wants to be a pro now. He's going to get his money. The parameters of a deal were 100% discussed before the draft, but it was likely about the possibility of him going 8th overall, not 48th so his price will be high.

Didn't mean to infer that I know him, just what I'd heard.  He was healthy enough (from what I heard) to pitch at the end of the college season but shut it down to prepare for his pro career.  The Rocker route makes no sense.  The only reason Rocker went independent ball was the Mets literally didn't make him a contract offer due to medical red flags.  I doubt that's the case here.  The independent route has not worked out for anyone in the past that i can think of......just my 2 cents.  

The Twins will sign their picks.

The slot money system is required. The old system had players slide to the bigger market teams by promising much more money. Imagine Yankees at the back of the first round promise Brooks Lee $12 million. Lee's agent tells all that $12 million is the number and Lee drops to the Yankees pick.

The slot money system brings a lot of strategy to the draft (see Rangers and Cubs this year).  We don't know if the Twins drafted certain players after the first day for skill or value or both. 

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you know him? I mean generally speaking every kid in the draft wants to be a pro asap, but that doesn't mean they all sign, or would sign for less than they think they deserve. If I were going to bet I'd guess he signs as I'm sure the Twins knew what it'd take to sign both Lee and him before they drafted them and knew they could fit them both in with their pool money. But I wouldn't say it's a for sure thing.

He wouldn't have to go back to college if he decides not to sign. They'll have to offer him what he wants (again, I assume they knew what that number is and feel comfortable they can hit it) or he'd certainly think about going the Rocker route and hiding away for the next 8 months before throwing a couple independent ball games and skyrocketing up boards if he's showing what he was as a freshman. Prielipp has leverage and will not sign just because he wants to be a pro now. He's going to get his money. The parameters of a deal were 100% discussed before the draft, but it was likely about the possibility of him going 8th overall, not 48th so his price will be high.

The parameters would have been discussed before they picked him at 48th.  They wouldn't have just gone in blind and hoped they could figure it out.  They knew the number then came up with dollar slots they could spend at draft picks 2 comp, and 4-10.   They know what they are doing.  Priellip doesn't sign and he is in a similar situation to Rocker is making less than he would have had he signed last year.  He should have made his medical available before the draft.  

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, I said multiple times in that post that the Twins likely knew his number before picking him and had a plan to get both him and Lee signed. But they also didn't expect those 2 guys to be there at 8 and 48 and it may have become a much more tight window they are trying to squeeze through. They talk with 100% of the guys they're looking at in the top 10 rounds to get an idea of their demands in order to sketch out a plan and then make decisions as things come up. But Prielipp likely didn't think he was falling to #48 and maybe he's mad, or feeling disrespected, and his number changed. Maybe Lee was mad he fell to 8 and his number changed. They had ideas and clearly felt they could/can make the pool money work. But it's never a done deal until the players sign on the line.

They didn't call Prielipp Sunday night to discuss his demands again as he started to fall. They talked to him before the draft and it's far more likely they were talking about what it'd cost to take him at 8, and, while that may seem inconsequential to us, that's a big difference from going #48. We're still talking about humans and they have emotions and that can change things. Maybe he was willing to come to MN at a certain price if he was a top 10 pick even if he really didn't want to be here, but at 48 he doesn't have the prestige of being a top 10 pick so he will demand more to come to a place he doesn't want to be. Maybe his personal goal was to be a top 10 pick and he's willing to wait another year to make that dream come true. The Twins absolutely know what they're doing, but that doesn't make this all a done deal. There are guys every year that don't sign for a variety of reasons.

They were absolutely on the phone with the agent to discuss the numbers during the draft.   This is a common occurrence.  Players will usually say my agent got a call. FYI they would have been doing this all day yesterday calling players and saying will you take 100k, will you take 40k to save money likely for Prielipp.  Basically they are discussing the financials to assume both are on the same page.  Now on Day 3 teams may take some flyers like we did with Birdsell last year.  You don't mess around with someone you are willing to spend 2.5 to 4 million dollars on.   He is going to likely end up with 1st round money.   Even if he is getting a little less than he expected before the draft there is no way he is risking 1st round money to try again next year.  Just as the above person commented, he wasn't willing to play this year even though he could have to not jeopardize his draft standing.   I am saying this is a done deal.  If you don't want to fine, that's your prerogative.   

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Those conversations happen before draft day. They talk to the player, their reps, and their families before the draft and get an idea of where their price tag is. They aren't calling in between round 2 picks when there's a minute between picks. They aren't calling guys on day 2 and trying to figure out their contract demands then. That's not happening. They adjust their draft board and take the 100k guys off and only draft the 40k guys if that's what it takes to sign guys they drafted earlier. They aren't making those calls during the draft. They know their asking price based on conversations before the draft, not during.

Players literally turn down 1st round money every single year in the MLB draft. Every year. Brooks Lee famously told teams coming out of HS that he wouldn't sign for mid to late round money as he felt he was a top 3 talent. Players turn down "first round money" every year. Judd Fabian turned down 2 million from the Red Sox last year after going in the second because he thought he was worth 3 million and wanted to prove himself and be drafted again this year. Didn't work out great for him as he was drafted later this year than last year, but he's an example that players absolutely "jeopardize their draft standing."

There was almost 3 hours between pick 8 and 48.   Pretty sure someone was calling an agent or two to verify numbers.  Players do not turn down 1st round money every year.  If they do they are high school players willing to bet on themselves.  You had birdsell willing to bet on himself last year but he was 10th round draft pick and improved to 5.  When was the last player to turn down a contract in the top 2 rounds due to money? And how many times has in occurred in the last 10 years?