Twins Acquire Orioles Closer Jorge Lopez

If I'm an Orioles fan...I'm disappointed. But then again if I'm an Orioles fan I've been disappointed for many years now. 

7 minutes ago, bighat said:

If I recall, Sam Dyson was very good the year the Twins acquired him, but had been pretty average before that. Let's hope this isn't a repeat.

Considering what was out there, and what they gave up, I like this move for the Twins.

Not similar. Dyson’s best season was as a closer in 2016 and his 2018 season was in line with 2019. He was always a reliever. 

Happy about this trade. Add in a trade for either Mahle or Pablo Lopez and I'm a very happy Twins fan. Would even be ok with Syndegaard, Rondon or Smyly off the rental market. Would also love to see them find a way to get Josh Bell from the Nats or Ian Happ from the Cubs. With it looking more and more likely that Kirilloff is out for the year, Larnach a maybe to come back and help, Sano done, and Garlick not hitting, we need 2 middle of the order bats. Amazingly, Miranda looks like he's one of them. Let's go get another bat.  

Nice move. Now lets get at least one of Fulmer, Edwards Jr, Bass or Givens to shore up the BP. Maybe give up our next born for a good starter and everything else is bonus

Great move! The only real valuable piece the Twins sent is Povich. Cano is already 28 and could be a good option in the next 2-3 years. The other 2 pitchers are lottery tickets. Seems like the Twins got great value in Lopez for 2 seasons.

I like this trade. Twins get immediate help this year, and potential help the next 2 years. 

17 minutes ago, bighat said:

If I recall, Sam Dyson was very good the year the Twins acquired him, but had been pretty average before that. Let's hope this isn't a repeat.

Considering what was out there, and what they gave up, I like this move for the Twins.

Dyson was always a reliever, and if I recall the Twins were upset with San Francisco because they thought they may have hid an injury from them before the trade as well.  This is different, a reliever on the upswing, whereas Dyson was known commodity who had likely reached his peak.

1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I like this trade. Twins get immediate help this year, and potential help the next 2 years. 

I agree, assuming that Lopez doesn't follow almost all other Twins pitchers to the IL for most of his time here.

47 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Hate losing Povich, but you have to give to get.  Lopez still has two more years of team control, so this is the type of move the club should be making.

I agree that this is the type of move that the Twins should be making. But Lopez has three good months (April-June) in his resume --- He has not been good in July. This makes me nervous.

4 minutes ago, Sean.h said:

I agree that this is the type of move that the Twins should be making. But Lopez has three good months (April-June) in his resume --- He has not been good in July. This makes me nervous.

6 Runs in July. 5 of them in three games in early July 1-4 (4 of them were Twins runs).  Since July 4, 1 Earned Run.  Not very concerned here.

This is the type of move I wanted the Twins to make.  The big question is whether Lopez can continue his success. It’s a risk worth taking 

22 minutes ago, IowaBeancounter said:

I was expecting more experienced players to traded to avoid losing them in the rule 5 draft. 

The day is still young.  Maybe they're saving those players for a Lopez or Mahle trade.  

28 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Great way to start the day! Now please get another bullpen arm and maybe a backup catcher? Another starter would be nice also, but I don't see that happening.

I don't completely understand the backup catcher desire. Is the purpose to trade for a catcher you can DFA when Jeffers comes back? Do you DFA Sanchez? I can't imagine them doing either of those things, unless it's trading away a fungible reliever on the 40 man to with 4-6 years of control for some teams backup. I'm good with that.

And if your response is to send down Jeffers, that's a hard "No." He is a really good defensive catcher who can hit. On this site, around June 25th, in a discussion about Jeffers, I said to look at his statcast numbers. They screamed "breakout incoming." It was obvious. Sure enough, within a couple weeks he was one of the Twins's hottest hitters. He's the best hitting catcher and the best defensive catcher on the team.

I just don't know why you would spend resources to get a catcher better than Gary Sanchez so you can DFA Sanchez when Jeffers returns. 

Carry 3 catchers come September? Only if the acquired catcher is a 110 OPS+ or can play OF.

2 minutes ago, Loosey said:

6 Runs in July. 5 of them in three games in early July 1-4 (4 of them were Twins runs).  Since July 4, 1 Earned Run.  Not very concerned here.

That is a bit reassuring, thanks. The 916 ops against in July should be concerning though, as should the 1.50 whip (also July).

Overall I like this deal.  He still has years of control and can be flipped later on like we did with Rogers or Brewers did with Hader to get some return back if we need to.  That is why years of control is so important.  We did not give up anyone that will hurt us over the next 2 to 3 years either. 

I like the move and personally would rather strengthen the bullpen. Povich does have upside but he's not a top 10. With Lopez in the 9th, you have Duran in the 7th or 8 and Jax before Duran. Two areas of opportunity for the Twins now will be helping Pagan get right in early relief because he really does have elite stuff. Second opportunity, if we can get Kenta Maeda healthy, he is nasty in the bullpen. He proved it with the Dodgers. I like this trade simply because we can't give up on this season and we didn't move any tier one prospects. Now if Povich wins the Cy Young some day than I was wrong. 

33 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Can we trade Pagan to the Brewers and get back Rogers?

First thing I thought of when I saw the Rogers trade news this morning... although its unlikely they are giving up anything unless they improve the closer situation.  So, unless they are looking specifically for a right-handed closer (which we happen to have at the moment) I dont see that happening.  Just wish we could roll-back time and nix the Rogers trade in the first place.

31 minutes ago, roger said:

Hate to give up Povich, but am learning from this year's disappointment in so many young starters that potential seldom reaches success at Target Field.  Damn, the injuries to top pitchers has been disappointing this summer.

What seems to make it worthwhile is the two years of additional control.  Any reports what his salary is for those two years?  Agree that I would like to see a couple rentals, another reliever and an older starter that has two months left on his arm.

This is the right thinking. I'm sure the team has internal calculations for projected wins on all prospects. Fangraphs has published work like that in the past as well.

From what I recall, the Twins likely traded an average outcome of 3.5 WAR for the total years of control traded. I'd even consider pulling the trigger on a trade like this if the Twins were out of it in 2022, but eyeing contention in 2023. 

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Honestly, I don't get the Jeffers love.

 

I have even more appreciation for him now that I've seen what the pitching staff has done without him in the lineup.  I think he calls a better game and has more of a connection with the staff than many give him credit for.

33 minutes ago, Morneau for Gov said:

If I'm an Orioles fan...I'm disappointed. But then again if I'm an Orioles fan I've been disappointed for many years now. 

Takes balls for a fan of the worst team in baseball from 2011-2016 who also finished dead last in the weakest division in baseball last year to make that statement. The Orioles are 2.5 GB from the Twins right now. Oh, and they were in the American League Championship series in 2014, meaning they won a few playoff games in the last decade.

Sell high. Buy Lo(pez). 

Twins made a strong move adding a power arm to the BP. All the angst about Lopez's July performance is overblown. The individual game results bare this out.

I really like the idea of having Jax, Duran and Lopez at the back end with the possibility of Maeda and Alcala being added down the stretch of the regular season. This is particularly good in a playoff setting.

Another move today? SP? Another RP? An OF?

Lopez is also starting arbitration off a tiny base salary of $1.5M. He should be cheap the next couple seasons.

9 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

First thing I thought of when I saw the Rogers trade news this morning... although its unlikely they are giving up anything unless they improve the closer situation.  So, unless they are looking specifically for a right-handed closer (which we happen to have at the moment) I dont see that happening.  Just wish we could roll-back time and nix the Rogers trade in the first place.

Rogers has been awful this year though. Paddack has more WAR this year than Rogers does. 

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Honestly, I don't get the Jeffers love.

 

I don't love Jeffers, but if I had to choose between Jeffers and Sanchez on the roster for September and October, I respond "Jeffers!!!" before the question is finished being asked.

I'm not opposed to moving Jeffers to a backup role. That's perfectly fine. But do you really want to give up the resources necessary to get Wilson Contreras or Sean Murphy just to DFA Sanchez in September, resources we probably need to acquire Tyler Mahle? It's a cost-benefit thing for me.

Would you do that?

Lopez owns a .229 BABIP this year, but the launch angle against him is absurd at -0.7*. Makes sense as Lopez has generated a crazy high 60% ground ball rate. Walk rate is a bit high, but the K rate is elite. It's interesting because Lopez doesn't generate a huge number of swinging strikes. It makes sense as he's a sinkerball pitcher.

It looks like Lopez has entirely given up on his 4 seamer this year. It'll be interesting to see if his stuff continues to play at the elite level of whether or not MLB hitters will adapt, but for right now, he looks like the real deal.