Twins 6, White Sox 3: Buxton's 22nd Homer, Arraez 3-hit Night Fuels Extra-Inning Win

Aggies7 · July 5, 2022

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You are saying Bundy third time through the order is better than a 2nd inning out of Jax.

I'll take the 2nd inning out Jax every time knowing that it won't work out every time.

He hadn’t been asked to go 2 innings since way back in the Yankees series.. and overall his numbers when asked to go 2 are not great, so I don’t see it as a slam dunk decision.

Dman · July 5, 2022

Great work by Bundy last night. I have been hard on him but he has been solid more often than not recently. He certainly is fearless in the zone and Sox were swinging so he had the low pitch count. I had this matchup penciled in as a loss so if Bundy had only given up 1 run through 5 I'm not taking any chances and I would have gone to the pen too. Especially in a tight must win game.

Buxton sure does seem to come up big at times and is not afraid of big moments but it seems like he has been a bit too aggressive at the plate recently. A walk is still better than an out if they are not going to throw you something good to hit.

Kirilloff is starting to become a very important bat for this team. He and Mirnada could lift this team up offensively which we could use.

In the end it feels like we kind of got lucky to win this one but a win is a win. It felt like the same old script was there waiting for us to lose in the 9th but this time the script flipped and we found a way to win instead. Gonna be tough going against Kopek today so nice to get the win last night.

Jeff D. · July 5, 2022

Arraez just hits. Buxton great catch. Twins aren't the only bad baserunners. Twins starter doing great gets pulled early again. No boots. A few guys did well drawing walks. Surprise of evening was Jeffers actually throwing someone out. Finally a few runs in the 10th resulting in a win. GO TWINS!

wabene · July 5, 2022

13 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

He hadn’t been asked to go 2 innings since way back in the Yankees series.. and overall his numbers when asked to go 2 are not great, so I don’t see it as a slam dunk decision.

Bundy's OPS against 3rd time through the order is 875. Arraez is at 876, Buxton 875 and Correa 824. Our best hitters right now. That's is pretty hefty. Griffin Jax has a 572 OPS for his first 25 pitches. It took him about 10 pitches for the 7th and 26 for both innings combined. Nice odds there. Plus we won!

prouster · July 5, 2022

26 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

He hadn’t been asked to go 2 innings since way back in the Yankees series.. and overall his numbers when asked to go 2 are not great, so I don’t see it as a slam dunk decision.

So now Rocco is using the good relievers too much? I don’t think anyone needs a buildup period to go from throwing one inning to throwing two. Seems like you’d want Jax to pitch longer when he can.

Karbo · July 5, 2022

8 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Great win. They all are. Happy to see Duffey maybe discovering some things. Allow me to vent for a moment. Last week, Rocco was forced to send out...and leave out...Tyler Thornburg because he was literally out of options. Tonight, Bundy faces 16 batters...and throws just 58 pitches...and he's gone. I'm old school, I get it. But at some point can there be a little bit of "gut feel" out of the manager? Rather than just reading computer printouts? Please? That's all. Go Twins!!

I can't figure that one out either. Knowing He is going to give Archer a quick hook the next night Rocco piles on an extra inning or so that may have been avoided. This is a paper thin pen as it is, and Rocco just keeps pushing it. I wonder what this pen would look like if they had a manager that knew how to properly manage it?

Aggies7 · July 5, 2022

7 minutes ago, prouster said:

So now Rocco is using the good relievers too much? I don’t think anyone needs a buildup period to go from throwing one inning to throwing two. Seems like you’d want Jax to pitch longer when he can.

No, I didn’t have any issue with asking 2 innings from him. My point was that if 2 innings is the plan, you’d have to acknowledge that his numbers are not great when asked to get 2 innings. Just like bundy’s numbers aren’t great the third time through the order but bundy HAD to come out of the game despite how well he was pitching because his numbers aren’t good in that situation.

and, as mentioned above, archer is going tonight. And lord knows he can’t pitch past the fifth inning (if he even gets you 5), so you’re about to toast the bullpen in 2 games. The bullpen had to get 15 outs last night, assume they’ll need to get 3-5 innings tonight. That’s a hefty amount

Karbo · July 5, 2022

7 minutes ago, wabene said:

Bundy's OPS against 3rd time through the order is 875. Arraez is at 876, Buxton 875 and Correa 824. Our best hitters right now. That's is pretty hefty. Griffin Jax has a 572 OPS for his first 25 pitches. It took him about 10 pitches for the 7th and 26 for both innings combined. Nice odds there. Plus we won!

Where did you get a copy of Rocco's printouts?

wabene · July 5, 2022

1 minute ago, Karbo said:

Where did you get a copy of Rocco's printouts?

The same place you typed your comment, a computer. If you want to be an old time baseball purist, wouldn't you get your baseball news from the print edition of the Strib on your doorstep?

For me the eye test is where I start. The only reason I look up stats to back up my opinions is because we are on a geeky baseball board and I'm just trying to keep up with the Joneses. I didn't know about Baseball Reference until I came here. I'll give Bundy credit. He is a bulldog. I had written him off earlier. However when the top of that lineup is coming up for the 3rd time you had better have a guy warming in the pen if you're going to run him out there again. That might not have been good enough in a one run game.

prouster · July 5, 2022

8 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

No, I didn’t have any issue with asking 2 innings from him. My point was that if 2 innings is the plan, you’d have to acknowledge that his numbers are not great when asked to get 2 innings. Just like bundy’s numbers aren’t great the third time through the order but bundy HAD to come out of the game despite how well he was pitching because his numbers aren’t good in that situation.

and, as mentioned above, archer is going tonight. And lord knows he can’t pitch past the fifth inning (if he even gets you 5), so you’re about to toast the bullpen in 2 games. The bullpen had to get 15 outs last night, assume they’ll need to get 3-5 innings tonight. That’s a hefty amount

I see. That makes sense. I wonder if they’re pushing the high leverage guys a little more since the break is coming up soon.

Eephus · July 5, 2022

28 minutes ago, Dman said:

Buxton sure does seem to come up big at times and is not afraid of big moments but it seems like he has been a bit too aggressive at the plate recently. A walk is still better than an out if they are not going to throw you something good to hit.

20 of Buxton's 52 hits this season are home runs. 11 of his 24 hits since June 1 are home runs. I've got mixed feelings about this, but hard to argue with his penchant for clutch homers. Last year with a 1.005 OPS, he hit 19 homers among his 72 hits. Maybe he won't get hurt as often if half the time he gets a hit he is jogging around the bases.

Squirrel · July 5, 2022

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Funny thing on the triple play. I’ve had some text conversations with friends and the tone has been, “It’s slightly defensible because of how unusual the catch was.”

But for those of us who see Buxton regularly, the sense is, “Great play, but not at all unusual for Buxton, and nowhere near one of his best catches.”

I guess it just goes to show how spoiled we are by having the best centerfielder on the planet. We see the fly ball and say there’s no way that Engel shouldn’t have been standing on second base.

(Priceless was the stunned look on LaRussa’s face after the play.)

Actually, no, it wasn’t defensible, in my (and Ozzie Guillen’s) opinion. You wait to tag. If he doesn’t get to it, it’s likely you score anyway. And if he does get to it, you end up on 3rd with only 1 out.

chinmusic · July 5, 2022

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

(Priceless was the stunned look on LaRussa’s face after the play.)

Sure was!

Thinking of his heyday with the A's and Cards; it's kind of sad (but just a little)?

Karbo · July 5, 2022

8 minutes ago, wabene said:

The same place you typed your comment, a computer. If you want to be an old time baseball purist, wouldn't you get your baseball news from the print edition of the Strib on your doorstep?

For me the eye test is where I start. The only reason I look up stats to back up my opinions is because we are on a geeky baseball board and I'm just trying to keep up with the Joneses. I didn't know about Baseball Reference until I came here. I'll give Bundy credit. He is a bulldog. I had written him off earlier. However when the top of that lineup is coming up for the 3rd time you had better have a guy warming in the pen if you're going to run him out there again. That might not have been good enough in a one run game.

So tomorrow you know you will need at least 4 innings out of your pen. You don't think when Bundy is pitching as well as he was it might be a good idea to at least try to get another inning or two out of him rather than burning the availability of your reliable relievers on a maybe tonight?

AceWrigley · July 5, 2022

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

(Priceless was the stunned look on LaRussa’s face after the play.)

Totally enjoyable. The Pale Hose have a good team but can really muck up defensively and on the base paths.

AceWrigley · July 5, 2022

Bundy can be really effective when he's changing speeds and stays out of the middle of the strike zone. That changeup last night was nasty.

Squirrel · July 5, 2022

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

Yes, yes we do. It took a play that has literally never happened in the entire history of baseball to bail out Rocco’s decision, or we probably don’t even get to the 10th

Listening to the Sox post-game show, Ozzie Guillen said that that play was not why the Sox lost. Yeah, it was a blunder, but odd stuff happens in baseball all the time. He said the reason they lost is because the heart of the order didn’t come through in the bottom of the 9th.

I get you don’t like how Rocco manages, I’m not always a fan either, but mostly I don’t care because managers, eh. But if we are going to play the if game here, then let’s say they don’t blunder and the Sox have runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, you don’t know how that would have turned out. Could have scored, but maybe not. You are making a big assumption they do in order to justify your dislike of Rocco. I mean, this is the White Sox we are talking about, not the Yankees. There is absolutely no guarantee the Sox score there. Its more likely another team does, but not the White Sox. Or if they do, maybe the Twins come through in the 8th and/or 9th. The Twins won, so it meant they were supposed to win, so they would have even without the Sox blunder.

wabene · July 5, 2022

24 minutes ago, Karbo said:

So tomorrow you know you will need at least 4 innings out of your pen. You don't think when Bundy is pitching as well as he was it might be a good idea to at least try to get another inning or two out of him rather than burning the availability of your reliable relievers on a maybe tonight?

That is a good question and one I ponder as well. I believe if they are going to protect the starters to such an extent, then they need more multi inning appearances from the pen. Of course then that complicates pen usage. I was a little surprised they pulled Bundy, but it's Bundy. If it had been Gray, Ryan or Winder they would've run with it. You gotta have the horses.

USAFChief · July 5, 2022

32 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Actually, no, it wasn’t defensible, in my (and Ozzie Guillen’s) opinion. You wait to tag. If he doesn’t get to it, it’s likely you score anyway. And if he does get to it, you end up on 3rd with only 1 out.

Concur.

100 percent a tag play for the lead runner. 100 percent.

USAFChief · July 5, 2022

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Why does it seem like every time Rocco makes a decision people don't like they use the "computer printouts" line or something similar?

This felt like a gut level decision to me.

Regardless if you support or question removing Bundy--and for the record I support it--IMO it was most certainly NOT a "gut level decision."

I believe this was a decision made--using data and a plan to compensate for weak starting pitching--prior to the game starting. The definition of managing by spreadsheet. I don't think that's even controversial.

Hell I'd argue it was a decision made before THE SEASON started.

USAFChief · July 5, 2022

2 hours ago, adjacent said:

Talking about that, what was Tony Larussa doing making himself ejected when his pitchers were getting 3 extra inches on both sides of the plate. Was it a kind of "Hey, I am still relevant here?"

I found this exact quote on "White Sox Interactive" only they seemed to think it was Twins pitchers getting all the calls.

chpettit19 · July 5, 2022

59 minutes ago, Karbo said:

So tomorrow you know you will need at least 4 innings out of your pen. You don't think when Bundy is pitching as well as he was it might be a good idea to at least try to get another inning or two out of him rather than burning the availability of your reliable relievers on a maybe tonight?

Because he's trying to put the team in the best position possible to win the game. If it weren't such a close game Bundy would've been allowed to go. But in a close game you play the odds and the odds very clearly say taking Bundy out gives you the better chance to win. Which they did.

Winder is in Chicago on the taxi squad and could be activated today to eat multiple innings out of the pen. They knew that before yesterday's game since he was with them then. Is it possible that they had a plan of "if it's close take Bundy out and use the pen since that's our best odds and we'll activate an extra starter for Tuesday if we need to, but if it's a blowout let Bundy go as long as possible and save the pen arms for Tuesday?" I'm not saying Winder is going to be activated, but it's a possibility.

Oh, and they have an off day Thursday. Then a 3 game series before another off day. They have plenty of time to rest arms.

Squirrel · July 5, 2022

23 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I found this exact quote on "White Sox Interactive" only they seemed to think it was Twins pitchers getting all the calls.

Yeah, and they also thought Buxton's catch was routine and their elite CF let two drop for doubles that should have been caught. And, they blamed the base running gaffe all on Moncado because he had a better visual of what was happening and Engel didn't. Um, okay. Fandom at its best.

USAFChief · July 5, 2022

7 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah, and they also thought Buxton's catch was routine and their elite CF let two drop for doubles that should have been caught. And, they blamed the base running gaffe all on Moncado because he had a better visual of what was happening and Engel didn't. Um, okay. Fandom at its best.

Rocco gets off easy compared to their takes on LaRussa though.

jorgenswest · July 5, 2022

The third time through the order narrative is somewhat a myth that is founded in the skewed data the third time in a row. The main reason pitchers have poorer numbers the third time through the order is that the data is heavily skewed towards the top of the order and the best hitters. Bundy has faced a batter a third time 48 times. The top 3 in the order account for 25 of the 48. The bottom 3 account for 6. With that skew it should follow that almost any pitcher is going to have much worse numbers the third time through.

Looking at the data from an individual hitters perspective gives a different perception. I did this a while back and slightly more hitters (around 37%) did better in their third appearance against a pitcher. That isn’t very convincing that the third time through is meaningful.

For example here are the top three in the White Sox order last night and OPS by times facing a pitcher.

Anderson 945, 854, 658

Vaughn 515, 1133, 846

Robert 413, 835, 862

One batter does best the first time, another the second and the last the third. I don’t think that is meaningful for the individual either but it points out what I saw at the individual batter level data.

It seems like the third time through is an established narrative from those that broadcast and write about the game. I believe the skew in the data is misunderstood by many and while there is a slight drop it is not nearly as significant as many assume.

I added this to the forum if interested in discussing third time through outside the game recap.

chpettit19 · July 5, 2022

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The third time through the order narrative is somewhat a myth that is founded in the skewed data the third time in a row. The main reason pitchers have poorer numbers the third time through the order is that the data is heavily skewed towards the top of the order and the best hitters. Bundy has faced a batter a third time 48 times. The top 3 in the order account for 25 of the 48. The bottom 3 account for 6. With that skew it should follow that almost any pitcher is going to have much worse numbers the third time through.

Looking at the data from an individual hitters perspective gives a different perception. I did this a while back and slightly more hitters (around 37%) did better in their third appearance against a pitcher. That isn’t very convincing that the third time through is meaningful.

For example here are the top three in the White Sox order last night and OPS by times facing a pitcher.

Anderson 945, 854, 658

Vaughn 515, 1133, 846

Robert 413, 835, 862

One batter does best the first time, another the second and the last the third. I don’t think that is meaningful for the individual either but it points out what I saw at the individual batter level data.

It seems like the third time through is an established narrative from those that broadcast and write about the game. I believe the skew in the data is misunderstood by many and while there is a slight drop it is not nearly as significant as many assume.

I added this to the forum if interested in discussing third time through outside the game recap.

For this specific situation, Bundy has an OPS against of .957 against the top 2 guys in an order, .744 against 3-6 hitters, and .601 for 7-9 hitters. Bundy has an .865 OPS agsint 3rd time through the order, which is often him facing the top of the order as you point out, but he's worst against the top of the order. Jax, who replaced him to face the top of the order, has a .392 against the top 2 guys (small sample size), .688 3-6 hitters, and .655 7-9. And an OPS against of .588 the first time he faces a guy in a game. .572 OPS against in his first 25 pitches thrown.

I think the 3rd time through the order narrative is also misrepresented as being the hard rule for every pitcher. It's the general rule for Bundy, but not Ryan. Ryan has faced someone a third time in all 12 of his starts this year. Bundy has done it in 9 of 14 starts. Archer 4 of 15 starts. Gray 8 of 11. Ober 5 of 7. Smeltzer 9 of 10. Now there are many reasons why a guy would face guys a 3rd time or not. Sometimes a blowup game is a reason they don't, but sometimes it's a reason they do (just eating the L that day and trying to save the pen). Sometimes the lineup gives you such a big lead it leads to the starter being able to throw more (Bundy faced guys a 4th time in 1 start). I think the 3rd time through the order rule is more about when they start making decisions. It's more about "ok, we're getting to the top of the order a 3rd time, who do we have available, what's the score, what inning are we in, how's the starters peripherals, when's our next off day" and so on. Yesterday was a close game with a fully rested back of the pen and an off day in 3 days. Numbers show Jax had a better chance of getting through the next inning with a 0 so they went to him. The math changes everyday. It's not a hard and fast rule. It's a general guideline they look at as 1 part of an extremely complicated situation with a ton of variables.

mikelink45 · July 5, 2022

I am in Alaska and get spotty coverage of both TD and the team. I really appreciate these summaries. This game fits with the batters you trust essay.

ashbury · July 5, 2022

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Probably mad he got ejected for wearing a Dodger uniform as a White Sock.

I was speed-reading and misread the cap.

2wins87 · July 5, 2022

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You are saying Bundy third time through the order is better than a 2nd inning out of Jax.

I'll take the 2nd inning out Jax every time knowing that it won't work out every time.

It's not about the decision it's about the decision maker.

Rhubarb, peas and carrots, ROCCO!!, rhubarb, rhubarb, SPREADSHEETS!!, peas and carrots...

AceWrigley · July 5, 2022

8 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Rhubarb, peas and carrots, ROCCO!!, rhubarb, rhubarb, SPREADSHEETS!!, peas and carrots...

Ice cream and cake and cake.

Duffey	28	0	0	0	13	41
Cotton	0	0	38	0	0	38
Moran	20	0	0	18	0	38
Pagán	0	0	10	0	18	28
Jax	0	0	0	0	26	26
Duran	0	0	0	0	20	20
Thielbar	0	12	0	0	0	12
Megill	0	0	0	0	0	0

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Twins 6, White Sox 3: Buxton's 22nd Homer, Arraez 3-hit Night Fuels Extra-Inning Win

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