Twins 2021 Position Analysis: Shortstop

Projected Starter: Andrelton Simmons

Likely Backup: Jorge Polanco

Depth: Luis Arráez, Nick Gordon

Prospects: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier

THE GOOD

Simmons isn't just a good defender, or a great defender, or even an elite defender. He is a generational icon, whose name already sits beside Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel in the annals of all-time gloves at shortstop.

At Baseball.FYI last summer, Jacob Kornhauser suggested that Simmons may go down as MLB's best defensive player ever, period. His article points out that Simmons has accumulated 26.7 dWAR through nine seasons in the majors, already good for 14th in history and putting him on track to eventually surpass the all-time leader Smith, who took 19 years to reach 44.2 dWAR.

"He makes the hard plays look routine and makes the routine plays look downright boring," Kornhauser wrote of Simmons.

That's an apt description for the four-time Gold Glover in action. With his supernatural instincts and unparalleled arm strength, he's a marvel to behold at the infield's most challenging position. You'll see what I'm talking about in the highlight reel below. (Jump to the ~6:30 mark, and Simmons' play against Travis d'Arnaud of the Mets, for a prime example of a play that would simply never happen with Jorge Polanco – or virtually any other player – at short.)

By nudging Polanco to second base and joining forces with a hopefully-healthy Josh Donaldson on the left side, Simmons represents a clear and decisive upgrade for Minnesota's defensive unit, potentially helping turn it into one of the league's most effective.

Simmons' offense certainly pales in comparison to his defense, but he's far from a major liability at the plate. In six of his nine MLB seasons, his OPS+ has fallen between 90 and 110, which is basically within a standard deviation of average. He's a high-contact guy who puts the ball on the ground a lot, and will probably bat at the bottom of the Twins order.

If Simmons simply hits to his .269/.317/.379 (.696) career line, he'll be a fairly typical producer compared to league-wide norms in the No. 8 and 9 lineup spots. The Twins can live with that given their offensive strength at every other position.

Even with the consistently ordinary bat, Simmons has earned MVP votes on three separate occasions, including 2017 when he finished eighth and 2018 when he finished 15th. The defense is simply that good, and that impactful. If he's back on top of his game in 2021, Simmons will be a transformative figure for the Twins.

THE BAD

The 2020 season is one Simmons would like to forget. He hurt his left ankle for a second consecutive year, produced little punch at the plate (zero home runs and seven doubles in 127 PA), and opted out with a handful of games remaining, later revealing his struggles with mental health.

There's no reason to think he can't put all that behind him and move forward with a fresh slate. But what's difficult to shake when evaluating the 31-year-old's latest campaign is the conspicuous drop-off in defensive metrics.

Advanced fielding stats are inexact, prone to variation and noise. But up until last year, Simmons has consistently rated very, very well in these metrics, pretty much across the board.

As you can see below, his Outs Above Average according to Statcast sat between 15 and 19 in the prior four years (with the highest total coming in 2019, when he was limited to 103 games). Last year, OAA had him at NEGATIVE-one in 30 games.

Here's how Simmons has compared to his peers by OAA over the past four years:

• 2017: 99th percentile
  
• 2018: 98th percentile
  
• 2019: 99th percentile
  
• 2020: 24th percentile
  

That's an astonishing drop-off that is impossible to ignore, samples aside. Switching views to another metric, here's how Simmons has rated according to UZR/150 since he arrived in the majors in 2012 (keep in mind this is a rate stat, not a counting stat, so it should theoretically not be as effected by the shortened season):

• 2012: 26.1
  
• 2013: 14.4
  
• 2014: 16.0
  
• 2015: 17.8
  
• 2016: 18.1
  
• 2017: 18.5
  
• 2018: 19.5
  
• 2019: 13.8
  
• 2020: 4.0
  

Again, what is so striking here is how incredibly consistent Simmons' top-tier defensive production was year after year, up until it plummeted.

Clearly Simmons had a lot going on last year, physically and mentally. If he can turn the page and return to form, he's a slam-dunk addition with the deal Minnesota landed him on (one year, $10.5 million).

But the fact they were able to get him on such favorable terms, while both other members of free agency's leading shortstop trio (Didi Gregorius and Marcus Semien) both got much more guaranteed money from other teams, leads to the inescapable conclusion there's a widespread skepticism about that scenario playing out.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The Simmons signing is the most interesting we've seen from this Twins front office, in terms of strategic vision and implications. If it works out as hoped, he'll have a dramatic impact on this team and its fundamental strengths.

With so much offseason talk about pitching, and consternation over the failure to add big-name arms, not enough attention is paid to moves like this. Run prevention is the name of the game, and planting elite defenders at crucial positions in the field supports that directive. At the height of his powers, Simmons will make Twins pitchers, as well as the fielders around him, better.

But that's dependent on his defense rebounding in a big way after taking an unprecedented downturn in 2020. As Kornhauer noted in his piece at Baseball.FYI: "In his nine seasons, Simmons has posted an overall WAR of 36.3, 26.7 of which is from his defense. In other words, he likely wouldn't be in the league anymore if it weren't for his defensive prowess."

The return of that prowess, and to what extent, will define his value to the Twins in 2021. If he can't answer the call or stay healthy, Minnesota has a fine backup in Polanco, but their secondary depth is very iffy and Polanco is already a starter elsewhere. For this reason, I'll be curious to see if the Twins carry another SS-capable player like J.T. Riddle or Andrew Romine at the end of their bench.

For now, we eagerly await Simmons' spring debut following a late arrival in camp. It sounds like that may come Friday.

READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES

• Catcher
  
• First Base
  
• Second Base
  
• Third Base