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  • Twins 2, Athletics 1: Game of Firsts Ends in Twins Win


    Sherry Cerny

    The Twins left Baltimore with a split, Covid-19 and Carlos Correa with potentially a broken finger after being hit in the hand by a pitch (TWICE) in Thursday’s game. Even with the daunting news, the news of Royce Lewis coming up to the Twins to replace him gave fans something to look forward to. With the chips falling as they may, the new series this weekend started out hot!

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

     

    Box Score
    SP: Josh Winder: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (80 pitches, 55 strikes (68.75%))
    Home Runs:  Jose Miranda (1), Byron Buxton (9)
    Top 3 WAR: Josh Winder (.231), Emilio Pagan (.156), Byron Buxton (.128)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    image.png

    Woe is We…Ailments
    Carlos Correa has been getting into the swing of things (pun fully intended) the past two weeks and it’s been fun to watch. He got off to a slow start but had a seven-game hitting streak by Thursday.  The slugger is hitting .255 with a .320 OBP, with five doubles, two homers, 11 RBI and 12 runs so far this season. When he was hit on the hand during the final game of the Orioles series, everyone was worried that he may be out for a considerable amount of time. 

    While waiting on the results of a CT scan, tons of speculation circled the injury debating whether it was broken, dislocated, or a bruise. Hoping for the best, and as a Twins fan, always expecting the worst. 

    Not only was Correa being scratched from play at this time, but the team is also working through a small stint of COVID-19 in the club house, taking out Luis Arraez, Rocco Baldelli, and Dylan Bundy

    Luckily, the CT scan showed no fractured bones for Correa. With the news that it is "just a bruise" and he wouldn't be put on the Injured List, he attempted to ask into the lineup. Jayce Tingler said No.   

    With all the bad news hitting the Twins this week, the ailments and injuries have allowed for some major roster moves that gave Twins fans a morale boost. Royce Lewis, who missed the past two seasons, 2020 with the pandemic and 2021 due to his torn ACL, joined the Twins and made his MLB debut. 

    Another Day Another Debut

    Royce Lewis (and Twins fans) have been waiting for this day since he was drafted by the Twins with the first overall pick in the2017 draft. There were a few bumps on the road to the Show, but he has arrived, and Lewis joined his teammates on the field donning #23, once worn by fan-favorite Nelson Cruz before he was traded to Tampa Bay. Some have a “too soon” feeling,  all in fun of course, but maybe it’s a good omen for the young player and Cruz’s talent will rub off on him. 

    Lewis has been tearing it up in St. Paul this season, showing that he is more than ready and capable for this call-up. His at-bats are some of the most impressive thus far with 21 hits (including 11 doubles) helping catapult his team to an above .500 April.

    While he didn't take Correa's roster spot, he did take Luis Arraez's spot, with Arraez officially going on the Covid-IL. It’s a good problem to have when you can be sad for one player potentially being hurt, but now the team has aces up their sleeve who can come in and take their place. Luckily for the fans, Correa is okay, and Lewis still got to make his debut and gain some experience. 

    Lewis had a successful night at third base in support of Friday night's starter Josh Winder. In the first inning, on his fourth pitch, Winder threw a fastball to Sheldon Neuse which came off the tip of the bat, a hopper right to shortstop, giving Lewis his first major league put-out, throwing to Jose Miranda to get out Neuse at first base.

    Lewis started out his hitting career with the Twins with a ground out to third base, but Lewis left first base with a huge smile on his face and the glow didn’t disappear all night. Lewis made contact every time he was at bat tonight, finally getting the first hit of his Major League career in the bottom of the eighth.

    While Lewis did not get a chance to score, all-in-all it was a fantastic night for the Twins top prospect and fans are ready for more!

    Warm nights, Hot performances
    In the second inning, Jose Miranda connected for his first major-league home run. Miranda drilled a Zach Logue’s fastball, hitting the ball into second deck in left field. The velocity on the home run was 105.5 MPH. 

    Trevor Larnach has not let up on offense. He collected another double tonight, his ninth of the season. Larnach has been beyond impressive at the plate and with his defense. In the second inning, Elvis Andrus hit a one-hopper to Larnach in left, who fielded the ball and threw it home to Gary Sanchez to get out the runner easily. 

    Byron Buxton was in the game as the Designated Hitter on Friday, and while fans would rather see him in center field, it doesn’t matter where he is, he makes an impact. Buxton hit his ninth home run, putting him in fourth place in the American League this season. 

    The Starters and the Bullpen are on Fire
    Josh Winder had his second start of the season. This was his first start at Target Field. On this night, the mound was his, and he started out hot again, with a ground out and two strikeouts in the first inning. 

    Winder followed that up by striking out Jed Lowrie and Sean Murphy for a 1-2-3 inning. His pitching didn’t let up. By the top of the fifth inning, the rookie had four straight strikeouts and four 1-2-3 innings before Elvis Andrus hit a ground ball to Lewis who made a great stop and threw to Miranda for the out. 

    Winder carried the Twins through six innings, only allowing an unearned run and that came at the end of his night in the sixth inning. Wes Johnson came out to give his rookie some advice, and Winder was able to regain composure and finish out the inning. His night ended when Gary Sanchez threw out Sheldon Neuse on a steal attempt. 

    The bullpen started out great with Joe Smith and Tyler Duffey who got the team through innings seventh and eighth innings. Fans held their breath as Emilio Pagan took the mound and loaded the bases in the top of the ninth. With bases full and Chad Pinder's count full, Pagan got a swinging strike to end the game. 

    What was your favorite moment of the game? 

    What’s Next? 

    The Twins finish out their series this weekend with Oakland before Houston comes to town on Tuesday and meets up with Correa for the first time in a different uniform. Remaining pitching matchups for this series include: 

    • Saturday 1:10 pm: Sonny Gray (coming off IL) vs RHP James Kaprielian (0-1, 18.00 ERA)
    • Sunday 1:10 pm: Chris Paddock (1-2, 3.15 ERA) vs RHP Dalton Jefferies (1-4, 4.81 ERA) 

    Postgame Interview 

     

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      MON TUE WED THU FRI TOT
                 
    Pagán 27 0 0 0 28 55
    Thielbar 0 18 0 18 0 36
    Jax 15 0 0 15 0 30
    Duffey 0 18 0 0 11 29
    Coulombe 0 0 26 0 0 26
    Stashak 0 11 0 0 0 11
    Duran 10 0 0 0 0 10
    Smith 2 0 0 0 6 8
    Sands 0 0 0 0 0 0

     

     

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    1 hour ago, 9moons27 said:

    The Twinks are 16-11 and in first place, but watching them play this year, with a few exceptions, is like watching paint dry. Urshella, Sanchez, Jeffers, Sano, Polanco, Celestio, Pagan, Paddock, Gordon, Archer, etc. B-O-O-O-R-I-N-G!!

    Interesting. I’ve had the exact opposite experience watching this team. I think they’re at least as fun to watch as the Bomba Squad, and probably the most fun since the Piranha teams back in the early years of Gardy’s tenure. These guys go out and play their asses off every night. I love it. 

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    This is old-fashioned baseball two to one. Great pitching with the exception of Pagan who will continue to get saved chances because the front office acquired him and they like to have success from their new acquisitions. I know it said we don't have a true closer, but Pagan has three saves. They do use him in the 9th when they have him available. I love the young guys and with a bring to the team I'm not even sure where Kiriloff plays in this lineup. Which is a nice problem. It is my hope that Louis shine so well that he doesn't get sent back down. And winder has no earned the right to continue to start. Great game which gives me wonderful enthusiasm for this team

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    Great debut for Lewis, great to see HRs from both Bux and Miranda and hat's off to Winder for a well-pitched game. What more can be said about those four guys? Amazing!

    Unfortunately this team isn't scoring enough. Both runs last night were scored on solo homers, which means that the Twins had 6 additional hits + 4 walks where they couldn't push anything across home plate. All 10 baserunners were stranded out there, not one hit with a runner on base to bring someone in. The weather is warming up and the bats are too. There aren't going to be many more days where you can win games 2-1. This team needs to figure out how to put up crooked numbers.

    Lost in all the fun was the fact that Pagan nearly blew this game. Loaded the bases with walks and got to a 3-2 count on the last batter before striking him out. We were 1 pitch away from having a very different discussion this morning as we'd be talking about the team's 3rd straight loss. This team needs a closer.

     

     

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    Very nice win.  Last year this game would have wound up in the loss column.  Nice to see the young players doing well.  Lewis should be the starting SS after Correa leaves.  I wouldn't put Pagan in again to close out a close game.  He walks way too many.  Twins were very fortunate they were able to hang on in spite of Pagan.  I still think the starting pitchers need to pitch further into games especially when they are pitching well.  The bullpen is overused and can't be expected to pitch half the game all season long.  At this rate it is bound to break down.

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    44 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    who will continue to get saved chances because the front office acquired him and they like to have success from their new acquisitions.

    Oh come on, Mike. I’ve read a lot of your posts over the years, and you are way better than this. While I question the use of Pagan in these situations, they don’t put any of their players in any of their roles game to game, just to prove how good they are.

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    2 hours ago, 9moons27 said:

    The Twinks are 16-11 and in first place, but watching them play this year, with a few exceptions, is like watching paint dry. Urshella, Sanchez, Jeffers, Sano, Polanco, Celestio, Pagan, Paddock, Gordon, Archer, etc. B-O-O-O-R-I-N-G!!

    It's too bad you feel that way. I've been having a blast seeing so many of the new guys succeed thus far. On top of that we have Buck playing at an MVP level, Kepler looking like his 2019 self, and Jeffers showing some encouraging improvement. Still early in the season and we've already had lots of exciting games and memorable moments.

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    Pagán was acquired on opening day. He hasn’t performed well since 2019. I think there is a chance that the Twins can help him return closer to his 2019 form but they did not have spring training to work with him. In 2019 his strike rate was 70% and this year it is 56%. With San Diego he was low to mid 60s. Is the low strike rate in part the Twins trying to make changes in season? Changes are needed. His San Diego performance wasn’t worthy of a high leverage role on a contending team. I am not sure who gets the his high leverage work but I hope they move him to a lower leverage role until he starts throwing strikes.

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    Winder was fantastic, although he got lucky with some hard contact being hit directly at Larnach.

    Larnach is becoming a real defender in left. That’s a fun surprise. Teams are going to start realizing that and not run on him.

    Celestino is settling in, which is nice to see.

    Miranda looks to be getting the jitters out. His defense is still suspect but he’s regaining his approach at the plate and starting to be more selective.

    Lewis had a fine debut. A couple of nice plays in the field and some good swings.

    Sanchez was the unsung hero of the day. He and Winder had a good thing going, and then in the 9th he made a number of good blocks and stops with Pagán’s wildness.

    I was sad to see Jovani Moran sent down, but he was so good in Baltimore that I’m sure he’ll be back up in no time.

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    Pagan has averaged 2.5 BB per 9 innings over his career of 275 IP.

    This season it's 10.6 0ver a whopping 7 innings.

    He's going through a patch, but we are dealing with an aberration, and a very small sample size.

     

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    Pagan has never walked more than 19 batters over an entire season in his big league career. He has NINE already in 8 2/3. Twins are playing with fire continuing to use him in that role. If we don’t have a true closer, then people should be given auditions. Duran has performed admirably when put into tight games when we’re ahead or tied. He threw ten pitches in his only save opportunity. The twins keep using him weirdly though. Like the other night in Baltimore, down a run in the 8th inning, a couple days after his only save chance. I’d say ride with him until he shows he can’t do it. His stuff is clearly better than Pagan’s. Clearly. 

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    Pagan reminds me of Senior Smoke. The game gets too interesting when he is the closer. I vote we name him Junior Smoke and only let him pitch with a 3 run lead or a deficit.

     

    The starting staff is carrying this team just like we all predicted it would. Baseball is a funny game to predict.

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    1 hour ago, Walser said:

    It's too bad you feel that way. I've been having a blast seeing so many of the new guys succeed thus far. On top of that we have Buck playing at an MVP level, Kepler looking like his 2019 self, and Jeffers showing some encouraging improvement. Still early in the season and we've already had lots of exciting games and memorable moments.

    The season was brutal to witness through the series in Kansas City. Since then, very exciting and entertaining. The forecast is for a hot summer on and off the field, so it should be an awesome few months at Target Field. As a baseball fan, how can you not get fired up watching Correa, Buxton, Arraez, and Polanco? That is a rather impressive start to entertainment, then move along to Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Josh Winder as young guns on the mound. Come on now, this roster is loaded with talent and fun players top to bottom, both experienced such as Kepler and youngsters like Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda. Sign me up, I will be at Target Field as much as possible this season. 

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    11 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

    Currently arguing with someone who thinks Pagan should still be the closer, especially over Duran.

     

    I’m sorry, you can’t walk guys in the 9th inning. 

    I couldn't agree more. How does Pagan have a .156 WAR after loading the bases and barely getting out of the jam. That's why I don't buy all the metrics. Sure he gets the save. But the laws of average say if he keeps trending with high% of walks he's going to get burned

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    45 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

    Duran has performed admirably when put into tight games when we’re ahead or tied. He threw ten pitches in his only save opportunity. The twins keep using him weirdly though. Like the other night in Baltimore, down a run in the 8th inning,

    I don’t know if this changes your argument or not, but Duran came into the game when the score was tied 3-3, then gave up two solo shots. Bringing him into the game in high leverage situations is the place to use Duran, imo, whether or not it’s the 9th. Maybe a tie game isn’t high leverage enough to have used him then, but I think an argument could be made that it was. I’m 50-50 on that one. But I don’t like using Pagan as he was last night, that we, and most of us, agree on. I just don’t think your example of when Duran was used the other night enhances this argument.

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    Around the sixth or seventh inning last night, I began thinking about what I was watching.

    Miranda’s home run in his fourth or fifth game, Lewis playing his first game, Winder’s second start, Larnach’s bat and big arm, Celestino doing very well his second season with the Twins, great prospect AK back with the team with hopefully a pain free wrist, Jeffers the man behind the plate and still young, Ryan and Ober in their second seasons and doing better than expected and Duran throwing 102 out of the pen.  WOW!  This team is so very young AND talented.  The coming five plus years should be a lot of fun!

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    A great effort by our young players, it was wonderful. Very excited for Royce getting his feet wet and getting that illusive 1st hit. But it was Winder that stole the show. This is the way to break in our prospects. Letting them get their feet wet 1st and let them gradually get used to their surrounding, not throwing them in the middle of the lake and say swim and watch them drown.

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    11 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

    I couldn't agree more. How does Pagan have a .156 WAR after loading the bases and barely getting out of the jam. That's why I don't buy all the metrics. Sure he gets the save. But the laws of average say if he keeps trending with high% of walks he's going to get burned

    What closer in Twins history hasn't made Twins nervous?    Key words are "getting out of the jam"    He has a 2.35 ERA and a career 1.05 WHIP which is better than Joe Nathan's so maybe the aberration is the walks.     .    Of course you can't walk 2 guys an inning and be a closer but his career BB/9 is 2.5.   His current SSS BB/9 is 10.6.     Why assume he is going to continue at the current high rate rather than assume he will settle closer to his career norm?   I like guys that battle and he seems to fit the bill.

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    I just want to add. I see a lot of comments in regards to Larnachs strong arm. Early this year and last year the comments were how slow he is and what a lollipop arm he has. He's among the league leaders in doubles, so he can't be that slow and he now has 3 or 4 outfield assists after 23 games he's played, not all of them in the outfield. What happened? Did his arm and legs get instantaneously stronger and faster? 

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    12 hours ago, Monticore said:

    0 for 10 with risp and they somehow still win by the skin of their teeth. Pagan's 28 pitch tightrope over the volcano feat in stark contrast to Joe Smith's 6 pitch 1-2-3 master class.

     

    5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    "Tightrope over the volcano". Great writing. Thanks. It perfectly described the top of the ninth inning in last night's game.

     

    4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    Sherry has a nice writing style. 

    This one was Monticore's comment. 

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    1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

    I just want to add. I see a lot of comments in regards to Larnachs strong arm. Early this year and last year the comments were how slow he is and what a lollipop arm he has. He's among the league leaders in doubles, so he can't be that slow and he now has 3 or 4 outfield assists after 23 games he's played, not all of them in the outfield. What happened? Did his arm and legs get instantaneously stronger and faster? 

    As with many counting stats, outfield assists are hard to interpret because they don't keep separate count of how often the runners or base coaches test that arm. That said, I thought Larnach's form on the throw looked good - free and easy with no overthrowing that might lead to the ball sailing. With two outs it was reasonable, maybe, to send the runner even on a shallow base hit, but if Larnach demonstrates an 80 percent throw-out rate on balls hit like that, it will stop.

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    4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

    Oh come on, Mike. I’ve read a lot of your posts over the years, and you are way better than this. While I question the use of Pagan in these situations, they don’t put any of their players in any of their roles game to game, just to prove how good they are.

    We have to disagree here. Just like last year with happ and shoemaker. And colome and others they see something and want it to come true. It's a natural thing to do but it can also be destructive. I guess my question is you would be how many have pagans relief rolls been in none high profile innings

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    Winder, Ryan, and Ober all look like mainstays in this rotation for years to come, and all already look legit. The fact that Arraez, Correa, and Bundy are all only out short-term is good news. My only concern as of right now is roster spots. Correa and Arraez will both be back within 2 weeks, but the Twins should send Lewis or Miranda back to the Minors, they deserve their stay in the majors. I think the Twins should flip Urshela for either a better 4th outfielder or pitching help. Lewis, Miranda, and Arraez all can play 3rd well, and the position is just going to be crowded

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