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  • Twins 1, Padres 10: Twins West Coast Tour Starts with Another Loss


    Sherry Cerny


    The Twins and the Padres started a three-game series Friday night, just the 21st time the two teams have met over their history. With the Twins line-up poised to battle a left-handed pitcher, Joe Ryan took the mound in search of his eighth win of the season.

    Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez, USA Today

    Box Score
    SP: Joe Ryan 4.2 IP, 8 H, 10 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (81 pitches, 57 strikes (70%))
    Home Runs:  Byron Buxton (25)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (-.350), Gilberto Celestino (-.101), Miguel Sano (-.081)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs

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    More Pitching Woes
    The Twins gave up the lead early in the game when Luke Voit hit a home run to center field after a lead off walk to Jurickson Profar, scoring both players in the bottom of the first. What looked like a fluke early on, spiraled quickly into pitching misery for Joe Ryan. 

    In an uncharacteristic game, Ryan gave up five home runs and had ten earned runs overall. This writer noticed early on that Ryan struggled with command, some of his pitches lacking movement and speed making him extremely hittable for the Padres. Ryan has not given up more than four runs a game this season and was the first Twins since 2003 to give up 10+ runs in a game. 

    Manager Rocco Baldelli finally pulled Ryan after being shelled and going through the order three times by the fifth inning. The fifth inning was the worst for the rookie pitcher. He saw all nine hitters, gave up six runs pushing the lead to ten for the Padres. Needless to say, it was a rough game, one of the hardest we’ve seen for him this season. 

    Jovani Moran came in to relieve Ryan and quickly closed out the inning with four pitches allowing the game to move to the next inning. Moran and Jharel Cotton did a great job keeping their pitch counts low and moving swiftly through the innings.

    In a complete change of pace, the bullpen managed to move quickly through the game and manage any further damage incurred by the starter. 

    The offense was as dismal as the pitching tonight. Unable to produce any runs, The Twins bats stayed quiet until Byron Buxton hit his 25th home run of the season at the top of the fourth inning, finally getting them on the board, trailing only by two with plenty of game left. 

    Blake Snell, who has had a rough season for the Padres, held the Twins to just one run before being relieved by Dinelson Lamet, a RHP who was recalled from Triple-A El Paso for Mackenzie Gore. Lamet handled business for the Padres keeping the Twins off the board.

    Twins fans have been seeing Miguel Sano in the line-up since the Milwaukee series. Sano came in as the Designated Hitter again and completed his first full game today, and while he was doing well in Triple-A Saint Paul, the Twins have been easing him back into the game, he’s yet to get a hit, and Twins fans took to Twitter to express their frustration with Sano on top of the already mounting frustration with the pitching. 

    The game overall was dismal, but the eighth inning was entertaining. While the Padres were pitching, the crowd came to a roar and Dick Bremer and Roy Smalley continued to talk about the game, while security wrestled a streaker.

    To add to the excitement, the Twins brought in Nick Gordon as a relief pitcher. Gordon started the mound appearance with the umpire staff giving him a hard time about his glove. The glove Gordon had evidently looked similar to the color of a baseball masking the pitch. 

    While the staff found Gordon a new glove, the Padres staff loudly blasted “what’s going on” by 4Non Blondes in the background. Gordon went with the flow: smiling during ‘glove gate’, took calls from Sanchez and had a scoreless eighth inning. 

    The Twins were quickly shut down in the ninth inning by Tim Hill, ending the game and the frustration for the evening. 

    After a couple tough losses in Milwaukee, this was not a great way to start a comeback. With the trade deadline looming, the Twins need to make some moves that will benefit the team. Even if the play-offs aren't in the future this season, the pitching core needs help. 

    What’s Next?
    Pitching matchup for the rest of the series:

    • Saturday 6:15 pm CST: Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.52ERA)  vs RHP Joe Musgrove (8-3, 2.63 ERA)
    • Sunday 1:10 pm CST: TBD  vs RHP Sean Manaea (5-5, 4.33 ERA) 

    Postgame Interview

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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    Jose Rodriguez was the Twins Daily short-season minor-league hitter of the year. He is at the Dominican facilities for spring training now but will likely join Extended Spring Training in Fort Myers.

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    Featured Comments

      On 7/30/2022 at 10:58 PM, Mike Sixel said:

    To be clear, Cincy, Detroit, KC, etc are always playing for next year (pittsburgh is another).....so it isn't like that plan is guaranteed to work. 

    And, there is a really good article online right now about trading prospects for elite players, the team getting the elite player often wins the deal.....because lots of prospects don't work out.

    Expand  

    That does make sense. If the deals were always lopsided in favor of the team getting prospects or the team getting the elite player, the deals would change. It just about what the teams are risking for the reward.

    I think it's pretty rare teams acquire an elite player and that player does not help the team at all in the current year. Playoffs don't grow on trees historically in baseball, but the owners seem intent on changing that, but that's a different topic.

    The risk is next year is totally unknown. Who knows what will happen? That's the case for any team. If you're on the track to the playoffs this year, a single World Series win is worth any player in baseball whether the player's name is Mike Trout or Juan Soto. 

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    Ryan was at 82 pitches. he was throwing strikes. Two of the home runs had an expected batting average around .200. All were just out of the reach of the outfielder.

    If he had pitched exactly the same but different conditions/park resulted in two home runs and three outs on the warning track would we be frustrated that he was pulled too early?

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      On 7/30/2022 at 11:27 PM, jorgenswest said:

    Ryan was at 82 pitches. he was throwing strikes. Two of the home runs had an expected batting average around .200. All were just out of the reach of the outfielder.

    If he had pitched exactly the same but different conditions/park resulted in two home runs and three outs on the warning track would we be frustrated that he was pulled too early?

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    I forget the site, but there is one that lets you guesstimate whether a fly would be a home run in other ballparks.  San Diego is a pitcher's park, I believe.  Maybe it would have been more out of reach, not less, in most other parks?  I don't know.

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      On 7/30/2022 at 9:24 PM, cHawk said:

    Really? Fire the manager when in first place?

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    You mean the manager that was 11 games over .500 in May and should be at least 20 games over .500 by now and at least 10 games up on second instead of making the cummulative decisions that led to tanking to where we are now? That guy?

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      On 7/30/2022 at 11:34 PM, ashbury said:

    I forget the site, but there is one that lets you guesstimate whether a fly would be a home run in other ballparks.  San Diego is a pitcher's park, I believe.  Maybe it would have been more out of reach, not less, in most other parks?  I don't know.

    Expand  

    I was going by the expected batting average. The only home run that game with an expected batting average of 1.000 was Buxton’s. Hosmer’s was in the  .900s. Two were centered at .200. 

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      On 7/30/2022 at 11:34 PM, h2oface said:

    You mean the manager that was 11 games over .500 in May and should be at least 20 games over .500 by now and at least 10 games up on second instead of making the cummulative decisions that led to tanking to where we are now? That guy?

    Expand  

    Is this a real take? You think this pitching staff should be twenty games over? There are five teams at that pace or better....

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      On 7/31/2022 at 12:09 AM, Mike Sixel said:

    Is this a real take? You think this pitching staff should be twenty games over? There are five teams at that pace or better....

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    manager decisions. regardless of staff with this offense. They only needed to have the outcome changed on 9 games. You bet it is a real take, There were way more than 9 that Baldelli deisions were a top contributing factor.

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      On 7/31/2022 at 12:49 AM, h2oface said:

    manager decisions. regardless of staff with this offense. They only needed to have the outcome changed on 9 games. You bet it is a real take, There were way more than 9 that Baldelli deisions were a top contributing factor.

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    If only we hired you as manager, we'd one of the best teams in baseball!

    I just don't get how you can view Baldelli as a bigger issue then the horrific pitching, which has been the worst pitching by ERA since Wes left / the past month. It's not Rocco's fault the starters stink and the bullpen is worse, there's no reinforcements in the minors, that Bundy and Smith were the biggest FA additions to the pitching staff, and that the FO still hasn't made any trades. Hiring anybody else as manager wouldn't fix those issues.

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      On 7/31/2022 at 12:49 AM, h2oface said:

    manager decisions. regardless of staff with this offense. They only needed to have the outcome changed on 9 games. You bet it is a real take, There were way more than 9 that Baldelli deisions were a top contributing factor.

    Expand  

    Can you clarify which lock down relievers and how many innings these relievers were supposed to go?

    Because I assume your answer is Duran and he should pitch all the innings. 

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      On 7/31/2022 at 1:19 AM, Danchat said:

    If only we hired you as manager, we'd one of the best teams in baseball!

    I just don't get how you can view Baldelli as a bigger issue then the horrific pitching, which has been the worst pitching by ERA since Wes left / the past month. It's not Rocco's fault the starters stink and the bullpen is worse, there's no reinforcements in the minors, that Bundy and Smith were the biggest FA additions to the pitching staff, and that the FO still hasn't made any trades. Hiring anybody else as manager wouldn't fix those issues.

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    Ooooooooo. I believe that is a personal attack. Or a great compliment, for which I thank you.

    I never said it was a bigger issue. "a top contributing factor". Yup. Horrible bullpen. Baldy's decisions are his. 

    I'll say it again, and correct my typos. 

    There were way more than 9 Baldelli decisions that were a top contributing factor.

    A top, not necessarily the top.

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      On 7/31/2022 at 1:48 AM, nicksaviking said:

    Can you clarify which lock down relievers and how many innings these relievers were supposed to go?

    Because I assume your answer is Duran and he should pitch all the innings. 

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    We all know the ol' assume saying.

    It wouldn't matter if I spent hours to notate all the specific instances. You will argue what you will anyway. This is how I feel. And of course it isn't Duran should pitch all the innings. I certainly wouldn't have made him throw a wasted eighth inning in Saturday's game when the score was 7-1!!!!!!

    And there were at least 15 games over the season so far that the starter was cruising and pulled way too early (like today again). That adds up to torch your pen, whoever they are. And that is a Baldy decision. The contributing factor is not always the pen, but it is still a Baldy decision.

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      On 7/31/2022 at 5:45 AM, h2oface said:

    And there were at least 15 games over the season so far that the starter was cruising and pulled way too early (like today again). That adds up to torch your pen, whoever they are. And that is a Baldy decision. The contributing factor is not always the pen, but it is still a Baldy decision.

    Expand  

    So it sounds like Baldelli has two choices. Pull the starters early and have fans call for him to get fired. Or clearly defy his bosses by leaving them in and actually get fired.

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      On 7/31/2022 at 6:15 AM, nicksaviking said:

    So it sounds like Baldelli has two choices. Pull the starters early and have fans call for him to get fired. Or clearly defy his bosses by leaving them in and actually getting fired.

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    I have never once called for Baldelli to get fired. I can have an opinion about his decisions without calling for his job. 

    So you feel that Baldelli is not managing, but a puppet of his bosses? The decisions made are not his, but Falvey or Levine's? I guess I was giving him more credit and am of the mind that he is the manager and the decisions are his.

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      On 7/31/2022 at 6:15 AM, nicksaviking said:

    So it sounds like Baldelli has two choices. Pull the starters early and have fans call for him to get fired. Or clearly defy his bosses by leaving them in and actually get fired.

    Expand  

    First of all, while I agree overall pitching strategies are almost certainly decided above Baldelli, I strongly doubt individual in-game pitching decisions are. Exactly if/when to remove pitchers, which relievers to use and exactly when. Etc etc. 

    So "we're of the belief we can get more effective starting pitching if we limit their exposure" comes from the FO, or a collaboration, "I'm taking my best guy out after 5 and less than 80 pitches" is 100 percent Baldelli. As was leaving Ryan in to get shelled the previous night. I wonder if one might be an overreaction to the other?

    Using Duran last night, with a 6 run lead: Baldelli. 100 percent Baldelli. And I would imagine not a decision the FO would be pleased with, by the way.

    Secondly, it's "some fans," not "fans," but more importantly it's pretty lazy analysis to constantly fall back on the "what do fans know" defense. Or set up two strawman sides to argue against. 

    Baldelli, by the way, will almost certainly get fired at some point. Like ?95? percent of all MLB managers. A few retire. The rest get canned. That's not a reasonable defense either.

    Defend the decisions. That's what should be discussed.

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      On 7/31/2022 at 1:19 AM, Danchat said:

    If only we hired you as manager, we'd one of the best teams in baseball!

    I just don't get how you can view Baldelli as a bigger issue then the horrific pitching, which has been the worst pitching by ERA since Wes left / the past month. It's not Rocco's fault the starters stink and the bullpen is worse, there's no reinforcements in the minors, that Bundy and Smith were the biggest FA additions to the pitching staff, and that the FO still hasn't made any trades. Hiring anybody else as manager wouldn't fix those issues.

    Expand  

    Could all of that be true, and still be sometimes compounded by some questionable managing?

    I don't think ANYone would argue Rocco has plenty of good options.

    But it seems to me that makes it pretty important he use what he has efficiently and smartly. No?

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      On 7/31/2022 at 6:23 AM, h2oface said:

    I have never once called for Baldelli to get fired. I can have an opinion about his decisions without calling for his job. 

    So you feel that Baldelli is not managing, but a puppet of his bosses? The decisions made are not his, but Falvey or Levine's? I guess I was giving him more credit and am of the mind that he is the manager and the decisions are his.

    Expand  

    I do think Baldelli is largely an on field avatar for the overall brain trust, of which he’s only moderately influential of.

    I absolutely think before every game they determine ‘starter a’ gets x innings or x pitches or gets pulled once ‘batter a’ comes to the plate for a third time. 
     

    Id guess there is another discussion about which relievers are to be used with his real freedom only being able to decide the order they’re used based on matchups.

    I don’t like that Gray only went 5 innings or that Duran was used in a blowout, but I  do believe Baldelli is just following the conglomerate’s game plan.

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      On 7/30/2022 at 10:58 PM, Mike Sixel said:

    To be clear, Cincy, Detroit, KC, etc are always playing for next year (pittsburgh is another).....so it isn't like that plan is guaranteed to work. 

    And, there is a really good article online right now about trading prospects for elite players, the team getting the elite player often wins the deal.....because lots of prospects don't work out.

    Expand  

    No ... Pittsburgh / KC and Detroit have been bad for a prolonged period.  They have not been a position to be buyers which is a very different scenario from what you are implying or the situation the twins find themselves.  It's reasonable the Twins would be buyers.  The question is how much should the Twins leverage their future for this team?  The teams you mentioned have had absolutely no chance.  

    Wasn't the article you are referencing specifically about position players?  If so, how is that relevant to the Twins situation?  We have recent examples in the Clevinger and Kluber trades where those players were hurt and provided nothing while those teams gave significant long-term assets.  Clase for Kluber, Miller / Naylor and Quantrill for Clevinger.  Snell has not been of significant value and of course there is always the Shields for Tatis jr.  

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      On 7/31/2022 at 12:52 PM, USAFChief said:

    Could all of that be true, and still be sometimes compounded by some questionable managing?

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    Absolutely. I think that Baldelli isn’t close to being the main problem - but he’s also not the solution to any, either.

      On 7/31/2022 at 3:15 PM, nicksaviking said:

    I do think Baldelli is largely an on field avatar for the overall brain trust, of which he’s only moderately influential of.

    I absolutely think before every game they determine ‘starter a’ gets x innings or x pitches or gets pulled once ‘batter a’ comes to the plate for a third time.

    Expand  

    Agreed, Rocco seems to be a puppet - which is why I’ve grown more disillusioned with the front office rather than directing it mostly at Rocco.

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