Twins 1, Padres 10: Twins West Coast Tour Starts with Another Loss

52 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

It's a seller's market.  Time to join the fun and see how desperate other teams are.  Offer up Kepler, Sano, Urshela, Sanchez, Cave, Beckham, and even Polanco.  Who knows what you might get offered?  And if no one offers anything of value, keep the players and you are no worse off than you are now.  This season is over.

All 7 at once, or a smorgasbord where they could pick what they want?    

Honestly, most of the pitching staff was due for massive regression. Even after being shelled for 10 runs, Ryan still isn't there yet as he lucked out in 4 of 5 of his starts in July. His 3.78 ERA is still way lower than his 4.43 FIP and 4.63 xFIP.

As of June 30, ERA vs FIP vs xFIP and what their season xFIPs have done since June 30th.
Ryan 3.20 vs. 3.93 vs. 4.65 (xFIP is down 0.02)
Gray 2.17 vs. 2.86 vs. 3.31 (xFIP is up 0.48)
Archer 3.08 vs. 4.90 vs. 4.99 (xFIP is up 0.09)
Bundy 4.71 vs. 4.32 vs. 4.44 (xFIP is down 0.10)
Smeltzer 2.86 vs. 4.41 vs. 4.67 (xFIP is up 0.32)

Apart from Bundy, every other Twins pitcher had an ERA at least 1.24 pts lower than their xFIP The rotation is pitching very similar to how they were, they're just not getting ridiculously lucky anymore.

I don't mind the Twins playing Sano. He's on the roster so they could get a peek at him so I don't see the harm in doing what they intended. A couple more days of game time before DFAing him is fine. Now... if Sano continues to struggle at the plate and he's still on the roster after mid August, now there's a problem.

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

The team woes start with the Manager.  Playing Sano is a mistake. The guys needs to be DFA'd. Batting Arraez 6th is a mistake. He should always be batting in front of Buxton. How many of Buxtons solo shots would be 2 or 3 run homers if Rocco knew how to set a lineup? Ryan gives up 10 runs only due to Roccos inability to in-game manage. He'll pull a starter who's at 80 pitches and pitching with the lead and then leaves Ryan in when he clearly doesn't have his best stuff to get hammered and make the game a blowout basically giving the team no chance to come back and win it. 

I said before the All-Star game this team was toast. Thanks to Rocco, the toast is burning.

I sometimes wonder if they purposely set the team up to lose so they have excuses to let the Correa’s of the world go and go into the wait till next year mode.  

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

That maybe, maybe pressure from the family to be home more, maybe the money was too much to pass up, maybe a combination of all of the above.......it is a head scratcher.  I can see where one might think something went wrong, though, because I have never read anywhere (maybe someone else has?) that the Twins tried to match or beat the offer.  

Maybe Wes also knew the wheels were be about to fall off the Twins pitching staff so he decided to take a better gig (perhaps before he got fired).

sano went o-3 and the twins are 0-3 with him in the line-up.

On the Lewis thought..,,

The collision into the wall didn’t seems unusual. There had to be a weakness that would have surfaced at some point.

There was talk about extending Falvey and Levine this year / end of this season... it's Year 6 of their regime and we still haven't won a playoff game, the pitching staff is an unmitigated disaster for a second straight season and we once again do not have pitching prospects in the wings. There are things they do well - they know how to build a solid lineup and develop hitting prospects very well - but how can we sign up for several more years of this with the lack of results?

The way Rocco handled the young starter last night was disgusting.  My friends and I watching the game were so angry.  Keep in mind, this game was following a day off where relievers would have been available, We are so sick of Rocco. I'll say it again.  They will never win a playoff game as long as he is manager.  

Watching Sano last night was a joke.  This team is not serious about their performance on the field.

In the story, Gleeman mentioned about how his is the first time in a long while the starter gave up 10 runs.  I was at a game in August 2019 where Berrios gave up 9 runs.  Another Rocco debacle.  In that game they came back with 4 homers but it was too late, Rocco had already thrown the game away. 

Can we trade Rocco, please?

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

All 7 at once, or a smorgasbord where they could pick what they want?    

All of the above. ?????

Remember when a album got a scratch and it would repeat over and over?   Seems we have been listening to the same album for more than 10 years.   That is what it is like being a Twins fan.  

Most teams would fire their manager after yesterday.  

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

A little off subject here, but if the Twins didn't sign Correa, would Lewis have gotten hurt? Did signing Correa (cost) prevent us from signing relievers? What does having our pitching coach leave mid-season mean for our pitching staff the rest of the year?

Ace Wrigley, great to hear from you. I enjoy your posts but have missed seeing them. Your q's today are spot-on. Somebody here needs to do a hard interview with Falvinepohlad and get to the bottom of this drama. I vote for Ace to press the metal to the petal and force some answers. Some possible responses, fwiw:

Q1: "Well, he wouldnt have crashed into the wall, because he WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN PLAYING CF. Here at Twinsland, we realize now our multimillion dollar investment in our #1 guy hasnt been managed well, and we are committted to developing his talent at 1 position only, because it really is just plain silly of us to expend  a #1 pick on a guy we want to use in a utility role. "

Q2: " Thank you, that's a great question. We have no comment at this time, because none of us here can really explain the Correa signing while also doing the Berrios-Rogers trades. Seemed like a great idea at the time, and besides, Scott Boras scares the living hell out of us. We do what he tells us."

Q3: "You know, pitching coaches are all the same, they chew the same chaw, their belly fat flabs over the beltline, hat sizes are a size small, they belch and fart a lot, and at the end of the day, ones about as good as another."

I thought Ryan/ Snell match up was our best shot of winning a game. Snell isn't that good and Ryan be great at times especially after the DET game. IMO something isn't right in the clubhouse. Maybe Wes Johnson is part of it but I think it could something more. Some of the players seem very uninspired

3 hours ago, Aichiman said:

I read that too, but I don't buy it.  I mean it's plausible, but it doesn't explain his abrupt departure in the middle of the season.  Something must have happened within the Twins' organization that alienated Johnson in some way.  What?  I don't know.

Maybe he got tired of Rocco, like the rest of us.

2 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

A little off subject here, but if the Twins didn't sign Correa, would Lewis have gotten hurt? Did signing Correa (cost) prevent us from signing relievers? What does having our pitching coach leave mid-season mean for our pitching staff the rest of the year?

I have often thought the same thing. Lewis at SS wouldn't be running into any outfield walls right? Maybe down the 3rd base line...Hmmm! Not sure signing Correa would have mattered to signing relievers. They basically traded Donaldson to free up money for Correa. I wish they would have kept Kiner-Falafa and settled with a combo of Arraez and Miranda at 3rd. If they could have found someone to give them 2 or 3 really good relievers for Donaldson that might have been better but it's probably tough to trade a high priced aging veteran for more than 1 player in return unless the guys you are getting aren't that good.. I think Correa is over-rated and with that over-paid. Great glove but he's not a game changer with the bat. 

I didn't watch the game, but waking up this morning and when I looked at the score I wasn't surprised.  What I looked at Sano's stat line I wasn't surprised.  When I saw the offense go limp I wasn't surprised.  What surprised me was that Rocco let Ryan take all those earned runs without pulling the ejection cord early, and then apparently with no pressure on the bullpen decides to go lights-out the rest of the way - THAT was surprising.

1 hour ago, HokieRif said:

I didn't watch the game, but waking up this morning and when I looked at the score I wasn't surprised.  What I looked at Sano's stat line I wasn't surprised.  When I saw the offense go limp I wasn't surprised.  What surprised me was that Rocco let Ryan take all those earned runs without pulling the ejection cord early, and then apparently with no pressure on the bullpen decides to go lights-out the rest of the way - THAT was surprising.

You're right, it is confusing.  The BP had 5 days off, played 2 games, had a day off, played 2 games, and had another day off.  So why make Ryan take one for the team, so to speak, only to put Gordon in in the 8th to save the BP another inning?  This guy gets curiouser and curiouser every year I watch him.    

First of all, no teams that wear uniforms in an MLB game like the Padres did, deserve to win a game, especially 10-1.

All of the homers that Ryan gave us were crawlers, barely over the wall. A couple might have been caught (Buxton just missed, and Garlick looks like he can only jump 4 inches). All almost long fly ball outs, and with the 2 out homers, the end of the innings.

But Baldelli can go.................... himself. Shame on him, especially after the game went to 6-1 and 4 homers given up, leave his rookie starter in the game that has been carrying this staff. He clearly was missing locations from the get go with the walk and a homer in the first. All homers that were hit were center cut pitches (all in the center of the plate, one center center and others various heights) except the last one, that was center height but 6-8 inches outside! All just crawled over the fence. Great for confidence Baldy, and thanks for putting Ryan in the wrong category of the record book. No excuse for that. It was not his game, and he deserves better protection. My opinion of Baldelli and his lack of intuition can now never be swayed otherwise. Right now, I can't stand the guy. 

As for Wes Johnson, whatever the pitchers are doing now, he is greatly responsible for. If you learn something, you don't just forget it when the guy is not there a few weeks later. It is still affecting your performance, and probably will for a long time. One might say that Johnson is responsible for the currrent state of affairs. I won't, because I think the coach is always overrated. Usually never could do it themselves, but are all high and mighty about how to do it. I am not saying they are not very helpful and important, just that it is always the player who plays the game, regardless of the coach. This team's pitching was horrible before Johnson left, and got worse as the year went on, with Johnson still there. He is no guru. And he is a quitter. Middle of the season and in first place. No respect. SMH.

I recall the tv guys talking to Ryan during one of the brewer games.  He mentioned something about going back to Cali, surfing, etc.  Also said he would have to be careful cause he was starting Friday.  Is it possible he did some activity which affected his prep for or stamina during the game?  Could Rocco keeping him out there been a lesson to a young pup?  

52 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Really? Fire the manager when in first place?

First place in the AL Central isn’t much to brag about.  When they fall out of 1st I don’t think they would get a wild card.   

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Did we all see what the M’s gave up for Castillo? We’d have to completely gut our prospect list to get to that level - and we need 3-4 Castillo types to realistically have any chance to contend.

The data points are there.  It’s ok to take a step back and reevaluate where this team truly stands with a clear mind and open eyes. Sure - we are clinging to a rapidly evaporating division lead. But we are obviously more than one or two players away. Our window should be more open next year and then the following year than it is now. Any moves we make should be to enhance that realisation, not jeopardise it. 

Watching last night’s game, I was dumbfounded and saddened to see Rocco leave our top young starter in to give up 10 runs. After Machado it was perfectly clear to everyone it was not Ryan’s night. Rocco leaves him in to get battered for four more runs to get one more out. That was inexcusable. I hope Ryan can either forget or learn from that. Psyche’s in young pitchers can be tricky.

Looking for a strong rebound game today!

It’s always “next year”.   And there is the fact that not many prospects survive.  I feel like we wait forever and then they are injured most often.  Don’t you get sick of next year?

15 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

It’s always “next year”.   And there is the fact that not many prospects survive.  I feel like we wait forever and then they are injured most often.  Don’t you get sick of next year?

So let's do something really stupid instead of executing a plan with the best probability of success.  

BTW ... he number of prospects that "survive has very little value in measuring the impact of trading prospects for elite / established pitching.  That measure would be exclusively the prospects traded for elite pitching.  When you look at prospects returned for pitchers like Sale / Clevinger / Kluber / Shields, etc you will find a much higher frequency of success.  I cringe every time someone uses the failed prospects argument in this context because it is quite misquided.

1 hour ago, roger said:

I recall the tv guys talking to Ryan during one of the brewer games.  He mentioned something about going back to Cali, surfing, etc.  Also said he would have to be careful cause he was starting Friday.  Is it possible he did some activity which affected his prep for or stamina during the game?  Could Rocco keeping him out there been a lesson to a young pup?  

Well, that is all pretty assumptive. 

A Lesson? Baldelli showed him. Bobby Knight school of pain.