Treason: Is Dobnak Lucking Out Against Easy Competition?

We loaded the bases with no outs against Severino and he got out of it with no damage.   Dobnak loads them up with no outs, was pulled and all inherited runners scored.   I didn't like the move because to that point Dobnak had a short history of battling and executing quality pitches in tough situations.   Now of course he could have just as easily given up those runs but my level  of confidence in him was such that I wish he had been left in.    I had more confidence in Odorizzi last year but by the end of the year next in line was Dobnak and Pineda over Berrios.   I don't get the logic that says he is pitching like CY Young against weaker lineups, the rest of the staff gives up twice as many runs against the same lineups but Dobnak benefits from it more.   Of course, he could end up getting shelled by anyone any time but until it happens my confidence in him is as great as it is in anyone.  

Appreciate the numbers, graphs opinion and speculation. And I won't argue against any of it.

I don't think anyone will argue that Dobnak is any kind of Cy Young candidate in any way shape or form. That would be ludicrous. Between 2019 and this season he has yet to even hit 50IP as I write this. So ANY speculation on his future is a bit ridiculous at this point. He's off to a great start and you can only do what you can do every time you go out there, no matter what team/lineup you face.

Again, good so far, and he offers up optimism.

And he could SO a few more. At worst, he could just put away a few more guys earlier rather than extending himself in certain AB. And I highly doubt he will be a front of the rotation SP in any way. But, even in SSS, there is enough evidence to at least suggest he can continue to develop in to a bulldog pitcher who can successfully fill the role of a quality 4th, or at worst 5th ML SP.

I don't think anyone expects him to continue the numbers he's shown thus far. But when things settle down, and he proves to be an innings eater with a high 3.0 ERA who does a solid job daily, I'll take that.

How has Berrios performed against the same teams?  Dobnak is not an Ace, he is just dependable and that is really nice.  I wish the others had his consistency. 

How has Berrios performed against the same teams? Dobnak is not an Ace, he is just dependable and that is really nice. I wish the others had his consistency.

This. He isn’t an analytics dream. All he does is get guys out. Will it continue I don’t know but until then maybe some of the Twins other starters should take notice especially Berrios.

This. He isn’t an analytics dream. All he does is get guys out. Will it continue I don’t know but until then maybe some of the Twins other starters should take notice especially Berrios.

I love the guys that can't be quantified - they just win.

Are there any command statistics? That is where Dobnak really stands out and where Berrios is lacking.

I'm very much OK with the slotted 5th starter consistently beating inferior competition. Last time I checked that is the definition of a superior 5th starter.

I would focus the concern on our slotted #1 and #2 starters.

I like Dobnak. However he is a pitch to contact guy and when he faces a loaded lineup, like the Yankees, his luck will likely run out.

Dobnak`s success comes from his high GB % not his SOs, along w/ his consistency & tenacity. He will do well as long as he gets the support he needs. I don`t think he`ll ever wow us w/ his stuff but he gets the job done.

one reason for his improved performance and lower BABIP could be an improved defense; the Twins are shifting even more, Arraez appears to have improved defensively...again, we expect regression. Dobnak isn't likely to have the best ERA in baseball, or the best ERA+ in baseball. But his FIP is still excellent and if he's keeping the ball in the park he's going to be fine.

There's also the interesting question of counter-programming for a pitcher like Dobnak. With the focus on velocity, pitching up in the zone, and more hitter on the all or nothing plan...we may be seeing that a pitcher like Dobnak may benefit by utilizing a pitching style that hitters aren't seeing often (especially in a weird year like this one).

It's an interesting question, but this is also a year where a guy might be able to ride small sample size results.

Regardless, Dobnak has been great for the Twins so far and they've really needed him in the rotation.

I guess I applaud the fact you didn't do an article on how great Dobnik is and that he will become the ace of the staff, but come on. The guy proved everyone wrong as he moved through single A, AA, AAA before making the big league club last year pitching outstanding baseball the whole way. Now he has a phenomenal start to 2020.

Keeps the ball down with incredible accuracy and movement on the ball resulting in ground balls and has the confidence to attack the hitters. Sounds like a recipe for success to me. As for pitching against the Yankees who doesn't have problems.

But I prefer this to a puff piece.

Dobnak will of course fare worse against better competition, by definition. However, even a good-hitting team isn't chock full of guys that can straighten out all those sinkers, sinking sliders, sinking curves and sinking change-up's that Dobbs delivers low in the zone, over and over. 

Assuming every other guy doesn't launch a 5-iron golf swing homer off him, let's say they do get some 1-iron line drives. Some still get caught, a few in the gap. Now you have a runner on 2nd base. Unless the next guy is just as good a golfer, you may get a ground ball out, a strikeout, or some other kind of out. The inning can still end without damage. 

Why the rosy scenario? Because I've seen Dobnak work out of situations. He doesn't buckle under pressure, he keeps fighting. He's got statistics on his side. If he continues to command low, sinking pitches on the edges, chances are good that a single hit does little damage. Nor is it likely that his stuff gets hammered for 5 or 6 runs in an inning, for that same reason. Sinking pitches tend to get pounded into the ground, over and over. 

Other than even better command, what I'd like to see from Dobnak is to develop a high-riding heater he can plant in the upper corners. 92 mph is just fine if you can throw it where Odorizzi does. But it does need a fair amount of backspin...

copy and pasted from twitter

Trust me, I know I am Randy’s Dad and I am biased. Having said that, has anyone looked at his minor league numbers?  24-9 ERA=2.57. your saying all those were weak teams?  Put those minor #’s up against anyone elses minor #’s & make a list. I know this isn't the olympics but if you take out 2 bad starts his  ERA is 2.14

I look forward to your list of Pitchers from say the last 5 years that put up better numbers in the minors. Also,as he moved up from low A to triple A, his numbers for the most part, got better at each level. Just because someone isn’t a #1 pick doesn’t mean they can’t be GREAT! #CHASETHEDREAM

One other hidden stat. in his first full year as a Pro 2018, he went 7 or more innings 10 times. there was no one (1 that I could find did it 8 times) that came close while putting up similar numbers. playoff gm that year 7ip,6hits,1bb,0runsMan shrugging he avg 5.5 innings per gm that year

Has he been Lucky this entire time?  

Based on the data shared above on of the points I was making is that he doesn’t have incredible movement, but you’re right about the accuracy. Remember he’s hitting the bottom of the zone but teams still have an above average hard hit rate against him...that’s where I worry a better hitting team is able to do more damage.

Ummm have you noticed that he has been our best pitcher going on a year now? Maybe focus on the results and not worry so much about how it happens.