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  • Trade Deadline: What if the Twins Do Nothing?


    Seth Stohs

    Happy Trade Deadline Day, Twins Fans! This should be a fun day as the Twins find themselves Buyers at the deadline for the first time in a decade. I fully expect the Twins to acquire at least one pitcher before today’s 3 p.m. (central time) deadline, but what if they don’t? What if they stand pat?

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today

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    On Tuesday night, Cleveland finally traded All Star starting pitcher Trevor Bauer. Typically that move would be seen as the team selling, but in this case, I do believe that they got better. They have pitching, and seem to keep calling pitchers up who do well. Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac are two guys who fit into that mold. They also should be getting Corey Kluber back in the near future.

    Their need was offense, and they added two powerful outfielders in Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes in the three-team swap. They also added LHP Logan Allen, a Top 100 prospect, and two more minor leaguers.

    It was a very creative move for Cleveland. The Twins were very creative in their acquisition of Sergio Romo over the weekend. Not only did the Twins receive the veteran reliever, but they also received hard-throwing RHP Chris Vallimont and a Player to be Named Later for slugging first base prospect Lewin Diaz.

    On its own, the Twins made a really, creative, savvy move to improve their bullpen and improve the team. Twins fans have generally felt that the trade was good for the Twins, though that thought always comes with the “as long as it isn’t the only move they make by the deadline.”

    But what if it is? What if Sergio Romo is the only player that the Twins add? What will it mean? Here are my thoughts.

    DISAPPOINTMENT

    First and foremost, Twins fans will and rightfully should feel disappointment. On the basic level, it’s always fun to acquire talent. It doesn’t even have to be elite talent, but just make the team better. Let's just say, #TwinsTwitter will not handle it well, for sure!

    On another level, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have consistently said that when the Twins window to compete for championships opens, they will pounce. Well, the window is wide open. This team has the talent to compete, not only for the American League Central title but also for a World Series. They have won two of six games against the Yankees this year, and probably should have won two more of those games. They won four of their seven matchups with the Astros this year. They currently have an edge on Cleveland this year too. Those are the top teams in the American League, and the team should absolutely feel like they can compete for an American League pennant. And hey, if you get to the World Series, you have a chance.

    So Twins fans will absolutely have every right to be disappointed and even upset if nothing is done.

    HOWEVER…

    This is a very good team as is, as shown by their performance so far this year against the top teams in the league. Their lineup can compete with anyone. They can slug with the best. Pitching has been the issue although even that hasn’t been as bad as we may think. The starters rank in the top the top third of the league in most statistics. Some of that is because their #4 (Perez) and #5 (Pineda) have been better than most 4s and 5s around the league. Jose Berrios is approaching Ace level. Jake Odorizzi was an All Star for his strong start, but he has been more inconsistent of late. Kyle Gibson’s been good at times but also a bit inconsistent. Not adding a starter would just mean that these guys would need to step it up down the stretch. But would the Twins have a top three or top four that you could feel good about going into the playoffs?

    And the bullpen has been better than expected, though a lot of that is because of Taylor Rogers. Sergio Romo stepped in as the 8th inning guy last night in his Twins debut. Tyler Duffey has returned to an intriguing bullpen option. Ryne Harper has been a big surprise. Trevor May was doing well until the 0-2 curveball in Cleveland, but he has the stuff to dominate and will need to find that again.

    And then some young guys. Cody Stashak had a moment in the Yankees series. Sean Poppen reeling off 96-97 mph fastballs with a strong slider could be great for the team down the stretch. And if Will Smith and Felipe Vasquez are unavailable, I don’t think there is an available left-handed reliever that I would feel better about than giving Lewis Thorpe an opportunity. And Devin Smeltzer is available as well. The concern with them is their lack of MLB experience, obviously.

    In addition, Fernando Romero has been much improved of late in Rochester. And as it appears the odds of Cody Allen helping the Twins down the stretch is waning, flamethrower Brusdar Graterol returned to the mound on Monday for his first rehab appearance. Maybe he and his 101-mph fastball can help. Jorge Alcala and his triple-digit fastball pitched out of the bullpen in his most-recent outing.

    SUMMARY

    So, while I still think it is very likely that the Twins make one or two moves before the trade deadline, and this article will be all for naught, it is important for Twins fans to stand by a team that has put themselves in this position. Absolutely, be disappointed that nothing was done, but hopefully you’ll be able to quickly shift your attention back to the fact that this team, as it is currently put together, can win the division. And, if you are under the opinion (as I mostly am) that the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot, then you should still believe that the Twins can win in the playoffs too.

    All that said… Come On, Twins… Make a Move!

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    My reaction, to at least some extend, would depend on what I see the other contenders do. If multiple teams in the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros, Cubs categories can't make a 'big' deal for pitching...to me, that would be an indicator that this year was unique. I still think that's unlikely...but with 4 hours to go, and counting...it's looking at least possible.

    Edited by jkcarew
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    I would love to know where I said that.  I have offered only rationales for why the FO has not completed any deals bigger than Romo, while stating that lack of results is not the same as lack of activity.

     

    If you read some of the posts on here stating the level of irritation posters would have if no trade is completed, it's quite clear that a number of people think they're not really trying.

     

    I would say dumping a story to the media about the Mets wanting Buxton isn't *really* trying as hard as they can try, wouldn't you? I mean, yeah, they "tried" but they gave up pretty early on.

     

    I can't say I have ever heard a team dumping a story like that to the media, usually nobody knows what the negotiations are. Usually teams never disclose this stuff. It can't be good for any other prospective trading partners when the Twins publicly air their dirty laundry.

    "Trying" -> sure. Competently trying -> probably not.

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    Firing either Falvey or Levine considering where they have this team after 3 years, from where it was?.......Idiotic. A knee jerk reaction like that would set the team back from the direction it's headed in. 

    Yep, no way I would fire them.

     

    But maybe I'd dangle them in trade? They might be at peak value. See if we can get a couple 40 FV GM prospects for the future. :)

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    So if you go out to mow your yard, but the mower won't start because of a faulty spark plug, and once you've replaced the spark plug, its started to rain, and once it stops raining you have to go pick up your kid at school, and once you've picked up your kid you get rear-ended on the drive back home, and once you've finished dealing with the police and insurance the sun has gone down, leaving the yard unmowed, it's because you didn't try?

     

    Executives should not be dealing with all those little distractions.

     

    And yes, many executives would be out there yelling and demanding that the lawn gets mowed, regardless of all those little things, even the rain.

    Edited by Doomtints
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    So if you go out to mow your yard, but the mower won't start because of a faulty spark plug, and once you've replaced the spark plug, its started to rain, and once it stops raining you have to go pick up your kid at school, and once you've picked up your kid you get rear-ended on the drive back home, and once you've finished dealing with the police and insurance the sun has gone down, leaving the yard unmowed, it's because you didn't try?

     

    Yoda, by his own definition, is also a failure.  He did not prevent the rise of the Sith, leading to the creation of the empire, and the death of millions, if not billions of sentient beings.

     

    I would have checked my spark plugs at the beginning of the season and replaced them once I knew they were faulty....... ;)

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    Executives should not be dealing with all those little distractions.

     

    And yes, many executives would be out there yelling and demanding that the lawn get mowed, regardless of all those little things.

    Completely unrelated from the thread, but I have mowed my lawn after dark with a headlamp before. I have also walked across the street to get my neighbor's mower and mowed my lawn with his mower (we're long time friends). Sometimes you need to get things done, so you do. 

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    I would say dumping a story to the media about the Mets wanting Buxton isn't *really* trying as hard as they can try, wouldn't you? I mean, yeah, they "tried" but they gave up pretty early on.

     

    I can't say I have ever heard a team dumping a story like that to the media, usually nobody knows what the negotiations are. Usually teams never disclose this stuff. It can't be good for any other prospective trading partners when the Twins publicly air their dirty laundry.

    "Trying" -> sure. Competently trying -> probably not.

     

    Again, a lot of assumptions here (unless you have proof I haven't seen).  It's entirely possible this wasn't dumped, but leaked.  I can't fault Falvine if an unidentified staffer has a beer too many and blurts out something to a reporter they shouldn't.  I also can't discount that it could've been someone from the Mets putting that report out--maybe they would have been happy to get Buxton, but they were actually trying to drive up the price with another organization.

     

    There is just so little information out there, not to mention the meaning behind it, that it is impossible to gauge the effectiveness of a front office's efforts unless you are on the inside.  Since none of us are, I choose to believe that our FO is good at what they do, given the results on the field, and the general misery of assuming otherwise.

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    I would be extremely upset. You can claim all you want that the "price was too much", but I know for a fact you can get Ian Kennedy pretty reasonable and all you need to do is take on the salary, and if we don't end up with anyone you didn't try at all in my opinion.

    This all day.

    If you eat the whole contract the prospect cost should be minimal. It's about money with Kennedy.

     

    And to all who are saying the Twins could stand pat and they are good to go for the next several years, remember what Jim Kaat said just a few years ago (paraphrasing)

    'After 1965 we thought we would be back to the World Series again and again. We had young stars like Oliva and Versalles, a feared hitter in the Killer, strong pitching, and yet it didn't come together.

    You have to jump when the opportunity presents itself.'

    (Kaat was referring to the decision by the Nationals [i think in 2012] to shut Strasburg down for the rest of the year because of innings count. The Nationals were having a great year, and of course, Kaat felt they were acting like Strasburg was made of Balsa wood.)

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    I can't say I have ever heard a team dumping a story like that to the media, usually nobody knows what the negotiations are. Usually teams never disclose this stuff. It can't be good for any other prospective trading partners when the Twins publicly air their dirty laundry.

    I think other teams have done similarly. I'll bet the Yankees did it after the Johan trade in 2008 -- "the Twins demanded Cano to be part of any deal" (when Cano was already an MLB all-star) when it's possible the Twins only asked for Cano after the Yankees said "no dice" on Hughes, Melky Cabrera, etc. (Seems like Lester or Ellsbury were indeed on the table from Boston, though. Ah, memories!)

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    I hope they make another trade, and I think they will.

     

    If they don’t, it’s important to remember that the bullpen has actually been solid this year. It’s not anywhere close to the disaster some people seem to think it is.

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    Disappointing if no help is added? Definitely.

     

    Firing either Falvey or Levine considering where they have this team after 3 years, from where it was?.......Idiotic. A knee jerk reaction like that would set the team back from the direction it's headed in. 

     

    I would have checked my spark plugs at the beginning of the season and replaced them once I knew they were faulty....... ;)

     

    Sure, because we all know that spark plugs only fail in winter, and when they do fail, loudly announce that fact immediately.

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    I think many of the prospects mean very little to the Twins especially with the core they have at this point in time. Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Garver, etc... There really isn't a lot of space on this team for position players in the minors. In my opinion many of those prospects should be worth more to other teams than they are to the Twins. Use them or eventually lose them anyway?? Go out and get a couple of relievers and or a starter and a reliever, etc....

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    I think many of the prospects mean very little to the Twins especially with the core they have at this point in time. Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Garver, etc... There really isn't a lot of space on this team for position players in the minors. In my opinion many of those prospects should be worth more to other teams than they are to the Twins. Use them or eventually lose them anyway?? Go out and get a couple of relievers and or a starter and a reliever, etc....

     

    Right. The Twins have the opportunity to improve in areas of need by trading from areas of strength.

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    Completely unrelated from the thread, but I have mowed my lawn after dark with a headlamp before. I have also walked across the street to get my neighbor's mower and mowed my lawn with his mower (we're long time friends). Sometimes you need to get things done, so you do. 

     

    In this analogy where the mower is the prospects and the yard is the trade return, I assume the Twins neighbor (another MLB club) isn't going to let them use their prospects to get a deal done, at least not without some cost.  If it's a beer, fine.  If it's your brand new car, not so much.

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    Sure, because we all know that spark plugs only fail in winter, and when they do fail, loudly announce that fact immediately.

    C'mon, it's an analogy to maintenance, you brought it up. It's pretty widely accepted there were questions about this bullpen before the season began and plenty of time and opportunity to do something about it. I'm willing to accept that Falvine were of the mind that they didn't expect this team to be where they are so far this season. If they aren't surprised, it's legitimate to question why they didn't do anything then and haven't done anything to this point. 

     

    I'd also add, much of what people are saying here is speculation in the absence of facts. It's a discussion forum, if speculating wasn't allowed we wouldn't have much to talk about, since none of us actually know anything. 

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    Sure, because we all know that spark plugs only fail in winter, and when they do fail, loudly announce that fact immediately.

     

    Spark plugs usually die in the winter, yes. Replacement kits are sold to replace filters and spark plugs every spring. If you don't replace these parts in the spring, if your mower starts at all, it won't be starting for you all summer.

     

    Even worse, if you fail to replace the filters every spring you will often trip a fuel sensor which won't allow you to start the motor at all for up to a day.

     

    Not doing spring maintenance could be called an executive failure.

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    I also can't discount that it could've been someone from the Mets putting that report out--maybe they would have been happy to get Buxton, but they were actually trying to drive up the price with another organization.

    It was almost certainly a Twins source. It was a local reporter (Lavelle), and the same article from Lavelle contained info about the Twins negotiations with Toronto.

     

    National sources had the Mets ask as both Lewis and Kirilloff earlier.

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    So if you go out to mow your yard, but the mower won't start because of a faulty spark plug, and once you've replaced the spark plug, its started to rain, and once it stops raining you have to go pick up your kid at school, and once you've picked up your kid you get rear-ended on the drive back home, and once you've finished dealing with the police and insurance the sun has gone down, leaving the yard unmowed, it's because you didn't try?

     

    Yoda, by his own definition, is also a failure. He did not prevent the rise of the Sith, leading to the creation of the empire, and the death of millions, if not billions of sentient beings.

    would your wife accept any of those excuses for why the lawn still isnt mowed?

     

    I know for certain Mrs Chief wouldn't. Because, you know...excuses.

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    Executives should not be dealing with all those little distractions.

     

    And yes, many executives would be out there yelling and demanding that the lawn gets mowed, regardless of all those little things, even the rain.

     

    This is an analogy, and therefore these are not little distractions.  The faulty spark plug is an injured prospect, the rain is a team not being interested in your prospects, picking the kid up from school is working on a separate deal, and getting rear-ended is another team swooping in and stealing the player you were trying to acquire.  None of those are little distractions, and are all things every baseball executive must deal with. 

     

    Demanding something get done despite insurmountable obstacles is a good way to make calamitous decisions.

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    would your wife accept any of those excuses for why the lawn still isnt mowed?

    I know for certain Mrs Chief wouldn't. Because, you know...excuses.

     

    "I don't care that it's raining ... you could've mowed the lawn 2 days ago!" - Mrs. Chief.

     

    In baseball terms, Falvine is Chief, the fans are Mrs. Chief, and 2 days ago is last winter when everyone wanted them to actually address the bullpen.

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    I hope they make another trade, and I think they will.

    If they don’t, it’s important to remember that the bullpen has actually been solid this year. It’s not anywhere close to the disaster some people seem to think it is.

    True, yet they've DFA'd 4 of them in the last month. I'd just like to know the plan. 

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    So if you go out to mow your yard, but the mower won't start because of a faulty spark plug, and once you've replaced the spark plug, its started to rain, and once it stops raining you have to go pick up your kid at school, and once you've picked up your kid you get rear-ended on the drive back home, and once you've finished dealing with the police and insurance the sun has gone down, leaving the yard unmowed, it's because you didn't try?

     

    Yoda, by his own definition, is also a failure.  He did not prevent the rise of the Sith, leading to the creation of the empire, and the death of millions, if not billions of sentient beings.

    Damn, that first paragraph should be a Country Song.  

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    So if you go out to mow your yard, but the mower won't start because of a faulty spark plug, and once you've replaced the spark plug, its started to rain, and once it stops raining you have to go pick up your kid at school, and once you've picked up your kid you get rear-ended on the drive back home, and once you've finished dealing with the police and insurance the sun has gone down, leaving the yard unmowed, it's because you didn't try?

    Interestingly, I was thinking of a similar analogy after the Syndergaard/Buxton report!

     

    In my analogy, "I didn't have time to mow the lawn" corresponds to Lavelle's report that "the Mets asked for Buxton to be part of any deal".

     

    Here are those same two phrases again, with added context:

     

    "I didn't have time to mow the lawn, after I spent the afternoon cleaning old decorative beer signs"***

     

    "the Mets asked for Buxton to be part of any deal, after the Twins informed them Lewis and Kirilloff were unavailable"

     

    *** yes, I actually did this just the other day. Wife didn't mind, although the lawn still hasn't been mowed.

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    Interesting.  Googling "Mets want Buxton" leads to a lot of results, all of which invariably mention LEN3 as the only source for that claim; LEN3 is, of course, NOT on the Twins payroll, but rather the Star Tribune's.

     

    But seriously, go on.  Explain to me how any of the scenarios I posited before can't possibly be true.

     

    Semantics.

     

    LEN3 knows where his bread is buttered, and hasn't done anything to stir the pot in at least 5 years. Unless, of course, that stirred pot is the best place to get some sort of stew or soup during spring training.

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    I would be very unhappy if another move isn’t made today. I would definitely question my level of support going forward. That’s coming from someone who was excited to watch the Twins every day during all the 90+ loss seasons.

     

    I know the few posts I have made are risk averse when it comes to trading prospects, but if not now, when? The Twins have a great offense comprised of young players entering their primes. They have one of the deepest prospect pools in all of MLB. Go get some pitchers!

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