Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2021: Part 4 (1-5)

We've come to my first major disagreement with your rankings. On the open market I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Berrios would get more in return than Kepler. If we fast forward a year when Jose's service time is cut in half and we still have 3 or 4 more years of Kep, that might change, but I can't get on board with 2 years of Jose being less valuable than (insert any number here) years of Kepler

And I like Kep

Also, I think there should be a little "spiff" in your rankings for the fact that the team has exclusive negotiating rights with a player while he's still in arb

No disrespect but it's not close.

1. Maeda

2. Berrios

If Berrios is hurt the Twins have no shot on winning a playoff series. If Kepler is hurt then sub in Larnach/Cave/.....

Trade value: nothing is more valuable than a top starting pitcher being paid less than the market (see Rays).

The list looks about right to me. I might quibble a little with some of the individual positions, but the reality is there's not much difference between a guy being ranked 8 or 10.

Garver is probably the toughest call on the whole list, I think. His value is higher if he's 2019 Garv. If he's 2020 Garv, he doesn't make the list at all. If he's 2018ish Garv...this is pretty close? And we just don't know who he is, if 2019 was a fluke or not. If 2020 should just be written off as a fluky, injury pandemic year. It's a really tough call.

I'm excited to see Kirilloff in MLB this year.

Great  articles and analysis. Thanks Nick. 

I agree with Berrios and Maeda as the top two, Kiriloff and his potential is number three - but just extend him and get him in the lineup.  With market for catcher being what we see across MLB I move Jeffers to number three.  I drop Cavaco and put in Celestino since Buxton's injury issues could make a replacement CF very important. I also move Kepler out of the top five - I have no faith he will be better. 

I move Garver down to 19 and move Rooker way up - he could be our DH at this point. 

I will not go into all my rankings, but really enjoyed your posts and the efforts you put in.  A good article is not about agreement, but about stimulating thoughts and responses so you rank right at the top with this list.   Thank you.

First, I want to thank you Nick for doing this series. What an interesting and different way of looking at the Twins roster and prospects.

Will disagree a bit on several of your comments. I don't think Lewis ceiling is any lower than ever. Although I understand that his trade value may be a bit lower. His numbers weren't what we expected two years ago, but then he went on to be the AFL MVP. Then last year happened and he didn't have the opportunity to show us who he is, unless you are of the belief that his not getting called up told us something. 

As for Berrios, we probably need to begin understanding that he may not ever be that legit ACE we all have been hoping for. Doesn't mean he isn't one heck of a pitcher who is very valuable to the Twins. Won't quibble with you about your placement at #4, just want to see the Twins get this kid extended...which probably won't happen this winter.

Much of what you wrote about Kepler is as good as I have seen, thanks. Don't know if he should be #2, but agree that Kirilloff is going to be an absolute star. Just doubt that much of it will be in right field. Personally think we are going to see him a lot at first base. Also expect to see him on their roster on opening day in April, May or whenever.

For all of us who are anxious to hear about the FO next moves, the Maeda deal should remind us to be patient...as the FO certainly is. When you take the contract into consideration, what a trade. Now lets hope like hell he repeats that performance in 2021.

Nothing left on the table. Well-done!

I can't really consider most prospects to be on this list. My feeling about prospects has always been that, if they are valuable, they should be up in the majors. Of course, there are some who are of value and should not be traded so could be considered. 

My list would be 1- Maeda 2- Berrios 3- Buxton 4-Donaldson 5- Arreaz 6- Kirilloff (the lone minor leaguer in the top 10) 7- Duffy 8- Kepler (not really as valuable as some have him) 9- Alcala 10- Rogers (our only proven closer). Garver would be just outside this list as would Larnach and Dhuran. I would have included Cruz at #3 and Odorizzi at #6 and back everyone else up if they were on the team. Just my opinion.

Agree with the list, but I absolutely hate this sentiment that Alex Kiriloff wont be up until May and were ok with it.  If he's the best option in a playoff elimination game, than he's the best option to win games in April.  If we want him around in 2027 than pay him what he'll be worth.  

Agree with the list, but I absolutely hate this sentiment that Alex Kiriloff wont be up until May and were ok with it.  If he's the best option in a playoff elimination game, than he's the best option to win games in April.  If we want him around in 2027 than pay him what he'll be worth.  

With this CBA expiring after 2021, I expect this is the last season we will see these particular shenanigans employed.

This list is so much fun Nick. Thank you.

My only substantial point of disagreement, which has been pointed out by many others already, is the ranking of Arraez. You seem so low on him, it's borderline shocking.

He is projected to have the 2nd most WAR on the roster in 2021 by ZiPS. Steamer has him as the best two bagger in the AL per 600PAs.

Add in that Arraez is essentially the same age as Jeffers and Larnach, only a half year older than Kirilloff, under team control for five more years, vs six with those guys, and I feel like you have a more valuable asset than either Jeffers or Larnach, one that is much closer to Kirilloff. 

Just my two cents. Thanks again Nick. Keep doing the things. Appreciate you.

Thanks for the work put into this. I would have to disagree with some of the placings though. IMO Maeda and Berrios would have to be #1 and #2. I fully and wholeheartedly disagree with Kepler at #3. He's a career .237 hitting corner outfielder. So what if he can play CF as a backup. I think you value that aspect way too much. A defensive upgrade on the bench to cover CF such as a Pillar is easily attainable. I suspect/expect the hitting of Kirilloff and Larnach (when given the chance) will make us forget Kepler. Sorry, I just don't understand the love for a .237 hitter. I would put Arraez at #3. I like .330 hitters better than .230 hitters. Donaldson #4, because he means so much to the team due to his contract. Jeffers #5 since Garver is a mystery at this point and catcher is such an important position. I'd round out my top 10 with Buxton, Polanco, Pineda, Kirilloff and Sano. Only reason why I'm including Kirilloff is because I fully expect him to fill Rosario's shoes in LF. I can't place Lewis or Larnach in the top 10 when we don't even know if they will be on the big league club in 2021. This is about 2021 right?

 

I went back and forth on Berrios and Kepler. They are the stable rocks of the lineup and pitching staff, and you laid out a good argument. Ultimately, this was the reasoning that steered me to put Kepler in front:

 

 

• He's owed $21.75 million through 2023, which might be the cost of Berrios in 2023 alone. (If they can keep him around via QO or extension.)
• Kepler can play a solid CF which is essential given the Buxton situation. He's the only player in the corner OF mix right now with that capability. It's a big differentiating factor. If Buxton goes down, Kepler gives them the ability to go Kirilloff-Kep-Larnach. (Or Rooker or whichever of the many good corner OF options you like.)
• I mean, the Twins control Kepler for his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, for 20 million bucks total. That contract is crazy. I realize this one's a repeat.

 

The team option at $10M for his age 31 season has value as well.

Berrios is a 27-year-old #3 or #4 starter.

Hot Take Here! Get You're Hot Take!

Berrios ranks 21st among pitchers with at least 150 IP between 2019-2020 in FWAR.  While's he isn't an Ace, he's also among the top 30 pitchers in baseball.  You don't get there by being a #4 pitcher.  He's a borderline #1-2, which is exactly as he's described.

WAR might be flawed, but it isn't that flawed.

*Takes a bow*

"Thank you! Thank you very much! I'd like to thank my family, friends, parents and the good Lord above for which none of this would otherwise be possible!"

In all seriousness though I must confess I worked off of Aaron's list he posted and made adjustments based on how I would value them. The last 5 were definitely the hardest but I feel pretty good about my picks.

Cheers Nick!

Thanks for the work put into this. I would have to disagree with some of the placings though. IMO Maeda and Berrios would have to be #1 and #2. I fully and wholeheartedly disagree with Kepler at #3. He's a career .237 hitting corner outfielder. So what if he can play CF as a backup. I think you value that aspect way too much. A defensive upgrade on the bench to cover CF such as a Pillar is easily attainable. I suspect/expect the hitting of Kirilloff and Larnach (when given the chance) will make us forget Kepler. Sorry, I just don't understand the love for a .237 hitter. I would put Arraez at #3. I like .330 hitters better than .230 hitters. Donaldson #4, because he means so much to the team due to his contract. Jeffers #5 since Garver is a mystery at this point and catcher is such an important position. I'd round out my top 10 with Buxton, Polanco, Pineda, Kirilloff and Sano. Only reason why I'm including Kirilloff is because I fully expect him to fill Rosario's shoes in LF. I can't place Lewis or Larnach in the top 10 when we don't even know if they will be on the big league club in 2021. This is about 2021 right?

No, this isn't about 2021, though that's a huge part of it.

From Nick's intro:

"The idea is to assess players' importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins."

 

At this point Kepler is probably Minnesota's sturdiest building block.

Probably in nitpicky territory but when I think sturdiest of building blocks, I think Arraez. He's got such a great approach to the plate that I think most teams in the league would ask for him in trade package. But I'd also put Kepler at #2 due to what he achieved in 19 and his defensive abilities.

Lastly, have you seen Royce's smile? Maybe I'm delirious from the vaccine #2 but that grin alone is top 3 by any metric.

Agree with the list, but I absolutely hate this sentiment that Alex Kiriloff wont be up until May and were ok with it.  If he's the best option in a playoff elimination game, than he's the best option to win games in April.  If we want him around in 2027 than pay him what he'll be worth.  

Agreed, service manipulation is such a joke. Invest in players and they might stick around for a bit longer than they have to.

Do you really think Maeda is going to pitch as well as he did last year for a whole season? It seems most are just assuming 2020 is what he will be from here on out, when, so far, it is a bit of an outlier. If this team is going be a World Series Team, the pitching better be a lot better than it is now. Or was last year. 

Hot Take Here! Get You're Hot Take!

 

Berrios ranks 21st among pitchers with at least 150 IP between 2019-2020 in FWAR.  While's he isn't an Ace, he's also among the top 30 pitchers in baseball.  You don't get there by being a #4 pitcher.  He's a borderline #1-2, which is exactly as he's described.

 

WAR might be flawed, but it isn't that flawed.

With 30 teams top 30 equals #1 starter. There are only a half dozen Aces® at any time. Twins fans get caught up in the fact the Berrios hasn't made the leap to ace, which I think clouds their ability to see that he already is elite. Maeda, Berrios? You could argue that we already have 2 #1's. Add in Pineda and (I hope) Odo? Nothing to see here time to worry about the lineup.

In the Athletic today they asked teams about underrated prospects - this was the Twins entry.

Matt Canterino, RHP
Age: 23 B: L T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 223

Scouting grades:
FB: 55 SLI: 65 CB: 55 CH: 45 CTL: 55 CMND: 50

Canterino was the Twins’ second-round pick (54th overall) out of Rice University in 2019. Canterino has the full arsenal of four major-league pitches with a fastball in the mid-90s coming from a deceptive angle that results in above-average life. He throws an above-average 12-6 curveball and a four-seam fastball, and his slider is a wipeout pitch when it’s working. He throws a decent change to left-handed hitters, but it could be softer with better fade. His delivery has effort but actually benefits him in terms of deception and timing issues to opposing batters. He’ll be in the middle of the Twins’ rotation sooner rather than later.

In the Athletic today they asked teams about underrated prospects - this was the Twins entry.

 

Matt Canterino, RHP
Age: 23 B: L T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 223

 

 

Scouting grades:
FB: 55 SLI: 65 CB: 55 CH: 45 CTL: 55 CMND: 50

 

 

Canterino was the Twins’ second-round pick (54th overall) out of Rice University in 2019. Canterino has the full arsenal of four major-league pitches with a fastball in the mid-90s coming from a deceptive angle that results in above-average life. He throws an above-average 12-6 curveball and a four-seam fastball, and his slider is a wipeout pitch when it’s working. He throws a decent change to left-handed hitters, but it could be softer with better fade. His delivery has effort but actually benefits him in terms of deception and timing issues to opposing batters. He’ll be in the middle of the Twins’ rotation sooner rather than later.

Thanks for this info. This is encouraging. There has been crumbs of info suggesting Canterino's stuff  improved during the Covid break. It would really help the cause if a SP prospect or two stepped up to join Balazovic and Duran as high ceiling prospects.