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  • Time To Take Twins Seriously?


    Ted Schwerzler

    Now into the second month of the 2015 major league baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have just under 30 games under their belt. Looking at the landscape of the season that is to come, they've completed roughly one-fifth of their slate, and played through the month of April against foes coming largely from the AL Central. At 15-13 as of May 6, and just 2.5 games out of first in the Central Division, things are in a good place. Now the question is, should we take this Twins team seriously?

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    After starting 1-6 through on the season, and seeing plenty of misguided "the sky is falling" type comments, the Twins have turned it around big time. Winners of 11 of 16 games at home, they currently own the best home record in the America League. After being -20 early in the season in the run differential category, Minnesota is now +12 in that department (trailing only the Royals, Yankees and Astros). With plenty of time left until the heat of the summer, Minnesota has plenty of time to continue to shape their 2015 narrative.

    Taking a look at previous opening day Twins rosters (check them out here at Twinkie Town, Jesse does a great job with these), there had been a looming cloud for the past four seasons. With plenty of areas for concern, and few alternative options, the question was always when would the bottom fall out. Last season, the Twins hung around longer than expected, and even made the move to add Kendrys Morales to the lineup. The eventual result in recent seasons has always been a late summer slide that has turned into uninspired September baseball. With Paul Molitor in his first season, this club looks poised to turn the corner.

    Arguably one of the worst lineups the Twins have put on the field during 2015, Molitor went with Eduardo Escobar, Chris Herrmann, and Shane Robinson as his 5-7 hitters against the Athletics last night. While Herrmann went hitless, Escobar paced the lineup, and the team hung a 13 spot on Oakland. Although that's obviously an isolated example, the fact of the matter is that this team has battled in the early going, and has found ways to get it done.

    When the summer months roll around, and this team is looking for an added jolt, there doesn't seem to be a point where the bottom should drop out. Guys like Herrmann, Eduardo Nunez, Jordan Schafer, and Shane Robinson are all replaceable from within the organization, and their eventual removal should be a net positive. Getting a hot-hitting Josmil Pinto, Aaron Hicks, or even Byron Buxton into the lineup should only give the Twins a better chance on a nightly basis.

    With the lineup producing where it is, it might be best to remember that everything begins and ends with pitching. Sure, the Twins haven't lit the world on fire, but Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson have all been nice surprises in the early going. If this club can continue to pitch at a respectable level, they should expect to be in games on a night basis.

    There's no doubt the AL Central will continue to be one of the toughest divisions throughout the remainder of the season. I find it hard to believe that the White Sox and Indians will continue to be as bad as they have been, as well as believing the Royals and Tigers won't be as good as they have started. If Minnesota can continue to stay even-keeled, there's no doubt they'll be in a position to make some waves come September.

    It's early, but it's time to stop comparing this team to the poor teams that have come before it. This roster is cut from a different cloth, and the performance has warranted a new tide of optimism. There's no doubt this Twins team is capable of continuing to make believers out of people.

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    Like most commenters have mentioned I am really enjoying this current string of good baseball by the Twins. Are we contenders yet? Too early to tell. But some promising trends so far: we have a 12-11 record so far in the AL Central. I'm too lazy (and a few drinks too far) on looking up stats, but it seemed like we were getting crushed by teams in our own division the last couple of years. We've also been winning against bad teams so far, which I hope continues the rest of the way.

     

    I think 3rd place in the Central is certainly possible this year as the White Sox took over as the division's dumpster fire, and the Indians SP has regressed; specifically Kluber. If we are within 10 games from a WC or division crown in mid-July, who will be our Shannon Stewart circa 2003 that brings us over the hump and back into the playoffs?

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    I thought going into the season that the Twins were a 75 to maybe 80 win team that began transitioning into a playoff contender.  After the slow start I thought they were headed towards another top 5 pick.  now I think they are back to being the 75-80 win team.  I would consider the season to be very successful if they ended up .500 and several young players began stepping up and showing that they would be average or better players in the future.

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    The Twins offense is 19th in OPS and 6th in runs scored while the pitching is 13th in ERA and 19th in OPS against.  It's nice to see that they are better than their 1-6 start but I don't see how they can continue to play at their current level.  But I sure hope they do!

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    I don't think you can take any team too seriously until June, much like you can't take a players performance too seriously until then.  The number one factor on how the season will play out is injuries as it always is. 

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    I don't think you can take any team too seriously until June, much like you can't take a players performance too seriously until then.  The number one factor on how the season will play out is injuries as it always is.

     

    what is encouraging about this season, more than previous, is this team can improve with several positions were injuries to occur. Last year it was Logan Darnell to get the next call up to the big league rotation. This year it's Meyer who's next in line with Milone as the fallback. With May already up, and Gibson establishing himself, that's a great step. Is Meyer absolutely going to improve this rotation were Pelf or Nolasco get injured? Not necessarily, but way more likely than Darnell, Johnson, or Milone.
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    They have started to catch the attention of the  national media:

    Jim Caple story on Molitor:  http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12839409/minnesota-twins-paul-molitor-enjoying-view-dugout

     

    CBS sports:  http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12839409/minnesota-twins-paul-molitor-enjoying-view-dugout

     

    SportsTalkFlorida has them at 8th in their power rankings:  http://www.sportstalkflorida.com/mlb-power-rankings-may-madness/

     

    Heady Territory.  Let's hope they stay there.

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    I'm enjoying the winning, as others have said. That being said though, I think the Twins were only 4 games or so below .500 in late June last year (June 25th or so). So, I'll keep enjoying the winning while it's happening, but I'm not going to start taking it seriously until they are around .500 after 105-115 games. At least that will be improvement, contenders or not.

    Edited by Twins33
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    So, after last night's exhilarating win, the Twins improved their record to a surprising 19-15, four games above .500.  Before the season, I compared this squad with the 1991 club that went "worst to first" mostly because I believed this team was not as far away from competing as many believed.  Anyway, on this day, in 1991 the Twins defeated the Milwaukee Brewers to improve to 17-15.  The Twns got a strong pitching performance from Jack Morris and a big home run from Chili Davis.  Mollie must have had a tough time picking up that splitter as he went 0-4 with 2K's against the Big Horse.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN199105140.shtml  

     

    Our pace is similar to the '91 team. We just need a 15 game winning streak.  On paper, their roster is better than ours.  But we are much younger, so I can't say our team is necessarily less talented.  That said, I think our rotation can be as good as theirs once healthy.  We need some guys to break out and have career years.  And we need a rookie to break out like Knobby.  Not particularly likely, but it's fun to compare and imagine.

     

    Also, our bull pen needs to continue to get outs.  I'm still not sure how Boyer's is doing it.  His peripherals are all around his career avg. (according to fangraphs he has a career BABIP of over .300, either lots of hard contact or a lifetime of unlucky).  His K/9 is around half his career avg. so perhaps his success is sustainable, or perhaps he's lost his marginal ability to miss bats, which isn't good considering the career BABIP.  Here's hoping it's the former.  His stuff looks nice, he's been a pleasant surprise so far, and it's hard not to cheer for a guy like this: http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/124187556/pitcher-blaine-boyer-finds-groove-as-twins-heat-up

     

     

     

     

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    Our pace is similar to the '91 team. We just need a 15 game winning streak.  On paper, their roster is better than ours.  But we are much younger, so I can't say our team is necessarily less talented.

    Average ages, according to B-Ref

     

    2015 Batters: 28.9

    1991 Batters: 29.1

     

    2015 Pitchers: 29.2

    1991 Pitchers: 28.6

     

    I will second your endorsement of a 15 game winning streak, however.  I'd even settle for 14 games.  :)

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