Time for a Challenge? Revisiting 6 Twins Challenge Trades

Thanks, my Twins PTSD just flared up again. John Ryan Murphy. In related news what's the over/under on the number of games Hicks plays this year? I feel for that guy.

That was an excellent review.  I enjoyed the memories and some real disappointments.  Getting J J Hardy was excellent, too bad we did not keep him.   Perhaps you did not want to add to the woe, but this headline from Twinkie Town captures the essence of the follow up trade: "It's Official: Twins Trade J.J. Hardy, Brendan Harris, $500,000 to Orioles for Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobson"  Boy was that some trade! 

Then there is Brunansky for Tommy Herr - boy did that salvage the Twins Clubhouse and fan love!

Puckett's Pond covered this one - "Minnesota Twins trade 1B Pat Crosby (minors) and 2B Tim Teufel (7.4 WAR) to the New York Mets for OF Billy Beane (-0.8 WAR), P Joe Klink (-0.3 WAR), and P Bill Latham (-0.3 WAR)."  Teufel goes to the WS with the Mets and we did not even offer Billy Beane a front office job.

Of course there is the trade of Rod Carew due to the racist big mouth of Calvin Griffith! 

Then of course we made the trade of Pressly to Houston and we are still waiting on the return tally while Pressly has gone to the WS.

The early trades made a lot of sense, good players overall nearing end of team control to get younger team control guys at areas of need.  Then when Bill Smith took over things went down hill quickly.  He was the type of GM that made trades to just do it without much direction.  Swapping young team controlled guys for other young team controlled guys, but he pulled in a hit first corner OF prospect, which are easy to find, for pitching and SS, which are hard to find.  Then he at least brought in a good defending SS but had to give up decent CF, not a bad move, except for following it up with the terrible trade of the SS for two bullpen pitching prospects UGH.  Bill Smith had some of the worst trades in Twins history.  Every GM will have some bad trades, but Smith was so bad.  I will say he did a good job of some drafts and bringing in some good international guys over his short time as GM.  

I personally am a huge fan of trading guys ending of team control for young team controlled MLB ready guys.  I would never trade away prospects for hit first OF/1b guys.  You can find them so often for cheap in FA market.  Look at what Rays do, they continue to trade away guys near end of their team control years, normally 1 or 2 years left for young controlled prospects.  They rarely miss when they send a guy away or let him walk.  Sure, a few have had decent careers after leaving Rays, but not many.  

If you cannot sign Buck long term, you have to figure you can get more in a trade for him than in what ever you get from someone else signing him as a FA, assuming new CBA will still have FA walking comp. 

Thanks Tom for your article. There is no doubt in my mind that we should. But our trades should be well calculated, meaning #1 we need to trade from our fat, not muscle. Meaning we trade some one where we can easily substitute with a capable replacement, not a player where we have no one that comes close to replace him. #2  we need to intelligently evaluate our talent and the talent of player of intent.

Example of fat, we have an over abundance at the less demanding corner/ DH positions so we have many options there that we can choose from and right now we have quite a few good pitching prospects which we could spare a couple, we also have good depth at catching.                                                                                                                           Example of muscle, you gave some, Hicks, we had nobody to replace him and Span/ Revere, one maybe but not both leaving a void. NO! CF is a very critical position where you need depth not a void. SS is also a critical position and right now we have a void at SS that needs to be filled, Our future SS Lewis we need to  step up some day, he's our only hope to fill that important position so I wouldn't trade him. CF we've had a great void at Buxton's sub for years. Our future sub and CF is Celestino. If we trade Buxton that would absolutely create such a unbelievably great void in the whole OF. I wouldn't trade Celestino or Kepler unless in Kepler's case only if we could in junction w/ other players get a great pitcher.

Intelligently evaluating our talent and the talent of player of intent. Here I have some doubt with our FO ability to do so. Thinking that Cave is a capable sub for Buxton, is a major misevaluation, if he couldn't eye it he only needed to look at how many games we lost while he was there. I really don't even trust them to be able to cull down from our 40 man efficiently let alone pull off a big trade. In the Maeda/ Graterol trade, the Dodgers came to them and our FO enter that negotiations ignorantly, they could've gotten a much better deal. My impression is that they are uncomfortable initiating big trades, sending out the message "There's no trades out there".   In the lesser Odorizzi trade, I don't know who approached who. I'd give them the benefit of the doubt with hope that they can pull off finally that big trade that we desperately need correctly.

If it wasn't for the July 31st trade deadline and its timing, most of these trades would not have happened. In the "hot stove league" these trades of desperation -- i.e. for an immediate need to win a championship....are not made. In the off season, teams are more deliberate and thoughtful, cautious even, in making trades. Therefore, teams like the Twins don't see offers of high level prospects for plug-in major league rental talent.

I'm probably wrong, cheap owners will always find creative ways to dump high salaries. 

So manmy trades because we had someone newer, probably better, and much cheaper coming to take the place of a player (shades of Doug Mientkiewicz in a mid-season three team trade, too). Of course, that is not across the board, as the Twins traded Garza, a highly touted draft pick for another draft pick, both with issues that most front offices hate to deal with.

But keeping in this spirit, the Twins should definitely trade the now getting expensive Buxton because they can put Celestino in centerfield. And next year flip the now aging Celestino because you have to get the cheaper and more promising Martin or Lewis in the everyday lineup.

Good stuff as always, Tom. The Hicks trade was embarrassingly bad, and rightfully helped to end Ryan's second run as GM. The Yankees saw us coming on that one, as they say. Yuck.

Trading Buxton will likely be the defining moment for this FO, and it may take years to assess the outcome. Will it make the team stronger, exchanging an injury-prone CF for hot prospects and durable MLB-ready talent. Or will we watch Buxton finally set the league on fire for a new team while our meager returns fizzle away, Murphy-style?

For the record, I don't want to see Buxton traded. I'd much rather look back on an interesting Kepler, Arraez, Rooker or Sano trade. But this FO has already totally fumbled the contract extension talks, so once the new CBA is set, I fully expect Buxton to be moved. If so, they better get it right - their legacy here absolutely depends on it.

Thanks for the article Tom I really enjoyed it. Really drives home the point that trades like this can really be impactful good or bad.