Three-Bagger: Darvish Meeting, Sano Fallout, Ice Cold Stove

Would love to see the Twins sign Darvish. With Big Erv and Yu at the top of the rotation, who needs a bullpen anyway!?!?

Not real optimistic on Darvish.

 

This is one of those "I'll believe it when Insee it" things. There is nothing outside of hope to indicate that the Twins would the commit the resources necessary to sign him, or any other high-impact free agent.

 

This feels like a minority opinion, but...I hope they don't sign Darvish.  At least not for the money he's going to get.  My opposition is about the qualities needed in a #1 starter; he doesn't have it, even if his numbers suggest it.  #1 starters need to have ... swagger, steel nerves, leadership qualities, something besides great stuff. If the Twins are going to commit huge dollars to a pitcher, it should be someone they feel can be a #1 starter, with all that goes with it.  I just don't think Darvish is that.  Rather they keep their powder dry and look to spend that money later on someone who has the potential to be The Guy on a championship team.

  Your thoughts?

Darvish may not be an ace, but he'd probably be as close as the Twins are ever going to sign in free agency. There is a 0% chance we're going to land Kershaw next year in free agency and then the next best potential options in 2018 are David Price and Gio Gonzalez and I certainly don't consider either of them aces either. Kershaw is also likely to make 1.5x as much as Darvish, so it isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison of "huge dollars". For the price of a true ace like that in FA, you're talking about paying as much as it'd cost to sign Darvish and some additional quality players.

 

Beyond that, your FA options are limited. Real aces don't make it to free agency all the time and when they do, everyone wants them. And when it comes to a pure money bidding war on someone like Kershaw, we aren't going to win. Thats the unfortunate truth of the situation. If we want good pitching we're either going to have to sign high end, non-ace guys like Darvish or we're going to have to trade the farm, because we're certainly not doing a very good job of developing any ourselves.

I don't believe Sano is going anywhere. I doubt there is a suspension, (small if there is one), due to time, no charges filed, lack of evidence. I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins mandated some sort of counseling, however. Can they do that?

 

Considering how well the team played without him last season, with such a high ceiling OF, a quality INF with Escobar able to handle 3B OK, Gordon on the way, it might be the question, however, what could the Twins receive back for someone like Sano?

 

Theoretically speaking.

 

This feels like a minority opinion, but...I hope they don't sign Darvish.  At least not for the money he's going to get.  My opposition is about the qualities needed in a #1 starter; he doesn't have it, even if his numbers suggest it.  #1 starters need to have ... swagger, steel nerves, leadership qualities, something besides great stuff. If the Twins are going to commit huge dollars to a pitcher, it should be someone they feel can be a #1 starter, with all that goes with it.  I just don't think Darvish is that.  Rather they keep their powder dry and look to spend that money later on someone who has the potential to be The Guy on a championship team.

  Your thoughts?

Santana has two years in a row of better run prevention than Darvish and is not considered an ace by many.   Berrios was almost identical to Darvish last year and my favorite target from the get go, Cobb, was better last year.   I think Darvish is the most likely to have the best season of the 4 but I wouldn't take the odds of him against the field and that is just one season.    I don't get too hung up on the term ace.   If I felt good that he could give us 6  years of 3.5 ERA I would say fine.   I really don't feel the overpay for the over years is worth the risk but I won't criticize the Twins if they go for it.

BTW, you might be in the minority now, (though not the lone voice), but watch if Darvish is signed and blows out his arm in the 2nd game.    Posts will be filled with people saying they were against it from the start.

 

If more than one big-market team felt their forecast on any pitcher was solid enough to predict this, the six-year $160M contract that MLBTR predicted for Darvish back in November would get obliterated.

 

It's hard to keep up with how rapidly the price has gone up for players who control their own destiny. An ERA you mentioned would be something like 3-4 WAR if at a starter's full workload. Estimates of the going rate in free agency have been in the neighborhood of $10M per WAR lately. And six years of solid performance like that, regardless of the pitcher's age, is a whale of a long time. $200M would probably be a cheap outcome for the team that wins the bidding.

 

MLB is raking in the dough. Top players are getting their cut.

 

If Darvish does go for the mid-$100M range, it won't be with the performance expectation you laid out.

Man, that is crazy.    3.5 isn't even what most on here consider ace production.  Confident is still not a guarantee.   There is still risk and I am not confident.     Would be nice to see a guy confident enough to say pay me minimum and add 10 mil for every 1 WAR.    No one will do it but if Dozier had on his last contract he would have made out well.       

This feels like a minority opinion, but...I hope they don't sign Darvish. At least not for the money he's going to get. My opposition is about the qualities needed in a #1 starter; he doesn't have it, even if his numbers suggest it. #1 starters need to have ... swagger, steel nerves, leadership qualities, something besides great stuff. If the Twins are going to commit huge dollars to a pitcher, it should be someone they feel can be a #1 starter, with all that goes with it. I just don't think Darvish is that. Rather they keep their powder dry and look to spend that money later on someone who has the potential to be The Guy on a championship team.

Your thoughts?

I understand the reluctance due to the money likely involved. However, I'd much rather the Twins sign a free agent then trade multiple top prospects at this juncture for one starter. They could sign Darvish and get halfway through the season and then decide they need something else to push themselves over the top. Having those chips still will give them flexibility in case they feel they need one more piece such as another starter or closer. I would rather hang onto Gordon, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Romero, Lewis, etc. at this point.

 

Paying 6 or 7 years 150+ million for Darvish does not scare me so much due to the fact that so much is coming off the payroll in 2019. The Twins have the flexibility. However, i wouldn't be opposed to having Lynn and or Cobb as an alternative to going all in on Darvish.

 

Darvish

Santana

Berrios

Gibson

Meija, Gonsalves, May

 

or

 

Lynn

Santana

Berrios

Gibson

Meija, Gonsalves, May

Edited January 7, 2018 by laloesch

I don't think it's realistic to have the annual amounts drop off quite like that. I do think it's possible a player would accept a slightly deferred signing bonus. Something like:

 

- $20 million per year salary for 6 years

- $40 million signing bonus payable in years 2-4 (say 15/15/10)

I believe it's pure fantasy to think the Twins will ever sign Darvish.

So, regarding the “ice cold” hot stove. Anyone hearing the “C” word? As in “ Collusion”?

This would be my dream scenerio:

 

Sign Darvish for 3 years/100

Trade Gordon/Granite/Jay/Wade for Cole

 

Darvish

Cole

Santana

Berrios

Mejia/Gonsalves

Collusion how exactly? Do you think there is something more going on in why there hasn’t been as much movement yet?

It’s happened before. The most recent time the owners were caught attempting to restrict player movement, the result was Jack Morris coming to the Twins.

 

Do I know it is happening now? Of curse not. Just wondering if there are any rumblings about it, from agents or the MLBPA.