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  • The Twins Skimping on Correa Presents More Questions Than Answers


    Ted Schwerzler

    From the moment that the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa last spring, they knew it was a one-year deal. For them to extend him on a long-term contract more negotiations were going to need to take place, but unfortunately, they fell short of pushing to a point where it mattered.

     

    Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

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    Last offseason, Scott Boras approached the Minnesota Twins with a creative idea. For as much as Derek Falvey and Thad Levine suggest a willingness to find interesting ways to get deals done, this was Carlos Correa’s agent throwing the Twins a bone. Despite never before being able to play on the playground with the big kids, Correa was open to a one-year deal that provided him some assurances. He was going to best Anthony Rendon’s previous infield-best contract by average annual value, and he had a fallback option should the year go poorly.

    Early on in the season I talked with a front office source that signified an unlikeliness that the Twins could keep Correa around. It was known this was a one-year deal, and given the number of $280 million as a cap for where they’d present an offer, nothing more seemed likely. Then the offseason came.

    Minnesota operated in a way that watched as pitchers and position players went off the board. They stayed out of other happenings while focusing their dollars on Correa. The problem is that the offer was never raised until the final moment, and even then, by just $5 million. The Twins didn’t view the Giants as the threat they were, thinking their offer was closer to $300 million. Following a counter from Boras and Correa of 13 years and $360 million, it hit Minnesota smack in the face. They were never close.

    It doesn’t matter whether the Chicago Cubs or New York Yankees were ever interested. Steve Cohen even flew Correa out to New York simply to give him $300 million reasons to consider the Mets. The Giants could’ve waited until the last moment to hit Aaron Judge money, but the reality is that they still did so. With the Twins never surpassing the $300 million mark, they were never truly going to be in the running, and ultimately they came up $65 million short.

    Splitting the difference suggests that the Twins were unwilling to go an additional three years and $65 million. That amount is less than $22 million per season, and could be negligible by the time they’d ever have had to pay Correa those dollars. In an industry surpassing $11 billion this past season, Minnesota had their one chance to overcome a label of being cheap or failing to spend, and they failed to make the discussion interesting.

    It’s odd to think that the front office would see a willingness to pay Correa $28.5 million at age 38, but the hard and fast lunacy set in for years 39-41. The reality is that most shortstops start to hit a cliff somewhere in their mid-30’s. Correa isn’t likely to reinvent that wheel, and the back half of that deal was never going to go well. Suggesting they were fine with it, but stopping short of making an offer he’d consider, is an odd stance to take.

    Maybe even worse, as Correa’s medicals fell apart and caused a change of course, the Twins weren’t considered again. Boras went to the last minute Mets and worked out a 12 year deal for $315 million. That’s only $15 million per year extra, and two years beyond where the Twins were. Minnesota’s unwillingness to move into a realm that the shortstop would consider left them in the cold a second time.

    All of 2022, fans heard about how much Correa and his family liked Minnesota and the Twins Cities. When Byron Buxton was unveiling Minnesota’s new uniforms he talked of his former teammate and noted a desire to have him back. Now the front office has their $100 million man without the guy that he publicly suggested needing to be here.

    As things stand currently, Kyle Farmer is set to be Minnesota’s Opening Day shortstop, The revolving door at the position continues, and Farmer couldn’t be further from what Rocco Baldelli opened with last season. Royce Lewis isn’t going to be back until mid-summer at the earliest, and he’s coming off a second torn ACL. Prospect Brooks Lee looks the part of a big leaguer, but he’s thought to be moved off of shortstop at some point. Austin Martin has already transitioned from shortstop, and neither Nick Gordon or Jorge Polanco are going back.

    Baseball has key positions up the middle, and at the one opportunity Minnesota may ever have to lock down the role for a decade, they chose to value pennies on the dollar and cause themselves to again never be taken seriously. Correa may have moved on Minnesota’s contract had nothing else showed up, but the reality is that was never going to be the case, and now the Twins are left trying to figure it out once again.

     

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    9/300 This would have shown they were serious bidders/players in the game. We also would not have been paying him for 13 years, which is the complaint of many. He would have been 36 in the final season. I get the AAV would have been higher, but you can't have everything.

    Whatever. No elite players are coming to MN.

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    2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    By the last three years, you are giving up an average free agent to get an elite player in his prime. I'd do that all day 

    Anyone would do that deal, but how many years of dead money are you willing to accept? How many big, long -term, mega-deals can you think of where the recipient played at an all-star level for at least half the contract? Scherzer and A-Rod are the only two that come to mind. In most of those deals the team only gets 3 or 4 years of all-star caliber play.   Pujols, Cabrera, Cano, Stanton, Tatis Jr??...

    If you're concerned about getting more money to the players there are more equitable ways of doing it, like increasing the minimum salary or finding better ways to get money to the younger players, who in my opinion are way under paid.

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    2 quick observations:

    1) In hindsight, I wish the Twins had never signed Correa for the single year.  He was never going to re-sign with Minnesota, the Twins took on all the risk of major injury, and he used that year to get a huge contract with another team.

    2) Even if the Twins had re-signed Correa, they were going nowhere unless a number of their young players returned to health and/or blossomed in 2023.  If they do, the Twins will be good without Correa and can look to add as necessary at the trade deadline. If not, we don't have 10-13 years of huge contract to complain about.

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    1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

    They were bidding against themselves at that point. After the Giants offer, going to $300 MM makes no sense. The Mets knew what the Twins offer was, so they went $315MM. Going to $300 MM still wouldn't get it done, if Boras even called them for an offer. The Mets, being the Mets, would have just beat that offer anyway. Spin it anyway you want, this was a Lose-Lose situation for the Twins.

    Starting with 300M, made way more sense than what they did. Correct, don’t bid against yourself, but then if you were never prepared to offer more and actually compete for a guy you knew was going to get offers in excess of $300m, they shouldn’t have fiddled around to begin with.

    this FO beat themselves by failing to improve the roster in free agency that they actually had the resources to compete with. They went all-in and single-mindedly focused on a guy they had no chance to sign while letting the Free Agents they actually had a shot with, go elsewhere.

    They made this a lose-lose situation for themselves. If their 285m offer was everything they could offer, and had no more room in the budget for anything else, then they’re really, super-incompetent. If 285 was all they were going to offer to begin with, had room in the budget for other players, but ignored those needs to focus on Correa, they’re naive and incompetent.

    I have been a staunch supporter of this FO, but they apparently learned nothing last year about multi-tasking and flexibility.

     

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    6 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    Starting with 300M, made way more sense than what they did. Correct, don’t bid against yourself, but then if you were never prepared to offer more and actually compete for a guy you knew was going to get offers in excess of $300m, they shouldn’t have fiddled around to begin with.

    this FO beat themselves by failing to improve the roster in free agency that they actually had the resources to compete with. They went all-in and single-mindedly focused on a guy they had no chance to sign while letting the Free Agents they actually had a shot with, go elsewhere.

    They made this a lose-lose situation for themselves. If their 285m offer was everything they could offer, and had no more room in the budget for anything else, then they’re really, super-incompetent. If 285 was all they were going to offer to begin with, had room in the budget for other players, but ignored those needs to focus on Correa, they’re naive and incompetent.

    I have been a staunch supporter of this FO, but they apparently learned nothing last year about multi-tasking and flexibility.

     

    They signed Vazquez (a better signing than Contreras IMO) and they were tied to both Rodon and  Swanson. Which of those contracts did you want them to best?? I don't think either ages well. Spending money just to spend money is foolish. 

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    When Turner signed for 11/300 there was no choice but to up the offer, even if they would have been "bidding against themselves". Either be prepared to go higher than 10/285 or they should have never been playing in the deep end of the pool from the beginning. 

    FWIW I'm not upset about not getting Correa, but the fact is they have played this off season very very poorly. Couldn't do much worse.

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    An 8/$306 offer should have been the first and last offer IF the Twins actually wanted to sign Carlos Correa. This determination should have been made by the end of the All Star Break last July. Otherwise, the Twins should have found a great deal to unload Correa for a top prospect. The ability to look around, be aware, and think forward is based on experience. The Twins leadership team are struggling right now.

    I'm curious if a trade with Miami was contingent on the Twins signing Correa because it would free the team from counting on a few of their prospects. The lack of awareness within the front office was displayed most clearly by Dave St. Peter in his comments just after the season ended. 

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    40 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

    2 quick observations:

    1) In hindsight, I wish the Twins had never signed Correa for the single year.  He was never going to re-sign with Minnesota, the Twins took on all the risk of major injury, and he used that year to get a huge contract with another team.

    I wouldn't go that far. We all knew this was going to be a one-year make good deal. We got a great player with comparatively little downside financial risk. Yeah, he could have suffered a catastrophic injury, but the Twins would have "only" had to absorb another $70 million at a time when they had the payroll space to do so. 

    I'm not sorry we got his talents for a year. Do I think the Twins should give him $300 million for ten years??......No.

     

     

     

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    13 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

    They signed Vazquez (a better signing than Contreras IMO) and they were tied to both Rodon and  Swanson. Which of those contracts did you want them to best?? I don't think either ages well. Spending money just to spend money is foolish. 

     who cares if spending 11m fixes 4th/5th outfielder? Speaking of foolish spending… they still need a RH hitter in the outfield.

    they still need hitters (plural). Farmer is a huge step down from Correa, Vazquez is fine hitter for a catcher,

    While this team may have the best (when healthy) 2-5 rotation, Sonny Gray is not the guy I want starting WS game 1.

    as things sit today, this team is worse than the team that went 78-84 with all the same injury questions.

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    As baseball fans in markets like ours, aren't we so glad that we get to play in the deep end of the kiddie pool???  Alas, our Mother (FO) forgot to bring any toys, so we're left having to dive for pennies.

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    Can we ever quit discussing Correa?  People talk like he was a Twins institution for many years and not the opportunistic bag of wind he proved himself to be.  He and Boras used the Twins and us fans since day one.  We all knew this and we played his con of how much he wanted to play here right to the hilt.  I can understand us gullible fans and public buying into being played.  But the FO should be ashamed at how they handled it.  It's time to move on from Correa.  If the Twins have another poor season it will be time to consider a new FO.  Unless of course they can keep conning the fans into thinking they are good.

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    4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    This article feels like trolling... Assumptions everywhere that the Twins did nothing and watched the world go by while praying to the church of Correa.

    Salary was not the ultimate hurdle in Correa going to the Mets.  He went to the Mets to play in a bigger market with more revenue opportunities and to play on a team that has a very strong chance to win for years to come.

    Nowhere has there been any comments made that even if the Twins had matched the insane Giants offer, that he would choose MN.  The same can be said about his deal with the Mets.

    We seriously need to stop putting the lack of Correa coming here squarely on the shoulders of the FO.  Sure, the FO decisions may be part of it, but stop this "failure" blame game.

    2 years 30m seems like a significant delta

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    2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

    Anyone would do that deal, but how many years of dead money are you willing to accept? How many big, long -term, mega-deals can you think of where the recipient played at an all-star level for at least half the contract? Scherzer and A-Rod are the only two that come to mind. In most of those deals the team only gets 3 or 4 years of all-star caliber play.   Pujols, Cabrera, Cano, Stanton, Tatis Jr??...

    If you're concerned about getting more money to the players there are more equitable ways of doing it, like increasing the minimum salary or finding better ways to get money to the younger players, who in my opinion are way under paid.

    You either sign an elite player, or several not so great players.....They are literally signing Joey Gallo to 11 MM for one year. One year. How that fixes anything, I have no idea. Again, the dead money isn't an issue, that's all about spreading out the pain. You are giving up one average FA for three years. I'm willing to do that to get an elite player (which they passed on last year and this year, and will likely again next year - they don't even sign the next tier down either).

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    1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

    They signed Vazquez (a better signing than Contreras IMO) and they were tied to both Rodon and  Swanson. Which of those contracts did you want them to best?? I don't think either ages well. Spending money just to spend money is foolish. 

    They also didn't sign any of the top FA starting pitchers last year, in a record year for that opportunity. Nor did they sign one this year. Not spending money just puts it in the owner's pocket. They have one long term deal for real money, and they traded that guy after two years. In the history of the team.

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    1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

    An 8/$306 offer should have been the first and last offer IF the Twins actually wanted to sign Carlos Correa. This determination should have been made by the end of the All Star Break last July. Otherwise, the Twins should have found a great deal to unload Correa for a top prospect. The ability to look around, be aware, and think forward is based on experience. The Twins leadership team are struggling right now.

    I'm curious if a trade with Miami was contingent on the Twins signing Correa because it would free the team from counting on a few of their prospects. The lack of awareness within the front office was displayed most clearly by Dave St. Peter in his comments just after the season ended. 

    Trading Correa would have been fine if we weren't contending. We were in first place. You can't trade him in that case. It's not worth alienating the fan base and the clubhouse to net one nice prospect, and that's all he'd have gotten you.

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    I've been trying to monitor the reporting all day on this, so it's possible I've missed something, but I am surprised by the conviction a lot of people have around presuming to know what happened here. There's a pretty real chance that Correa has a significant medical risk that we will never know about (nor should we). For the time being, until further reporting or leaks, it seems worth considering that whatever it is...

    1. It was enough for the Giants, under significant pressure with their fanbase, to walk away from the deal unapologetically risking egg on their face, relationship with Boras, a lackluster 2023 season, and criticism from their fan base equal or greater than the Twins. I suspect they did not do that lightly.
    2. It was significant enough for Boras/Mets to settle on a deal worth $35mil less than the Giants offer.
    3. It's entirely possible the Twins know this mark on his medicals and perhaps led them to cap their offer where they did.
    4. Or perhaps Boras did approach the Twins after the Giants backed out and they stood firm with their offer.
    5. I don't know much about insuring star athletes, but is it plausible that some actuary presented a case for insurance up to a certain amount based on Correa's medical risk and that is a factor that teams have to legitimately weigh. For arguments sake, what if they will only insure up to $285mil? 
    6. Also...the deal with the Mets is not done...and I would think most would agree that the Mets offer here is not a sign of their confidence that the medical risk is insignificant. They are literally throwing money around and the physical is there to protect them too if they calculate differently between now and then. They'd suffer much less backlash because they'd be the second team to pull out validating the Giants move.

    Anyway...fun reading everyone's speculation. But man, there's a lot here we don't know.

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    As I stated previously, I never expect3d Correa back. But I fooled myself in to thinking there was a real chance for a while this offseason. But I just don't understand how any of this was handled.

    1] Apparently, the FO really and truly believed anyone else interested was in the $290-300M range so they were right in it. And maybe they were right initially. But when it became obvious it was going to have to be an offer at $300M plus, they had the option to walk away or stay in.

    2] The 3yr deal they gave to Correa was real. If he didn't opt out for any reason, he got another $35M in 2023. Same for 2024. So if they were willing to pay him $35M per year initially, then why not in the new offer? Or front load the first few years while payroll is so flexible?

    3] We'll probably never know what happened at midnight and if the Twins were even kept in the loop or not. But if Correa really wanted to stay, and the FO had actually offered him 10yrs and $300-310-ish, he might be a Twin right now. But then again, the Mets could have just gone $330 or more...since they seem to be printing $ these days...and blown the Twins out of the water as the Giants did.

    None of this makes any sense and that's my biggest issue.

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    23 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

    not worth alienating the fan base and the clubhouse to net one nice prospect, and that's all he'd have gotten you.

    First, Falvey has a tough job. Second, Gleybar Torres, others have been returned in July trades. I know that would have been tough, but many of us simple fans thought Buxton, Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, and others were day to day in late July. One would hope the team knows more than the public about the health of their team, and the resulting potential to win games. I guess we really don't know what was going on with the injuries, but is it possible to contend with the team the Twins put on the field in August and September? Maybe the injuries and collapse were just unavoidable and unpredictable; bad luck. I wanted the Twins to re-sign Correa, but somehow it seems like Falvey should have had at least some control of the situation. Whatever, it is done. It's in the past, it does not matter.

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    5 hours ago, Treevor71 said:

    Id hardly call 10/$285 skimping, that’s an over pay for a suspect back and a player who has never hit 30 hr or driven in 100.  IMO teams like the Twins should never give a contract like that to a player unless they are a legit super star, a player that can be counted on to take the field daily and be clutch, Correa was horrible with runners in scoring position.  The Giants and Twins dodged a bullet in my opinion, although I don’t agree with how the Giants handled things with him.  Everyone here complaining that we didn’t go high enough to get him are the same people that complained that mauer got that big contract and didn’t live up to it, I think Correas contract will age horribly and obviously Cohen can eat it with his money. 

    I thin the Giants handled it perfectly considering the agent involved.

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    Ok...

    First of all, people need to stop throwing numbers around like monopoly.  Nobody here has skin in the game.  You are talking about 10-20-35 million dollars like it is nothing.  Like it or not, baseball is a business.  The Twins are a business.  This ownership group has acted this way for years, they make no bones about it.  To continue to complain about it is asinine.  Come talk to me when you are willing to front $35 million of your own money.  The Twins knew what their number was on Correa, they weren't willing to move on it.  As fans, just accept it and move on. 

    Second, everybody needs to stop talking about direct correlation.  A does not lead to B.  It was not Vazquez/Gallo or Correa.  The signings/situations were totally independent of each other.  If you think signing Correa would have stopped this team that had 1 catcher on the 40 man roster from signing Vazquez, you are wrong.  Same with Gallo.

    Everybody is mad because the Twins had basically two routes they could go.  Spend tons of money on FA or see what the young guys bring to the table.  Personally I was hoping it would be closer to spending, but they chose option B.  Everybody that has been complaining about not giving the younger guys the chance... now you are getting your wish.  Deal with it.

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    6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    Ok, we can stop putting the blame for Correa squarely on the shoulders of the FO.

    But what about an off season that has produced Vasquez (an A in  my book), Farmer as the starting SS, and Gallo?  Who shoulders the blame for that? 

     

    Maybe nobody.  Maybe it was tactical.  Maybe they made decent runs at 5-6 guys and none of them panned out.  We don't know.  Stop looking to blame because you don't like the tack they took.

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    2 hours ago, JYTwinsFan said:

    I've been trying to monitor the reporting all day on this, so it's possible I've missed something, but I am surprised by the conviction a lot of people have around presuming to know what happened here. There's a pretty real chance that Correa has a significant medical risk that we will never know about (nor should we). For the time being, until further reporting or leaks, it seems worth considering that whatever it is...

    1. It was enough for the Giants, under significant pressure with their fanbase, to walk away from the deal unapologetically risking egg on their face, relationship with Boras, a lackluster 2023 season, and criticism from their fan base equal or greater than the Twins. I suspect they did not do that lightly.
    2. It was significant enough for Boras/Mets to settle on a deal worth $35mil less than the Giants offer.
    3. It's entirely possible the Twins know this mark on his medicals and perhaps led them to cap their offer where they did.
    4. Or perhaps Boras did approach the Twins after the Giants backed out and they stood firm with their offer.
    5. I don't know much about insuring star athletes, but is it plausible that some actuary presented a case for insurance up to a certain amount based on Correa's medical risk and that is a factor that teams have to legitimately weigh. For arguments sake, what if they will only insure up to $285mil? 
    6. Also...the deal with the Mets is not done...and I would think most would agree that the Mets offer here is not a sign of their confidence that the medical risk is insignificant. They are literally throwing money around and the physical is there to protect them too if they calculate differently between now and then. They'd suffer much less backlash because they'd be the second team to pull out validating the Giants move.

    Anyway...fun reading everyone's speculation. But man, there's a lot here we don't know.

    Here is another question for debate:

    If the Mets happen to fail him (which I 99% doubt), should the Twins still sign him?  Even at their last offer?  That would be two teams to pass on him physically.

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    4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

     who cares if spending 11m fixes 4th/5th outfielder? Speaking of foolish spending… they still need a RH hitter in the outfield.

    they still need hitters (plural). Farmer is a huge step down from Correa, Vazquez is fine hitter for a catcher,

    While this team may have the best (when healthy) 2-5 rotation, Sonny Gray is not the guy I want starting WS game 1.

    as things sit today, this team is worse than the team that went 78-84 with all the same injury questions.

    If they make the World Series, and Sonny Gray is the #1 starer, that means they won some playoff series!!  I'll take that all day!!  I mean, eventually, yes, gotta get better to win a World Series, but this team has been ass for so long, I just want a playoff series win to start with.

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    11 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

    Going $285M and not being willing to hit the $300M mark is skimping. The Twins were at $280M in April. They increased the offer, days before he signed with the Giants, by $5M. That's still a huge chunk of change, but if you're never making an offer he was going to consider (and he wasn't signing for less than $300M), then waiting through FA for a deal that wasn't ever going to happen is pretty silly.

    We are talking about a player whose deal just fell through due to medical concerns right? And what would he have accepted if the Mets weren’t a fall back. There is a chance he fails their physical too, but not likely.  

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