The Twins Pivotal Prospect

If you look at the scouting reviews for pitching prospects you will see that no pitching prospects are rated better than mid rotation level starters.(#3's). Why? I don't know, probably no scout/management type wants to put that type of pressure on them. Look at the writeup's for the pitchers in this years top 100 prospects. Nobody is rated better than midlevel. Some have a "midlevel starter with top of rotation characteristics" description. (At least in the independent scouting reviews I've seen}.

On the other hand I'm pretty sure fans of the top pitching prospects consider them ace material.

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Gioloto, Montas, Morton, Ray to name a few. Know what’s pitchers do

Giolito - Fastball, Changeup, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches.

Montas - Fastball, Splitter, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches.

Morton - Fastball, Splitter, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches.

Ray - Fastball, Slider, Curveball Changeup. 4 pitches.

I suppose I could give credit to Berrios having 4 pitches if I throw his sinker in there, but it's really just a slightly different fastball and most of the pitchers listed above also have a sinker. The splitter is offspeed from a 4 seamer or sinker. The reason starters generally need at least 3 breaking/off speed options, plus the fastball is because breaking pitches aren't generally as effective against RH and LH hitters. Pitchers generally need at least 3 pitches they can throw effectively against RH and LH hitters which is why true 3 pitch pitchers are generally back end of the rotation or bullpen arms.

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Giolito - Fastball, Changeup, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches.

Montas - Fastball, Splitter, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches.

Morton - Fastball, Splitter, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches.

Ray - Fastball, Slider, Curveball Changeup. 4 pitches.

I suppose I could give credit to Berrios having 4 pitches if I throw his sinker in there, but it's really just a slightly different fastball and most of the pitchers listed above also have a sinker. The splitter is offspeed from a 4 seamer or sinker. The reason starters generally need at least 3 breaking/off speed options, plus the fastball is because breaking pitches aren't generally as effective against RH and LH hitters. Pitchers generally need at least 3 pitches they can throw effectively against RH and LH hitters which is why true 3 pitch pitchers are generally back end of the rotation or bullpen arms.

When a pitch is used rarely in a game that pitcher doesn’t have a four pitch mix. Whatever you want to believe. Have at it. A poor pitch is not a benefit

38 minutes ago, old nurse said:

When a pitch is used rarely in a game that pitcher doesn’t have a four pitch mix. Whatever you want to believe. Have at it. A poor pitch is not a benefit

The only reason I know 3 pitch pitchers aren't aces and rarely become even #3's is because I spent many, many hours looking into pitches top pitchers were throwing while forming the opinion. Even so, I could have been wrong so I still had enough respect for your post to take the time to look into every single one of the pitchers you listed. I even went to multiple sites to confirm the pitches existed.

"Poor pitches" can be a benefit in that they can turn average pitches into good pitches by keeping a batter off balance. The weak pitch just needs to be servicable for a starter. For a reliever, they're likely to drop any pitch which isn't at least average.

On 12/7/2021 at 9:15 AM, mikelink45 said:

If we do not get a significant SS I want to see him get a major ST opportunity to prove he is the next great prospect and can take over the SS position.

I would love a Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis, Miranda infield - the future is right there.  I see Donaldson as the player most likely to bring in a pitcher in a trade.  The OF of Larnach, Kepler, Buxton would fit with this lineup, although I can see Kepler in a trade too.

This is just a dream scenario, but considering that we are in a lockout - why not dream.

My ideal post-lockout scenario would be Donaldson, Sano, and Kepler packaged and sent to either Miami for Alcantera and Bleier or sent to Oakland for Montas and any decent reliever.  I would also like to see Martin in LF and Lewis in RF, with Buxton between them.  Sign Iglesias to play SS and have Palacios around as a utility IF.  Low payroll, lots of youth getting a chance, and maybe some excitement at Target Field.  Who knows, maybe by mid-season the staring rotation includes Winder, Balazavic, Sands, and Strotman???

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The only reason I know 3 pitch pitchers aren't aces and rarely become even #3's is because I spent many, many hours looking into pitches top pitchers were throwing while forming the opinion. Even so, I could have been wrong so I still had enough respect for your post to take the time to look into every single one of the pitchers you listed. I even went to multiple sites to confirm the pitches existed.

"Poor pitches" can be a benefit in that they can turn average pitches into good pitches by keeping a batter off balance. The weak pitch just needs to be servicable for a starter. For a reliever, they're likely to drop any pitch which isn't at least average.

So a pitcher is an Ace a number three or less. Got it. A pitcher’s third and fourth pitch are as effective as their most used pitches. 

8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

My ideal post-lockout scenario would be Donaldson, Sano, and Kepler packaged and sent to either Miami for Alcantera and Bleier or sent to Oakland for Montas and any decent reliever.  I would also like to see Martin in LF and Lewis in RF, with Buxton between them.  Sign Iglesias to play SS and have Palacios around as a utility IF.  Low payroll, lots of youth getting a chance, and maybe some excitement at Target Field.  Who knows, maybe by mid-season the staring rotation includes Winder, Balazavic, Sands, and Strotman???

 

Miami and Oakland would have close to zero interest in Donaldson / Sano / Kepler.  Donaldson would have negative value to either team.  They want top prospects.  Kirilloff / Miranda / Martin / Lewis and/or our very top pitching prospects.  At least two of Kirilloff / Miranda / Martin / Lewis are gone in these scenarios and probably 3 of Balazovic / Winder / Enlow / Canterino / Duran and Sands.  Therefore, a plan of trading for these established pitchers and bringing on these top prospects is probably mutually exclusive.

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Lucas Giolito throws his curve 3% of the time. Calling him a 4 pitch pitcher is a stretch.

Frankie Montas, according to baseball savant, threw a fastball, changeup, and slider in 2022. 3 pitches.

Charlie Morton threw his cutter 8% and change 5% in 2021. Technically 4 pitches, but he's a 2 pitch pitcher.

Robbie Ray throws his curve and change combined a total of 9% of the time. Considering him a 4 pitch pitcher is overstating a lot. He's a 2 pitch pitcher.

Chris Sale throws 3 pitches and he's considered drastically better than a #3. He's mostly a 2 pitch pitcher as well with his change used just 16% of the time.

Baseball savant lists Berrios at 56% fastball, 30% curve, and only 13% on his change in 2021. He's almost a 2 pitch pitcher.

I think you're drastically overstating pitch numbers. I mean if Robbie Ray throws 100 pitches in a game he's throwing his curve and change a combined 9 times. No hitter cares about those pitches.

 

Fair enough. I'll concede. 

9 hours ago, old nurse said:

So a pitcher is an Ace a number three or less. Got it. A pitcher’s third and fourth pitch are as effective as their most used pitches. 

Not at all what I said. I took the high road. I'll just block you now.

If the Twins won't play in FA then nobody should be off limits as far as trades to bring back pitching are concerned. I'd rather that not be the case, but this team can't forgo the option to buy front end pitching, designate top prospects as untouchable, and then expect to develop a staff when there isn't a single prospect that profiles even on the level of Berrios.