The Twins Have a Long Man... Or Not

This is timely and really accurate. It's so hard to believe that we have still not developed a sense of what roles the various relief pitchers can fill and that we still have such faith in Pagan. I know that I'm just a fan like the rest of the writers on this site, but we watch and analyze every game I just seems so apparent that bullpen management despite the myriad coaches just does not have a good plan. I don't think anyone saw Cole Sands is a one inning relief picture. 

I am sorry for the errors. I am on a boat in Louisville and did that with voice recognition - Obviously I talk funny. 

Just one time I would like to be a fly on the wall when the coaches do their strategy sessions.  Maybe I would understand more the thought process behind the things they do, because I sure don't now.  Sands is another perfect example of what I don't get with the usage of starters and bullpen.  I guess they are just smarter than I am.  At least that is what everyone keeps telling me,    

You convinced me. Using Sands when you just need one inning mop up and Pagan when you need long relief does seem inexplicable. And I am saying that as someone who thinks most criticism of Rocco's bullpen usage is overblown. Most often the problem is just a lack of good options. But I can't defend this.

I understand the temptation to stick with Pagan. He throws 97, has filthy stuff, and gets swings and misses. But when every fifth pitch is a mistake right down the middle, the results will be just what you see. Everyone in the big leagues can hit a mistake. It doesn't matter what you do between mistakes if you lead the league in home runs. And he now has a four year track record saying this is not going to stop. 

I just hope Alcala and Maeda are ready for the stretch run. They don't have starters that can protect the bullpen, and the don't have enough relievers to throw five innings every night. There is no right answer for Rocco till reinforcements arrive.

But in the meantime, why not use Sands in long relief? That is a head scratcher. I hope it's not because they need him to start for Mahle, but that might be a consideration.

12 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Just one time I would like to be a fly on the wall when the coaches do their strategy sessions.  Maybe I would understand more the thought process behind the things they do, because I sure don't now.  Sands is another perfect example of what I don't get with the usage of starters and bullpen.  I guess they are just smarter than I am.  At least that is what everyone keeps telling me,    

Yes, Mark, they just have more knowledge  about pitching and the players' health than you do. However I agree with you that the management is wrong about this issue.

I guess I missed where the Twins said he was going to be a long reliever.  I get that it seems logical but the premise of the article is based on that assumption.  Perhaps they are going to let Pagan be the long reliever as he just had a multiple inning outing. 

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Yes, Mark, they just have more knowledge  about pitching and the players' health than you do. However I agree with you that the management is wrong about this issue.

I say this tongue in cheek, but if they have all that knowledge about the players health, how come it seems like every pitcher they bring in is either just coming off an injury, or about to get one?    

Who sold me on long relief was Pat Neshek. Twins had tons of success having him pitch in long relief. His success proved the necessity of having long relief. I'm all for having 5 SP studs that can regularly complete games or a stable of 5 lights out short RPs that are available in every  game but that's only a fantasy. We need to wake up to the reality, we don't have any SP studs because they are absolutely too expensive. Our only hope was Mahle which now there's some doubt to that. 

In the beginning of this season fortunately we had Duran who developed into a lights out RP, Smith was great in the use of fireman in sparse situations but now is gone and Jax developed into a good set up man. These short RPs could not bridge the gap to complete every single game so they had to use  inadequate RPs which caused us many defeats. Thielbar has returned to form with the addition of Lopez  & Fulmer we have pretty good staff of short RPs but we can't march them out in every single game. Plus Lopez hasn't been lights out yet for the Twins.

The rare times that long relief was used, a couple of times with Winder & 1x Sands we had success, But Baldelli is afraid to use long relief because people will wake up & start to see the necessity of it and he'll have to reduce his analytical usuage of short relief, which he prides himself.

This is not completely accurate. In the case of Archer and Bundy the coachs put limits on there pitch counts. This was done early in the season because they were trying to keep them healthy. Archer could have won 3 more games if he could have pitched at least one more inning . He was doing well and his pitch count was in the 60''s. Bundy's game yesterday was almost lost by pulling him at 71 pitches. He had walked one runner and they pulled him with a one hit shut out. The next pitcher gave up a run. Grey was yanked against his wishes after pitching a gem into the 7th when he walked two hitters. His pitch count was good. Sands was not that great the first go around this year. Besides we have Winder, Ober, Maeda  all coming back in September. 

Typically I try to not be too critical of managerial decisions but you make a good point on Sands not being used as a long reliever when he is transitioning from starter. I’ve been a Rocco fan but am continually baffled by his BP usage, even after the trades. Show a little faith in your starters once in awhile. Heaven forbid they give up a loud out in the fifth inning because then they are gone. 

1 hour ago, by jiminy said:

I just hope Alcala and Maeda are ready for the stretch run

Alcala is out for the year, and from last friday  - Maeda (elbow) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Friday and will throw another bullpen Monday,

So I think we can assume we won't see him for quite a while if at all this year.

Does any team have a pitcher used exclusively as a long man? I think Sands has the least trust in the bullpen. I don’t think he replaces Mahle in a close game. I believe they trust Pagán more in that situation.

He is the reliever with options. There will be a game where the Twins get down and he goes in to save the rest of the bullpen followed by a trip to St. Paul after the game.

I think the Twins do need a trusted mid game reliever that can go multiple innings. With the addition of Fulmer and Lopez I think Jax can return that role. In the first two months of the season most of his appearances went more than an inning. That shifted when Duffey, Smith and Pagán failed. 

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This is timely and really accurate. It's so hard to believe that we have still not developed a sense of what roles the various relief pictures Ken Phil and that we still have such faith in pagan. I know that I'm just a fan like the rest of the writers on this site, but we watch and analyze every game I just seems so apparent that bullpen management despite the myriad coaches just does not have a good plan. I don't think anyone saw Cole Sands is a one inning relief picture. 

Don't you just hate auto correct?  Why is there a "relief picture Ken Phil" or having faith in some pagan reliever?

We get 2 more players September 1. Playoff eligibility rests on who is on roster as of September 1………Am looking for confirmation on both of these - correct?

Somebody has to go for Mahle in Houston - in a few days - is that Sands as an “opener”? Good way to fry another 5 guys if he goes 3.1.

Sept. 1 we add Smeltzer - Winder - Maeda - Moran with Pagan & Sands displaced. We use Maeda & Moran to get out of innings…..similar to Thielbar now. Winder & Smeltzer are both potential long guys. Rest of pen is used as they have been.

Wiil Winder &/or Maeda be ready in 11 more days……..don’t have to pitch immediately - just improving & roster ready..

In no way will I defend or try to explain this staff's use of the bullpen.  But there may have been a reason to bring Sands in for that late inning of mop up.  Someone may have this at their fingertips, but I believe Sands hadn't pitched in four or five days.  So he needed work and they may have viewed it as similar to a bullpen session.  Unfortunately, doing that means he isn't available the next day and there is no way of knowing when they are gonna need that long guy.

Hopefully, he is considered their long guy.  What they think/do, however, is impossible for any of us to understand.

I agree and let’s see what happens today. We all know Archer will go only four or five innings. Today would be a perfect day for Sands to go 2-4 innings and then be the guy who’s optioned to AAA SO Aaron Sanchez or Smeltzer can come up and start Tuesday in Houston. Sands can then come back in 10 days and be on the Roster by 9/1 in case we make the playoffs or we can run a 6 man rotation in September. 

2 hours ago, Stew said:

This is not completely accurate. In the case of Archer and Bundy the coachs put limits on there pitch counts. This was done early in the season because they were trying to keep them healthy. Archer could have won 3 more games if he could have pitched at least one more inning . He was doing well and his pitch count was in the 60''s. Bundy's game yesterday was almost lost by pulling him at 71 pitches. He had walked one runner and they pulled him with a one hit shut out. The next pitcher gave up a run. Grey was yanked against his wishes after pitching a gem into the 7th when he walked two hitters. His pitch count was good. Sands was not that great the first go around this year. Besides we have Winder, Ober, Maeda  all coming back in September. 

 

Bundy's pitch counts from beginning of the year to current. 67, 71, 79, 94, 74, 54, 85, 95, 67, 66, 107, 60, 83, 58, 77, 88, 77, 78, 65, 65, 71. Bundy's been pulled from games where he'd allowed 0-1 runs anywhere from 65 to 107 pitches. Doesn't seem like a pitch count limit to me.

Playoff eligibility.

Player must be on 40 man roster or 60 day IL as August 31 turn into September 1 to be eligible.

Cole Sands struggles with control. I was at the aforementioned game where Sands went 3 innings against the Blue Jays and it always felt like Sands was just on the edge of getting annihilated, frequently missing his spots by wide margins.

Maybe Sands can be a long reliever, but I'm not sold on his MLB level skills in longer outings. Sands average fastball went from 91mph to 93mph when he was given 1 inning appearances.

I gave up a long time ago trying to figure out what on Earth Rocco is doing with his bullpen.  It seems like for most of their relievers it's less about "roles" and more about which 3 hitters in the opponents order they think a specific reliever can actually get out.  As for Pagan, it's clear they're so enamored with his whiff rate that they don't realize he hasn't been good since 2019.

I called for him to be up and in the MLB bullpen and I'm glad he got the call. With a wipe out pitch, you can be valuable in relief. He has one and some other pitches. The other pitches aren't good enough for long outings

The OP is dead on target. You can argue back and forth about whether Sands should be the person (small sample recent outings show maybe?), but as Cody pointed out, there have been several capable long relievers on the roster this year, and none of them have gotten consistent long outings. Despite the built-in need for long RP to pair with Archer (and to a lesser extent, Bundy).

And the big problem with under-usage (beyond wearing the 'pen to tatters with 3-5 of them pitching per game) is you destroy the ability of a long RP to stay "long". It is the reverse of 'stretching' out a pitcher. This pretty much falls on the manager.

Rocco has his strengths, but it feels like he doesn't really get the pitching part, so he goes with a regular plan of pulling people after two times through the order, and mix/matching single inning folks the rest of the way, probably based on some data, but missing the balance of who is rolling, who is not, and what the load may be over several days. When we don't have off days, you end up with fried RPs along with clearly irritating his lead starter.

(In Rocco's defense, though, I think Archer has only thrown back to back 5 inning efforts once, and ended up on the IL immediately thereafter, and he consistently gets wilder as his outings go on. He really isn't physically up to carrying more innings, which in turn calls for a long RP. Plus, after Gray walked two in the 7th the other day, his pitch count was 92; even Sonny seemed to acknowledge it was time by saying he appreciated the chance to pitch into the 7th and he'd do better with the next opportunity.)

If Sands had better numbers in AAA and in MLB, I imagine he would get more appearances. "Stuff", the mysterious "Stuff" sounds good on paper, and to say, and to claim, but his stats need to back that up before he can be trusted. So far, he needs to perform better to deserve the opportunites.

Why not alternate starts by Bundy/Archer with the other pitching second?  

We will see how many innings he pitches in todfay's start of Archer.

I always thought Griffin Jax was also going to do regular long relief, 2-3 innings a shot in two out of five days. But, alas, he seems to be developing into a setup man role.

2 hours ago, PatPfund said:

The OP is dead on target. You can argue back and forth about whether Sands should be the person (small sample recent outings show maybe?), but as Cody pointed out, there have been several capable long relievers on the roster this year, and none of them have gotten consistent long outings. Despite the built-in need for long RP to pair with Archer (and to a lesser extent, Bundy)...

Bundy should be going 6-8 innings a game. His pitch counts are almost always very efficient. In the process of debating and researching the TTO theories, the stats on how frequently average pitchers are asked to go out to the mound for the 6th inning, and the answer is very frequently. Nearly 80% of MLB starters, on average, are on the mound in the 6th inning.

My concern is the extreme shifting in Bundy's pitch counts at this point. I knew Baldelli was pulling him early and with few pitches, but I had no idea how drastically different Bundy's pitch counts have been. Bundy's workload has varied by over to 60% in back to back games. He's seen games where he's thrown 107 pitches and games where he's been pulled at 58 for seemingly no reason.

On average, Bundy can only guess how many pitches he's going to throw as the average difference in his pitch count is almost 25% from game to game. This cannot be good for his health. 

Arguments the Twins are limiting innings or pitch counts etc to protect their pitchers seem unreasonable to me at this point. It seems the only reason behind the moves is the commitment to winning each and every game with the philosophy the front office and manager have agreed to follow. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong.

I don't think the team believes in long relievers. Relievers almost always do better in short stints.

The hard part about having a long reliever is that you don't know exactly when you need them - except when you have a pitcher like Archer in your rotation. Nobody would have predicted Mahle leaves the game that early. 

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Bundy should be going 6-8 innings a game. His pitch counts are almost always very efficient. In the process of debating and researching the TTO theories, the stats on how frequently average pitchers are asked to go out to the mound for the 6th inning, and the answer is very frequently. Nearly 80% of MLB starters, on average, are on the mound in the 6th inning.

My concern is the extreme shifting in Bundy's pitch counts at this point. I knew Baldelli was pulling him early and with few pitches, but I had no idea how drastically different Bundy's pitch counts have been. Bundy's workload has varied by over to 60% in back to back games. He's seen games where he's thrown 107 pitches and games where he's been pulled at 58 for seemingly no reason.

On average, Bundy can only guess how many pitches he's going to throw as the average difference in his pitch count is almost 25% from game to game. This cannot be good for his health. 

Arguments the Twins are limiting innings or pitch counts etc to protect their pitchers seem unreasonable to me at this point. It seems the only reason behind the moves is the commitment to winning each and every game with the philosophy the front office and manager have agreed to follow. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong.

Bundy isn't most pitchers. He can easily throw 100 pitches, but for once I agree with Rocco. Against potent lineups, the 88 mph fastball starts to look like batting practice the third time around. There is a reason there are VERY FEW pitchers in MLB throwing that speed. Love the guts, but it only gets you so far.

Maybe Rocco reads Twins Daily! Smeltzer had an honest to goodness long relief stint tonight (and did well at it).

12 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Bundy isn't most pitchers. He can easily throw 100 pitches, but for once I agree with Rocco. Against potent lineups, the 88 mph fastball starts to look like batting practice the third time around. There is a reason there are VERY FEW pitchers in MLB throwing that speed. Love the guts, but it only gets you so far.

Throws as hard as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but starts to look like batting practice, eh? Seems like a strong strike against Falvey for signing the guy if he's an opener and not a starter.