The Twins $55 Million Question

I don't think the final decision will be all that tough.  This is just a bunch of silly hand-wringing over, at best, middle of the road pitchers.  I start with "Buy low/sell high". 

If you want something that get somewhat of a decent return, you trade Pelfrey.  Yes, you're taking a chance that Pelfrey could really be what we're seeing now.  So what?  That's the nature of the beast.  Gibson also falls into this category. 

Soft-tossing lefties have something of a successful track record in the fastball-dominate NL.  Trade Milone.  Gibson also, to a lessor extent, falls into this category.

Hughes and May.  I warned about the possible fall of Hughes:  in season by season stats, Hughes would have one good year [with career high number of innings pitched] only to fall miserably the next year.  2015 = The next year.  How could anyone think 16 BB's for the entire season would be sustainable?  Every team knows that Hughes WILL put the ball over the plate, the biggest reason I was against the extension.  May has been doing well, but very much an 'up and down' guy.  I have to reason not to trade either, if trading Hughes s even possible.  

It still comes down to one thing:  What do other teams think of them??

The best decision might be a Santana in the pen.

Milone? He his outperforming Santana's projections for this year. He has outperformed Santana since his first full season in 2012. If he has outperformed Santana his last 500 innings, isn't it possible he will in the next half season? He is also 4 years younger.

Gibson or May? Both young pitchers critical to the Twins future. Do they want to replace them with a pitcher that was league average though his prime and highly likely to be below in his decline?

Pelfrey? He is performing too well.

Hughes? He really fits the Gibson/May group. He is in his prime and critical to the future.

When they sign a decline phase veteran to a long term contract they have to understand that there will be a point before the contract expires where that pitcher will no longer be among the best 5 options. The best decision might be to use Santana in the pen until injury or a string of poor performances gives him an opportunity.

I have no objection to a 6-man rotation. After the third day of rest, each starter could be available for long relief, so you're not really losing a reliever out of it. A guy like Milone could do that easily, and so could May, and Pelfrey was preparing for that role before Santana's suspension. If a guy does do a stint in long relief, you just push his next start back a few days.

On a team that shuffles guys around like the Twins, a 6-man flexible rotation should be no big deal.

I like the idea of trading someone, whoever has the highest current value. I also like the idea of a 6-man rotation. Perhaps you trade someone and have a 6-man rotation once Nolasco comes back.

I'm not opposed to a 6 man rotation, and I can see Arguements for it. But I just don't think it's necessary. This isn't about player development.

Hughes's season is down, no doubt, but it doesn't suck. Let's be honest. And like last year, he seems to be turning it around and cutting loose. He's just doing so later than last year, unfortunately. Gibson has the potential to be a stud, and is starting to look like it. He lost to the Cubs today, and absolutely stunk up the place. He stunk up the place allowing 6 hits in 5 IP with 2 ER and 3 BB and 6 SO. Wait....what? That's what we call a bad performance these days? Answer: YES. May has as good of stuff and control as Gibson, but is probably a little more SO and fly ball and a little less grounder prone. Pelfrey has a guardian Angel on his shoulder who is either...not to sound morbid...a: granting Pelfrey a final wish, or b: granting him a new lease on life where he he begins to fulfill his potential after gaining experience, perspective, the right atmosphere and coaching after leaving NY and gaining health.

Take your choice, which is more believable? A top pick SP is mediocre in his ML career before going under the knife. Once he comes back, he comes back way too early admitted by himself and everyone else involved, in a different city and league and atmosphere...pretty much sucks except for a few flashes, and then finds a half season of actual success in the new place before the sky comes falling down...OR...all of the above....except the sky doesn't fall in, and what he really needed was health and a change of help and scenery.

You tell me, 'cause I don't know. But you ride his ride for now and hold on for dear life. You DO NOT offer him an extension. You DO offer him a QO, unless someone comes calling with a nice trade offer. You do so in case this isn't smoke and mirrors, because you can afford the shot, and because you get a draft pick if he walks.

It's not fair to Milone, but he's the odd man out. I don't know, maybe the soft tossing Milone is a LH version/weaker version of...I don't know...fill in the blank. And maybe he is just vastly under appreciated. And maybe all the scouts from the Twins, A's, Nationals and other organizations just don't get it, and if allowed to pitch every 5th day for a year, he would absolutely surprise everyone.

But right now, all of us seem to see the same thing, guts and guile. That's commendable and solid and can be productive. But not viable consistently or enduringly. I don't think his stuff plays in the pen, and he might be better off staying stretched out in AAA until needed or traded, but right now, I don't know that we have ANYONE from the port side for the bullpen that is remotely reliable. So for now, I'd say to the pen with him.

Nolasco....if he was making $5-7M I'd say throw him in the pen when healthy. But he's not, and I don't know that it's reasonable at his price, and experience, to make such a move. Push has to come to shove, and the rock simply has to impact the hard place. In other words, Ryan has to do something he doesn't want to. He has to move a SP regardless of cost or market. It's just a bitter reality that seems almost impossible since we are talking about the Twins here.

Nolasco has to go, probably to a NL team, needing some rotation help, probably with a throw in, a reliever like Pressly or Tonkin say, and anywhere from 1/2 to 2/3 of the next 2 years salary picked up. How good of a return prospect/talent the Twins get back depends on how much salary they pick up, and how good of a toss-in they include. It doesn't mean Nolasco sucks, or was a mistake, it just means it didn't work out, timing and fate didn't match up, and now we need to find the best way to move on.

Why do we have to trade anybody?  Someone will go down the second we do, then what?  Why should we give away anybody that is producing?  We won't get a thing for any of them, and we should know this from past experience.  We have waited a long time to have a decent rotation and now we're going to give it away because we actually have enough pitching.  Make one or two of these guys go to the bullpen so we can purge the system of some of the garbage in there.  Hold on to talent while it's here!  Can't Milone replace Duensing?  Nolasco should go there as well.  

They need to wait and see if Santana improves in his next two starts. His first wasn't good but it can be explained by being rusty. He needs to dominate before they give him one of the 5 spots. If not let him dominate in the pen through the all star break. He needs to show he is a better option than the current 5 before earning a spot.

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore.

Milone 98 ERA+

Santana 95 ERA+

Nolasco 87 ERA+

The Twins were foolish to give Santana a long term contract when he couldn't find one the previous two off seasons. They were foolish to jump into the market early with both Santana and Nolasco instead of letting the market dictate their value. Will they be foolish to pitch them when they aren't one of the best 5 options? That is going to happen sometime in the next few years as they decline. Maybe we are already there.

Trades won't occur until the trade deadline approaches. IF the Twins are in a buying mood, I'd package two starters (Pelfrey, Milone and/or Gibson) for an ace. If we sell, sell Pelf for prospects. At any rate, make room for Berrios & company in 2016.

It is not as easy as who will outperform who.   Nolasco has negative trade value.  Nobody wants to go near him and that contract. 

 

Ervin may have some value if the Twins pick up a fair amount of salary and we are not going to sign a guy for $55M, watch him sit half a season and then pay him $7-8M a year for the next 4.5 years to pitch somewhere else.  He has the track record of a pretty good pitcher.

It needs to be that easy. They need to give themselves the best chance to win. Neither Santana or Nolasco will have any trade value. They didn't have trade value the moment the Twins gave them the contract. They compounded it with their performance and actions since signing those contracts.

The Twins need to start the best 5. Santana may be one of the best 5 but he needs to show it and earn that spot.