The Scouting Skinny: The Multi-Pick Gambit

To draft a top 15 talent with a pick in the  mid to late 30 range a talent has to fall there. That player would likely need to be a high school player. That player would also have to believe that in a couple of years they would not be a top 5 talent and be earning a lot more money. The extra money might be useful in the later rounds when drafting a high school player to pay them mid round money. There is no certainty who will be there other than at the first pick.

I prefer Wright, but I also really like MacKenzie Gore.

If somehow the Twins wind up getting Gore & Shane Baz I would be really impressed.

I still say take the BPA,  but if you think the draft is that deep, then games can be played, but that also takes a club above you listening to an advisor and passing on the player you want.  The problem with high schoolers is that the difference in money where they would be taken in the 30's will not be enough for them to take the gigantic leap and pass on what is offered to hopefully become a higher pick in 1-3 years.  And 1 year only if they are willing to go to a junior college and have the issue of lesser competition. 

Specifically how might this work with Mackenzie Gore as the Twins' first pick?

I still say take the BPA,  but if you think the draft is that deep, then games can be played, but that also takes a club above you listening to an advisor and passing on the player you want.  The problem with high schoolers is that the difference in money where they would be taken in the 30's will not be enough for them to take the gigantic leap and pass on what is offered to hopefully become a higher pick in 1-3 years.  And 1 year only if they are willing to go to a junior college and have the issue of lesser competition. 

This is so very interesting.

You sit down with MacKenzie Gore and ask a hypothetical question, like, "Would you sign for $6 million?" Gore looks at his financial adviser (Scott Boras) and his adviser slides a piece of paper to Gore. Gore reads it and says, "I'll sign for slightly under slot. I want $7 million."

Asking the same question of Wright, he says, "Sure!".

Now Gore has probably hurt himself a bit, but it really hasn't hurt Boras. And I suspect that is really who Boras is most concerned about.

That's the narrative we always make, and I used to be in that camp. However lately I'm not; getting as much money as the player can is obviously nearly always in the player's best interest. I don't think the "greedy agent" stereotype is any more fair for him than it is for any other agent. The players still benefit the most from diligent negotiating.

 

If Boras was hurting his clients to better himself, he wouldn't still be the pre-eminent agent and we'd be hearing horror stories from former employees and clients.

I, too, appreciate that an agent’s job is to get the best deal for his client. Kendrys Morales, Mark Teixeira, and ARod are some of the players who had Boras as an agent and switched. Boras gambles with players’ futures. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it costs his clients a lot of money. He has enough wins to sell himself to new clients, but unless you are an elite player, a guy like Boras may not be your wisest choice.

I suppose having Mark Appel hold out for as much money as possible was wise, as he may never see the big leagues.

Seriously? Being wrong sometimes makes you greedy or bad at your job? You really think his agency only represents or helps the elite?

I said that I think he's best suited for elite players. Gambles with elite players pay off more often.

More than one Boras client has declined a qualifying offer and waited until the following July or so to sign with a team.

That has a cost.

That's probably fair, though I would think his advice weighs heavily.

Boras has a lot of clients. Each ballplayer only has one career.

Mistakes, or 'losses', impact the player greatly.

They do. And it is a bummer for them when he is wrong.

 

side trek: I still can't figure out why Appel can't pitch. He had it ALL in college.

Mark Appel, Stanford, 2013:
106.1 IP, 130 K, 23 W, BAA .203

My father & I have talked about Appel's issues as well. Puzzling.

Listed at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, the Phillies 25-year-old right-hander has a matured build with a strong lower half. Appel has lots of moving parts in his delivery making it tough to repeat and throw consistent strikes. His arm works well and it’s a fringe-average three-pitch mix at best across the board (fastball, slider, changeup). Appel’s fastball was 91-94 mph and fairly straight and hittable. The lack of movement and overall command results in an average grade fastball. The slider was 81-83 with short, vertical break grading as an average grade pitch but does not project to be a legit swing-miss offering. The changeup was 83-85 and a clear third offering that was straight and fairly flat, playing more as a BP fastball. There’s not much, if any, projection left with Appel and he appears to be a solid Triple-A organizational depth arm that could make a few spot starts in case of emergency at the major league level.

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/4/25/15405352/its-time-to-make-mark-appel-the-reliever