The Scouting Skinny: Brendan McKay

While the Twins have a plethora of 1B types, McKay would fit the the Twins timeline better either as a pitcher or hitter. Greene is tempting, but a huge role of the dice, and development might cause him to miss the prime of this teams postion players. (Unless the team changes its stance on signing their own FA) High velocity high school arms like Greene are scary, and if he ends up hurt, he is at least 5 years from TF, if at all. As of this draft, the Twins don't seem to have a farm system that looks to support a long term run of contention.

 

While the Twins have a plethora of 1B types, McKay would fit the the Twins timeline better either as a pitcher or hitter. Greene is tempting, but a huge role of the dice, and development might cause him to miss the prime of this teams postion players. (Unless the team changes its stance on signing their own FA) High velocity high school arms like Greene are scary, and if he ends up hurt, he is at least 5 years from TF, if at all. As of this draft, the Twins don't seem to have a farm system that looks to support a long term run of contention.

I have to disagree with the above.  The only reason the Twins farm system is only at a mid rank position is that most of the talent is further away.  Except for some pitchers there is very little talent at Rochester and only at little more at Chattanooga

Granite, Park, and Gordon(maybe Vielma) are the only position players on these teams, I feel we will see for more that a cup of coffee in Minnesota.  I would love to be wrong, but this is how I see it. .

I know nothing about McKay other than what Jeremy has said. I don't think it would be wise to draft a pitcher #1 overall who doesn't have legit ace potential. Is one spring enough to go from at least solid #3 to legit ace potential?

 

If he is the #1 pick then I would rather it be as a hitter. It is definitely an interesting situation.

Greene has an ego the size of Texas and with that velo at such a young age is almost certainly going to have TJ sooner than later. Young bodies simply can't handle that hard of throwing without damage. This kid wouldn't see a big league uniform for 4 years at least. Risk isn't worth the reward. Ask teammates how he really is. He scrubbed his twitter of all the Lavar Ball esque things he used to say and clearly has a PR rep having him do all the expected good boy routine. Yes I know he's a kid. But give a kid constant adulation and millions of dollars and 9 times out of ten you're going to create an ego monster and clubhouse cancer

High school position players and pitchers are very different. And no my 9/10 is anecdotal based on personal knowledge and experience. But it doesn't take an MIT study to see what fame and fortune do to kids.

If his upside is really #3 starter I go with Greene. You can't use the first overall pick for a mid rotation starter.

If his upside is really #3 starter I go with Greene. You can't use the first overall pick for a mid rotation starter.

I read "at worst, a solid #3 for a long time." I'll take a floor of #3 all day. Noting, of course that the real floor is out of baseball and that the high schooler is much more likely to wash out than the guy who's been doing it at a high level for three years.

 

I get the whole upside thing, but I've never seen a credible source say that McKay or Wright couldn't be top of the rotation guys. Greene is much scarier on the low end of his possible outcomes than he is attractive on the high end.

Edited May 8, 2017 by 70charger

 

I don't necessarily want McKay, but a #3 isn't his ceiling. He could certainly be better.

 

There isn't a surefire ace in the draft, and there isn't an obvious bat to take instead. Greene has the highest upside, but there are obvious risks.

Yeah I wasn't trying to imply that #3 is his ceiling. When I read "bigger version of Ted Lilly" I don't think of #1 pick in the draft. Just a little concerned with that, but like I said, I know nothing other than what I have read on this site.

 

While the Twins have a plethora of 1B types, McKay would fit the the Twins timeline better either as a pitcher or hitter. Greene is tempting, but a huge role of the dice, and development might cause him to miss the prime of this teams postion players. (Unless the team changes its stance on signing their own FA) High velocity high school arms like Greene are scary, and if he ends up hurt, he is at least 5 years from TF, if at all. As of this draft, the Twins don't seem to have a farm system that looks to support a long term run of contention.

 

Bingo!  My thoughts too. Buxton and Sano  could be approaching free agency by the time Greene gets to the "bigs". At least McKay (or Wright) could make it on a more aggressive timeline.

What would be the easier transition after a couple years - Switching from pitching to hitting, or...hitting to pitching? Seems to me the former. If KcKay failed (gulp) at pitching after a couple years in the minors it would be easier to pick up the bat and continue your career.

Interesting thought... if Kohl Stewart was a dual threat like McKay, would he have been switched to a position player by now? Or still too soon?

In 1991 Jack Morris pitched a 10 inning shutout in the World Series. It wasn't the first time a pitcher had pitched into extra innings in World Series. Long ago a very talented young pitcher  named Babe Ruth pitched a complete 14 inning World Series game and won 2-1. Ruth (career 89-46 record to that point) was relieved of his pitching duties and moved to the outfield 4 years later (by some other team).

 

It will be one or the other. Not both.