The Key to Success is Losing the Division

Two seasons later, the lead is again slipping away toward our division rivals to the east.If the playoffs started today, the current seeding would look like this:

1. Tampa Bay Rays
   
2. Oakland A’s
   
3. Cleveland Indians
   
4. Chicago White Sox
   
5. Houston Astros
   
6. New York Yankees
   
7. Minnesota Twins
   
8. Toronto Blue Jays
   

The Twins would face the Oakland A’s, one of the hottest teams in baseball. However, Baseball Reference paints a slightly different playoff picture (predicted wins in parenthesis):

1. Tampa Bay Rays (38.0 - 22.0)
   
2. Cleveland Indians (37.0 - 23.0)
   
3. Oakland A’s (36.6 - 23.4)
   
4. Houston Astros (35.6 - 24.4)
   
5. Minnesota Twins (34.5 - 25.5)
   
6. New York Yankees (34.2 - 25.8)
   
7. Chicago White Sox (33.9 - 26.1)
   
8. Toronto Blue Jays (31.2 - 28.8)
   

In this projection, the Minnesota Twins would face off against the Houston Astros, while the Cleveland Indians would face off against the Chicago White Sox.

This season, the only teams that any division winner could play in the first round are the Wild Card teams and a second place team. However, the top two seeds of the second place teams are guaranteed to play one another. On paper, winning the division is the most favorable. Realistically, with the current field of Wild Card teams and the last second place seed, it is most favorable for the Twins to finish second in their division as the fourth or fifth seed to avoid potentially facing either the New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, or Toronto Blue Jays as a division winner.

Given the history of Twins and Yankees postseason meetings, no explanation is needed as to why the Twins should avoid New York at all costs. The Chicago White Sox have been a surprise this season with their lethal offense, led by rookie Luis Robert. Having to face left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel in the second game of a White Sox matchup puts the pressure on the first game against “no-hitter” Lucas Giolito if the Twins want to advance. Given the Jays’ trade deadline moves and the imminent return of Bo Bichette, the Jays will be an even more formidable opponent in September. The numbers also suggest that the Astros are a preferable opponent over Toronto and other playoff contenders.

The Jays’ pitching has been surprisingly lethal this season with a 3.60 ERA that ranks them 5th in baseball, over the Twins, Chicago, Tampa, New York, and Houston. Their rotation holds a 1.30 WHIP over the Astros’ 1.33, and opponents are batting .232 off of Jays pitchers. The addition of Robbie Ray adds another veteran lefty to their rotation (with Ryu), while the only left-handed Astros starter is Framber Valdez. Right-handed veteran Justin Verlander currently has no return date, in addition to Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock, Jose Urquidy, and Chris Devinski.

The baby Jays have quietly been lethal offensively as well, with every single rookie batting over .252 with an .800 OPS or better. The Jays are currently outhitting both the Twins and Astros in home runs and OPS and have a similar batting average as the Astros. The Jays have reached all of their current milestones without Bo Bichette. However, Jonathan Villar was acquired as an insurance bat in Bichette’s absence. Meanwhile, many of the Astros’ best hitters are struggling at the plate, with Altuve hitting under .200 until a week ago. Unlike Toronto, Houston did not add an insurance bat to take the place of Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, or Michael Brantley.

With no home-field advantage, the seeds become a moot point and puts the emphasis on the matchups. In a normal season, a division win is the only guaranteed way into the playoffs. However, in this unusual year, the road less traveled, a second place finish, could be the Twins’ key to success.

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