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  • The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly with Byron Buxton’s Health

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Byron Buxton’s biggest goal for the season was to avoid a trip to the IL, but he wound up being unavailable at the season’s most critical juncture. Does that mean the Byron Buxton health plan failed?

    Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

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    Minnesota knew what it was getting into when they signed Byron Buxton to a long-term deal. His injury history is well documented, but his positive impact on the Twins roster is undeniable. He will make $9.1 million this season, and FanGraphs pegs his total value at nearly $32 million this season. The Twins utilized multiple strategies to try and keep Buxton healthy, but injuries impacted him throughout different parts of the season. Here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly with Buxton’s health this season. 

    The Good
    Buxton played in over 90 games for only the third time in his career, which helped him amass 4.0 WAR, which ranks second on the team. In two months during the season, he posted a slugging percentage north of .710 with an OPS of over 1.060. This performance helped him earn the starting center field position for the American League during the All-Star Game, and he helped the team by hitting a home run. It was one of the best portions of the season because the Twins were in first place, and they looked to be heading for the team’s third division title in four seasons. 

    The Bad
    Mixed in with the good were some sub-par performances as Buxton attempted to play through injury. His offensive production was a roller coaster ride as he’d be an otherworldly hitter for a stretch and then slump. From May 7-June 2, Buxton went 9-for-71 (.127 BA) in 19 games. This slump also included a career-worst 30 consecutive at-bats without a hit. He became a more patient hitter during the stretch as he drew eight walks compared to 16 strikeouts.  

    At the end of June, he had a 15-game stretch that saw him go 6-for-58 (.103 BA), but four of his six hits were home runs. In the season’s second half, it became evident that Buxton was struggling through injury to the point where the team needed to put him on the IL, and that’s when things turned ugly for the Twins.  

    The Ugly
    The Twins spent 108 days in first place in the AL Central, but the month of September has been brutal. Now, Minnesota is set to finish in third place in the division with hopes of ending with a .500 record. Buxton hasn’t been in the line-up since August 22, and the Twins have gone 11-17 during that stretch, which translates to a 0.392 winning percentage. Over the course of 162-games, that translates to a 98-loss season. Minnesota has been playing some of its most important games in September without Buxton in the line-up, and the team can feel his loss. He brings an energy to the roster that has been lacking over the last. 

    Wins in April and May can be as important as wins in September, but the stakes are much higher in the season’s final weeks. Buxton clearly helped the Twins out of the gate to establish themselves at the top of the division, but the team’s plan to keep him on the field didn’t work. Extra off days and time at designated hitter helped Buxton provide value in just over 90 games. Buxton is Minnesota’s best player, and the club’s success is tied to him being on the field for the team’s critical moments.   

    Should Buxton have gone on the IL earlier in the season? Would he have been available later in the season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

     

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    TheRealZach

    TheRealZach 3

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Let's be honest.  Buxton makes mauer look like lou Gehrig st this moment.  It is disappointing to watch a player who has talent so fragile.  Let's also not forget his average was beyond abysmal and he defines the three outcome player.  Find another subject, I believe with his talent we can label him a bust.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    6 hours ago, Beast said:

    This is no longer a Buxton issue.  This should not have contributed to the collapse.  It’s been long enough where everyone knows the situation.  I’m getting so tired of hearing about “bad luck,” when joe blow average sports fans can read these situations better than the front office.

    He more than earned his salary this year.  When he plays, he’s electric.  But, the FO needs to adjust and treat his presence in the lineup late in the year as a bonus.  It’s nothing short of incompetent that they didn’t have an adequate back up plan.  Attempting to spin it in any other way (not saying that’s what’s done here, but there’s about 50 articles in the last two weeks) is bordering on propaganda.

    Yes.  The situation we’re in is the front office’s fault.  I repeat.  It is their fault.

    Their top four OFers we're hurt. How much depth do you expect a team to have? Kiriloff, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler. Also, Lewis, who was part of the plan as a backup. So, five. Expecting them to have more planned than that is setting yourself up for disappointment. How many MLB regular OFers do you want in AAA on the forty man roster? 

    They got more than 2 war from Gordon as mostly an OFer.... And Wallner may be for real. That doesn't count Celestino, who is still young. 

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    Game7-91

    Game7-91 1,030

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Buck finished slightly ahead of his post-2017 seasonal average for games played. From that perspective, the health plan can claim a slight improvement, comparatively speaking.

    But it seems unlikely FO was looking for an incremental improvement.

    I love Buck. He is Twins' best player. But if the best player peaks at playing 55% of games in the period 2018-2022, the team needs to find another best player. Let Buck become the complementary piece his history says he is, and end the annual roller coaster of expecting 150 All Star caliber games from the man. The inevitable injuries are too disruptive, so more realistic planning around him seems appropriate. 

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    ashbury

    ashbury 48,546

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Game7-91 said:

    Buck finished slightly ahead of his post-2017 seasonal average for games played. From that perspective, the health plan can claim a slight improvement, comparatively speaking.

    But it seems unlikely FO was looking for an incremental improvement.

    It's arguably not even an improvement.  Counting up the complete games in CF according to b-r.com:

    2022: 43

    2021: 53

    2020: 34 (10/27 of a season)

    2019: 73

    Partial games in CF represent some type of disruption that day, for a talent like his.  Games spent batting as DH do not represent some kind of success for a plan, when there's no one else you'd rather see out there on defense and it isn't turning out to aid his injury resistance anyway.

    He's going backward in terms of the kind of durability a team with championship aspirations needs.

    I'm not questioning Buxton's heart, by any means.  But the facts have to be faced.

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    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 1,313

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    14 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

    Nothing ever changes with Buxton.  Year in and year out we talk about him and his injuries ad nauseum.  I've always wanted to see him during a full season.  We only see glimpses of him and at points during those glimpses he looks awesome.  At other points he looks like an average major league player.  The rather dubious Fangraphs listing his value at 32 million this year is both ridiculous and stunning.  It is unlikely Buxton will ever play a full season whether due to injuries or managements ever cautious  use of his playing time.  His fleecing of a 100 million contract for playing about 55% of the games over 8 years now, is shear genius on his part.

    If he played 90% of the games that contract would be $250 million and he'd have a different address.

     

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    rv78

    rv78 1,600

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    So Buxton is getting $9 million this year. Not a problem. Like so many here have pointed out, if he was a player that could stay healthy and play 150 games he'd be getting $30M. If you want to talk about someone getting over-paid - coincidently Sano also got paid $9M this year. 

    In my opinion, the problem with Buxton is he is always going to be a liability health-wise. He's played one full season, 2017 in his 8 year career. Yes, he's the best centerfielder in the game when healthy but not all of his injuries happen when he's playing in CF. His last two, if I'm not mistaken, were a broken hand being hit by a pitch and now a knee from sliding into 2nd base. At this point you have to continue to play him in CF every chance you get and you keep playing him there until he can't walk because an injury is going to happen regardless of how much you baby him and rest him. Throw the "rest" days away and use him. If this season proved anything it's that "rest" days don't help prevent injuries. If he isn't healthy enough to play defense and he's at DH then he needs to go on the IL for as long as it takes to get healthy again. The DH is for a player that can hit but isn't very good at playing defense. It's not for injured players who can't play defense or can't hit because of an injury.

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    Trov

    Trov 2,980

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The Twins will go as far as Buxton can carry them, which is not a good thing.  I like Buck, but to bet your team success on a guy that has never NEVER played a full season.  The closest was way back in 2017 he did 140, you could argue that was full season only missing 22 games.  Outside of that season he has yet to play more than 92 games, and even in the 60 game 2020 season he played 39.  He averages half the season sitting on the IL, or in this case rest instead of IL until he hit the IL.  

    He is great when he can play, and the contract is based on this issue, but we need to have a backup plan for when he gets hurt.  When he is out it hurts our defense and our lineup as we do not have a clear backup.  Hopefully we can figure that out this offseason. 

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    ashbury

    ashbury 48,546

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Trov said:

    He is great when he can play, and the contract is based on this issue, but we need to have a backup plan for when he gets hurt.  When he is out it hurts our defense and our lineup as we do not have a clear backup.  Hopefully we can figure that out this offseason. 

    This is a knotty problem for our, or any, FO to solve.  They need someone on the roster who is good enough to step in as a CFer for long stretches of time, and those don't grow on trees, moreover someone that good is probably good enough to be a starter in a corner outfield spot though probably with not enough bat to be more than an average asset when playing there.  So then (looking ahead to 2023) that cuts down on available playing time for the Larnachs and Wallners and perhaps Kirilloff (if 1B is needed for Arraez/Miranda due to their defensive shortcomings).  Decisions become interlocked in a hurry.

    In years past that CF backup had been Kepler.  I think for a time our buddy Jake Cave was viewed in that light as well.  Kep's still good in RF but has probably lost a step, and Cave is barely major league level by now.  For 2022 perhaps they thought Gilberto Celestino (the first to start in CF when Buxton DH'ed this April,I believe) was ready, but he wasn't and wound up barely replacement level, and while I'm not down on the kid yet because at age 23 there is still room for growth, in retrospect we can see this roster choice was more wishful thinking than accurate evaluation.

    A stud like Buxton is a rich team's luxury.  A team in the top revenue echelon can construct whatever competitive roster they want, and then "oh one more thing" add a Byron Buxton for $15M a year and if he's injured come playoff time they really haven't lost anything but if he's healthy then he might put a team over the top and he's worth whatever incentive salary he earns.

    I don't begrudge the Twins extending his contract as they did, though.  It would have been a marketing black eye to have not done it.

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    Dennesey55347

    Dennesey55347 41

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Win prob, WOBA, Win shares, win shur-a-bility, and WAR are fine stats on an excel spreadsheet. Bottom line: does Buxton generate hits at a below average pace: Yep. Does he steal bases consistently: NO. Walks? NO. Drive em in? Only with the HR. Take smart AB's? Rarely. Is he someone I'd send up for a big hit in a close/late game? No chance. His effect is felt on this team but I'd take an auditorium full of players over him right now. Funny thing is he will be a footnote when he retires. He's on pace to Crack 1000 k's around the same time as hitting 1000 combined RBI/runs/walks. Yikes.

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    darin617

    darin617 835

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 9/25/2022 at 8:21 AM, rwilfong86 said:

    He looks like he may be their DH of the future. It would stink since he is so elite as a defender but if the goal is to have his bat in the lineup that may be their only real option. 

    I have tried saying that and have gotten destroyed for it. Wouldn't you rather have let's say 150 games out of him at DH or 70-90 in the OF if lucky? Look how bad these lineups were since August. One solid bat could have kept Cleveland out of the top spot.

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    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 1,313

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 9/26/2022 at 7:17 AM, rv78 said:

    So Buxton is getting $9 million this year. Not a problem. Like so many here have pointed out, if he was a player that could stay healthy and play 150 games he'd be getting $30M. If you want to talk about someone getting over-paid - coincidently Sano also got paid $9M this year. 

    In my opinion, the problem with Buxton is he is always going to be a liability health-wise. He's played one full season, 2017 in his 8 year career. Yes, he's the best centerfielder in the game when healthy but not all of his injuries happen when he's playing in CF. His last two, if I'm not mistaken, were a broken hand being hit by a pitch and now a knee from sliding into 2nd base. At this point you have to continue to play him in CF every chance you get and you keep playing him there until he can't walk because an injury is going to happen regardless of how much you baby him and rest him. Throw the "rest" days away and use him. If this season proved anything it's that "rest" days don't help prevent injuries. If he isn't healthy enough to play defense and he's at DH then he needs to go on the IL for as long as it takes to get healthy again. The DH is for a player that can hit but isn't very good at playing defense. It's not for injured players who can't play defense or can't hit because of an injury.

    Not quite sure how this year PROVED that rest days don't help prevent injuries......

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    rv78

    rv78 1,600

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

    Not quite sure how this year PROVED that rest days don't help prevent injuries......

    Rocco gave out more rest days than I can ever remember to his everyday players. Injuries and days on the IL were among the highest in all of baseball. I see little to suggest it helped prevent them.

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    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 1,313

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    6 hours ago, rv78 said:

    Rocco gave out more rest days than I can ever remember to his everyday players. Injuries and days on the IL were among the highest in all of baseball. I see little to suggest it helped prevent them.

    Maybe.  But it PROVES nothing.

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    rv78

    rv78 1,600

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

    Maybe.  But it PROVES nothing.

    You have your opinion, I have mine. If you fail to see that there is no direct correlation then I can't help you there. 

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    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 1,313

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, rv78 said:

    You have your opinion, I have mine. If you fail to see that there is no direct correlation then I can't help you there. 

    PROOF is a scientific fact.  You have none.  Just your opinion.  Which you're welcome to.  Doesn't PROVE anything.

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    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 9,100

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    On 9/25/2022 at 1:57 PM, BD57 said:

    "The Plan" didn't work.   

    IMO, the only "Plan" which has any chance of working is Buxton figuring out what it is about his body which makes him so fragile & fix it.

    I know, some of the injuries are absolute flukey stuff which no one could guard against, but . . . I can't help believe there's something about his conditioning plan, etc. which renders him vulnerable, whether it's stretching, muscular imbalance, whatever.

    I'm sure the Twins & Buck are as frustrated as all of us fans are, and want to figure it out more than we hope it will happen.  Just wish it would.

    The facts

    the plan was to have Buxton play 100 games this season.

    Buxton appeared in 92 and according to Ash, he only played 43 complete games in CF, and something like 79 complete games total. They came up short to plan. I don’t think this is necessarily a “failure” though.

     

    2022 was tied for second most games played in Buxton’s career. 3rd in fWAR, 2nd in wRC+, 1rst in hits, 1rst in HR, 1rst in K/BB.

    Buxton had a very successful season compared to his career, even if he didn’t get the desired durability from “the plan” it was still a significant incremental improvement 

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    BD57

    BD57 311

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 10/1/2022 at 9:56 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    The facts

    the plan was to have Buxton play 100 games this season.

    Buxton appeared in 92 and according to Ash, he only played 43 complete games in CF, and something like 79 complete games total. They came up short to plan. I don’t think this is necessarily a “failure” though.

     

    2022 was tied for second most games played in Buxton’s career. 3rd in fWAR, 2nd in wRC+, 1rst in hits, 1rst in HR, 1rst in K/BB.

    Buxton had a very successful season compared to his career, even if he didn’t get the desired durability from “the plan” it was still a significant incremental improvement 

    If "the plan" was to have the guy you're building your team around play only 100 games - 61.7% of your team's games - then that "plan" had to be based upon Buck's health being compromised & the goal being "get as much as we can from him this year in light of his health being compromised."

    But . . . there's no way that should be "the plan" for a healthy, 5 tool outfielder.

    IMO, every front office in the game would want a  generic "star" with Buck's talents on the field for at least 140 games.

    Which is the issue with Buck . . . will his health ever allow him to play the volume of games which his talent says he should play?

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