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In recent years, there are plenty of examples of players who have been unable to control the strike zone. After fast starts, they fell victim to several sophomore slumps.
- In 2013, Oswaldo Arcia walked 23 times and struck out 117 times in 378 plate appearances.
- In 2014, Oswaldo Arcia walked 31 times and struck out 127 times in 410 plate appearances.
- In 2014, Danny Santana walked 19 times and struck out 98 times in 430 plate appearances.
- In 2014, Kennys Vargas walked 12 times and struck out 63 times in 234 plate appearances.
Those are all certainly not good, but there were some real impressive (or unimpressive) strikeout-to-walk ratios in 2015.
- Danny Santana - 6 walks, 68 strikeouts, 277 plate appearances.
- Kennys Vargas - 9 walks, 54 strikeouts, 184 plate appearances.
- Eddie Rosario - 15 walks, 118 strikeouts, 474 plate appearances.
- Byron Buxton - 6 walks, 44 strikeouts, 138 plate appearances.
Byron Buxton is currently at four walks and 49 strikeouts in 116 plate appearances in 2016 with the Twins.
In his time with the Twins at the start of the 2016 season, Eddie Rosario walked just three times and struck out 31 times in 121 plate appearances. Rosario was sent to Rochester on May 18th. In his first 19 games with the Red Wings, he struck out 12 times and did not walk. At all. He was hitting .321 despite a slow start, but in this situation, control of the strike zone had to be part of the evaluation. Continuing the trend of swinging erratically at everything just wasn’t going to cut it.
In his last nine games, Rosario has five walks and four strikeouts in 40 plate appearance. It is a small sample size of course, but it is a sign of improvement, and to me, that’s all we should expect.
Eddie Rosario is never going to be Joe Mauer, but then again, very few are. Consider that in Mauer’s first nine MLB seasons, he walked 555 times and struck out just 475 times. While that trend changed over the past three seasons (188 BB, 297 K), he still had over 60 walks in each season. In 2016, he is on pace for over 80 walks again.
Is it fair to expect a player like Rosario who is ultra-aggressive to become more patient? Is that even a realistic request? How would an organization even go about trying to make that happen?
It isn’t as simple as saying, “Eddie, take two strikes every plate appearance. Get used to what is called a strike and what isn’t.”
To some degree, a hitter is what he is by the time he reaches age 23 or 24.
When I was in Cedar Rapids, I asked Kernels manager Jake Mauer about how to help these types of aggressive hitters. He went back to our youth for a reminder.
“You know, (Kirby) Puckett was a ‘bad-ball hitter,’ and I think Puckett knew himself. He knew which balls he could drive. If you’ve got a guy that ‘swings at everything,’ you don’t want to tell him to take, but I think they need to learn what they can drive.”
Mauer discussed the type of conversation that he would typically have with such a hitter. It starts by helping them realize and learn what pitches they can drive.
“I know you can hit this pitch, but is this a pitch you can drive? If the answer is No, well, then you shouldn’t swing at it. If the answer is Yes, well, then go ahead.”
In Cedar Rapids, Mauer is working with a variety of players. He’s got a guy like Zander Wiel who played at Vanderbilt who isn’t going to be fazed by a big moment under the lights. He’s also got two 19-year-olds, Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez. Palacios broke out last season in the rookie leagues. Arraez played well in the GCL and then got exposure in the Venezuelan Winter League, playing against veterans.
LaMonte Wade fits into the Joe Mauer category of pitch recognition. The Twins drafted him in the ninth round last year out of Maryland. In his pro debut last season, mostly at Elizabethton, he walked 47 times with 36 strikeouts. In 261 plate appearances with the Kernels this year, he has walked 44 times with just 27 strikeouts. While he has struggled in his last ten games (3-35) to drop his average to .280, his on-base percentage remains .410. And even in those ten games, he has eight walks to just five strikeouts.
I asked him about his approach at the plate and if it is something learned. Wade said, “It’s definitely taught. It also has a lot to do with watching the batters in front of you, knowing the umpire’s strike zone. It starts in batting practice, getting your mind right and making sure you’re not swinging at every pitch.”
As Chattanooga Lookouts hitting coach Tommy Watkins said that’s good but it takes more too. “It's very tough because it's hard to simulate live pitching, but I think not swinging at everything in BP is good place to start.”
Wade and I discussed this topic quite a bit and I’m not going to give away all of his secrets, but it is quite evident that he goes into every single plate appearance with a plan. “0-0 and advantage counts, I’m looking for a ball middle-away, trying to hit the ball the other way. Obviously with two strikes, you’re just trying to battle. Just looking out over the plate and adjusting when it comes inside.”
He said that he learned some things in college at the University of Maryland as well. Again, I’m not going to give away the strategy, but it involves “hunting elevated fastballs up over the plate.”
At no point in my conversation with Wade did he mention looking to walk. The goal shouldn’t be to walk, but to get on base. Know the strike zone and attack pitches that you can drive. If it’s not there, let it go and take the walk.
But it has to start early as a player ages it gets more and more difficult to become a patient hitter. And of course, as you move up the competition only becomes better and knows how to attack your weaknesses.
As Mauer said, “Those guys in the big leagues they’re pretty good. They can expose holes pretty quick.”
And that’s what we’ve seen to this point. There are more scouting reports now than even ten years ago. Advanced statistical analysis makes hitting much more difficult, and it was already difficult from the start.
Rosario, Santana, and Vargas all got off to fast starts despite their inability to control the strike zone. It caught up to them in Year 2 when pitchers had more information. It is now up to them to make some adjustments to get back to the big leagues and hopefully experience more success. It is very unlikely that they ever become patient and frequent walkers, but improvement will be vital. Understanding the strike zone and their strengths is the key.
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