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The free agent market for starting pitchers next year isn’t quite a desert but it could be a distant cousin of one. The market lacks the big flashy names of last offseason that saw Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Zack Wheeler become available. Instead, this offseason’s market will be littered with assorted #2 guys at best in players like Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, and Jake Odorizzi. All are fine pitchers but more as complementary pieces to a rotation that already has a bona-fide stud leading the way.
The Twins may have that guy in José Berríos but the fact that that is a disputed take among Twins fans speaks to the idea that he isn’t quite at that studly level yet. Bauer, however, has been at that level. Using fWAR, his 2018 season (5.8 fWAR) would be the second best season by a Twins starter over the last decade. Part of that is due to the Twins’ inability to develop a starting pitcher of value for much of that time, but that’s why free agency exists in the first place. Can’t develop them? Then go buy them.
Beyond Bauer’s on-field ability, his work with Driveline Baseball and desire to push the pitching meta of baseball as far as it can go would essentially make him an extra pitching coach in the dugout. In fact, it was this quality that connected Bauer and Derek Falvey when Falvey was with the Indians who had plucked the pitcher from the Diamondbacks. The familiarity is already there.
Now, the thing about Bauer is that you’re getting more than just his ability. Bauer is one of the more outspoken players in baseball and comes with an eccentric personality. Unfortunately, this also comes with political statements that will not be specified for the purpose of focusing on strictly baseball, but can be found with a Google search.
This is where the prospect of trading for Bauer becomes hazy. Yes, he would undoubtedly make the team better, but should we advocate for acquiring talent over all else? Do we not also want to be rooting for the best people possible or is it “just win baby”?
If you only value the product on the field, then Bauer should absolutely be your first target on the free agent market. His ability combined with his playoff experience will make him a top target for most teams but the Twins could be an attractive choice given the Falvey connection and their contention window. Netting him would stabilize a rotation that will likely lose Jake Odorizzi in free agency but will have Berríos, Kenta Maeda, and Michael Pineda returning.
If Bauer is absolutely off the table for you, then you will likely have to settle for either one of the aforementioned second-tier starters or a Maeda-type through trade (maybe Syndergaard will be cheap coming off TJ surgery). You’d also be justified in using his on-field performance on top of his antics off the field as his reason for avoiding him. He has merely been a passable starter outside his monster 2018 campaign (his second lowest season ERA is 4.18). That number is much more in line with the Robbie Rays and Mike Minors of the world who will also be available and probably less sought after.
This will likely be the turmoil that both the fans and front office members face next offseason. The starting pitching need will still likely be obvious and they may not want to deal another top prospect like they did to acquire Maeda. Bauer will be the top free agent option available and signing him would, on paper, likely push them even further into being World Series contenders. Is that worth it?
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