Series Preview: Reeling in the Fish

Brief Overview:

The Twins continue their jaunt through the NL East with a trio of non-DH games. These two clubs haven’t met since the 2016 season and Miami traveled to Target Field in that action. The Marlins have the worst record in the National League and own a -97-run differential. They’re coming off a series win (3 of 4) against a mediocre Arizona Diamondbacks team, and they should be ripe for a sweep.

What They Do Well:

When you’re going this bad it’s hard to find significant positives. If there’s a bright spot though, it’s that this club fields the ball at a league average level. They rank 14th in defensive WAR and have posted a positive 6 DRS on the season.

Though it hasn’t had a great impact in statistical output at this point, the Marlins have done a decent job of running out fresh faces. They’ve given chances to more than a handful of rookies, and for a bad team looking for an identity, allowing guys a spot to step up is hardly a bad ask. If we want to dig deep, Derek Jeter did remove the home run sculpture at Marlins Park too, so that could be considered a positive.

What They Do Not Do Well:

This is where the list gets long. Miami is 29th in offensive fWAR. Their hitters have combined to produce just 1.3 fWAR on the season and there’s no category in which they can hang their hat. At 87 home runs, the Twins have doubled them up and then some. No one takes less walks than the Marlins and their .124 ISO is dead last by 25 points.

On the pitching front things aren’t as futile with the group being the 20th ranked unit in the majors. Caleb Smith won’t go in this series, but Minnesota will face All-Star Sandy Alcantara. The pen ranks 27th in the majors and that was with the inclusion of Sergio Romo. The Bomba Squad will need to pick their spots however, as Miami gives up the 24th fewest HR/9. Marlins Park is also 28th in Park Factors for HR in 2019 (one spot behind Target Field), so the confines don’t exactly produce an optimal environment.

Individuals Of Note:

Brian Anderson is one of the budding starts on this club. At 26-years-old he’s still got some youth on his side. He’s produced 1.8 fWAR in 103 games this year and leads the team with 15 homers. At third base he’s been an exceptional defender posting a 9 DRS in just shy of 570 innings played. Miami is still looking for guys to build around, but this is a player that should stick for the time being.

On the bump it’s Alcantara. Opposing Jose Berrios in game two of the series, the former Cardinals prospect will look to stifle a great Twins lineup. Alcantara was acquired from St. Louis in the Marcell Ozuna deal and is in his first full big-league season at age 23. He hasn’t posted the strikeout numbers you’d expect, and his fastball has already lost some velocity. That said, if there’s a piece with workable upside in the rotation this is it.

Recent History:

Playing so sporadically these two clubs were dramatically different the last time they saw each other. Back in 2016 the Twins took two of three at Target Field but did so with a -3-run differential. This will be another one-off situation but should provide Minnesota with some nice opportunity.

Recent Trajectories:

The Twins have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games but are coming off a series victory over the White Sox. Miami has also gone 5-5 in their last ten, with a two-game winning streak. They are coming off taking three of four against the Diamondbacks.

Pitching Matchups:

Tuesday: Odorizzi vs Gallen

Wednesday: Berrios vs Alcantara

Thursday: Pineda vs Yamamoto

Ending Thoughts:

At this point the schedule has begun to flip in the Twins favor and lesser opponents are rearing their heads. Taking the series from Chicago was a must, and so to is this one in South Beach. A sweep would be nice but getting at least two while the Cleveland Indians play host to the Houston Astros needs to happen. The Twins haven’t swept a series since May 26th so ending that drought would be a very good look. Give me Minnesota in all three tilts.