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In this age of multiple wild card entrants, the vast majority of clubs around baseball are fancying themselves postseason contenders. This makes the market more favorable for teams in such a position as Minnesota's. Trade partners will generally give up a bit more to acquire help in June than July, for obvious reasons, and the Twins have no real reason to wait around.
Unfortunately, in accordance with the "Total System Failure" framework of this 2016 season, nearly every player who looked like a potentially attractive trade chip has scuffled and drained his value. This is particularly painful in a few key spots, as we'll discuss below.
It's not all bad, though. There won't be any blockbuster swap that brings back elite talent, but there are a few intriguing possibilities to be considered. Let's break down the roster and see where things stand as we head into June.
CATCHER: It's possible that someone could take interest in Kurt Suzuki as a backup but the Twins have no usable alternative to fall back on and Suzuki's .570 OPS wouldn't fetch much anyway. This is a position where the Twins should solely be looking to add, not subtract.
INFIELD: Eduardo Nunez is the hot name here. He is enjoying a very strong year, with a .314/.347/.482 slash line, and while it seems a bit flukish, he has continued to hit into late May and is also coming off a 2015 season in which he posted a career-high OPS. He doesn't turn 29 for a month. Combine the clear upward offensive trajectory with his defensive versatility, and Nunez could garner some real interest. Trevor Plouffe will be much discussed because he's on a one-year commitment and dealing him would open third base for Miguel Sano, but unfortunately he's playing terribly. Would Terry Ryan ship out Plouffe, a former first-round pick and a core veteran staple, for a mid-level prospect? At this point it's not unthinkable. Parting with Brian Dozier or Eduardo Escobar would open a spot for Jorge Polanco but neither has done anything to create a market.
OUTFIELD: Ryan won't even think about giving up Sano, Byron Buxton or Max Kepler, and rightfully so. Trading Eddie Rosario over the offseason would have been a good idea if the opportunity arose, but now he has turned into a pumpkin. I actually think Danny Santana might attract some suitors as a bench piece because he can play several positions and offers plenty of speed, but he won't bring back anything special.
ROTATION: The only rotation members who would have any credibility as trade candidates are Tyler Duffey and Ervin Santana, but the Twins can't really afford to lose either of them at this point considering how things have played out with the rest of the starters. It would have been really nice if Ricky Nolasco could have kept up his April pace and made himself appealing to a team needing a fifth starter, but alas, it looks like the only way he's leaving is by DFA.
BULLPEN: This one hurts. There are many contenders looking for help in the bullpen, including the Red Sox (who just lost key setup man Carson Smith for the season) and the Rangers (who are second in the West but have the worst bullpen ERA in the AL). Depressingly, every reliever that might have brought back a decent haul has inspired no confidence. At the top of that list is Kevin Jepsen, who is pitching as poorly as he ever has, because of course. Trevor May has melted down this month, as has Ryan Pressly to a lesser extent. Michael Tonkin doesn't have a big-league track record. Fernando Abad has been the bullpen's best performer but as a lefty specialist with an uneven history, he's not the kind of arm that commands a meaningful return.
SUMMARY
Even in circumstances like these, where major shakeups are warranted, it's simply not good strategy to be trading assets with depressed value. That rules out the idea of flipping someone like Dozier or Glen Perkins (if he ever gets healthy). No one is taking those contracts and giving up anything. Nunez looks like a nice chip if he keeps hitting, and Santana might bring back a Single-A type, but there aren't many other opportunities to build a marketplace.
Plouffe is going to be the most interesting case. On the one hand, it would be a shame to sell low on someone who's been a very solid player over the years. On the other hand, Sano needs to get out of right field, and it's not clear Plouffe is in the team's plans beyond 2016. It might end up being a "take what you can get" scenario.
As it happens, the defending champs just lost third baseman Mike Moustakas for the year to a torn ACL. It wouldn't be a bad thing for Plouffe to get on a hot streak, as he is wont to do.
What are your thoughts? If you were in the GM's chair, what would be your approach as the trade deadline draws nearer?
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