Reevaluating Minnesota’s Draft Picks: 2010-2015

I would have to say Stewart was the biggest swing and miss as he was the highest pick that didn't make it of the group, and there were others taken after him (in first and comp rounds) in addition to Judge that have made it to the majors and performed well--Austin Meadows, Hunter Renfroe, Tim Anderson, Sean Manaea, Corey Knebel, etc.  Tyler Jay would be a close second.

That was depressing.  How about looking at the second round.  Maybe we did better there.  Wimmers, Steward, Jay - no wonder our pitching staff was so bad. 

If the Twins had drafted Judge, he'd be a slap hitter.

I am never a fan of looking at MLB drafts on who we took versus who was taken some time after.  It is even worse when you use large gaps, like top 5 to end of first round.  The reason I say this is there are many things that go into a decision to draft someone, and without looking into all those reasons it is hard to really compare.  

That being said, I would agree the 2011 and 2014 drafts as good comparison type drafts. The reason I say that is the gap is not large, and the players played same positions, which meant the analysis of the team clearly was off. I actually remember the 2014 when Turner was talked as high as 5 for the Twins as well.  

Now, Mitchell and Story were not 100% comparison because Story was high school pick, and Mitchell was college, but as point out many were not high on Mitchell and questioned the pick at the time.  I know for the 2014 draft a knock on Turner was he was not expected to stay at SS, which finally has happened him shifting but he has done very well for himself in the majors, while Gordon has barely played at this level, but similar to 2011, they are flipped flopped in high school versus college.  Gordon was projected to be higher floor and stay at SS, but everyone was wrong on that. 

For 2010, it was clearly a miss, and I think I recall he was considered the same pick and we missed out on some top HS arms that panned out, at least a little in the comp round.  But to compare a college pitcher to a HS OF, it is hard to compare.  Yes, we could have, and if could do again should have drafted Yelish, however, we have no clue if he would have developed the same either. 

2012, yes Seagar has higher WAR, but I would not say we got that one wrong, and no one was thinking Seagar was the number 1 pick in that draft, like Buxton was.  If Buck could stay healthy he would have higher WAR than Seagar.

2013 comparing a guy that was top 5 rated to a guy that went comp round is just hard to say we should have taken the comp round guy.  Sure, he has panned out well, and knowing what you know now most teams would have taken Judge over why they did, but it is not like everyone was saying Judge should go early, and we missed. 

2015 we clearly blew that, but again Bueler was missed by many.  There was 7 pitchers taken between Jay and Bueler, so again it was not like we were most likely between the two.  

That all being said, that was the old FO and they have been out and for good reason, they were missing more often than hitting.  However, most GM's actually miss, very few will hit on most picks. 

Trea Turner was scouted as a superior player than Gordon. However, the Twins had missed badly with Levi Michael from UNC and were hesitant to go with another similar player from North Carolina (NCState). That was a miss. I'm not sure what was so enticing about Tyler Jay. Big Ten baseball has not been as good as the ACC, SEC, PAC, or other warm weather conferences.

Biggest miss has to be Tyler Jay, I think. As soon as he got to AA hitters, he just couldn't compete any longer and was far too hittable (even when he got moved back to the 'pen). The great experiment totally flopped. I had in my head that he'd been injured a lot, but looking at his stats, that's not really true. he just wasn't very good. major bust.

Stewart was a miss to be sure, but at least made it to the majors with 2 clubs and had some minor league success. but he never consistently got enough Ks, struggled with control, and didn't become the big flamethrower that we all initially thought he would be. I think he's the worst-case scenario people see when looking at Chase Petty, but Petty was drafted so much lower that the risk on a high school pitcher is significantly mitigated.

the Levi michael pick looks a little rough too, but again: 30th pick, not 6th. didn't hit well enough to make up for not being elite defensively, probably got close to getting a cup of coffee in 2018-2019, but in the end just wasn't an MLB player. he's a miss, but not really a bust.

Yeah, pretty depressing, Buxton is the only one that really worked out. Which causes me to wonder why the Twins were so bad at this? Has the Twins been so bad at evaluating talent, developing talent or both? Consequently, it seems like the Dodgers were able to have success at both ends to produce a successful major leaguer.

I think the baseball draft has much more variance and is a combination of scouting and luck - maybe looking at a draft as a whole would give a better picture to see if front office changes were necessary. Maybe there's no excuse for Tyler Jay, but extra points should be given for 2012 when the Twins selected Buxton, Berrios, and Taylor Rodgers. The 2013 pick of Kohl Stewart could be said to be redeemed by getting Mitch Garver. 

Having a 3-year stretch of 1st round picks that resulted in Stewart, Gordon, and Jay was a really painful stretch for the organization. Nobody expects every 1st round pick to work out, but whiffing on 3 consecutive top 6 picks was a disaster.

The Gordon year I was high on Aaron Nola and was hoping he'd be the pick (which would have been a homerun). The Stewart/Jay years I didn't have a strong preference, so I probably can't complain too much. I guess if I had to pick one year as being the worst it would be the Gordon pick since I thought Nola was by far the best choice.

6 hours ago, Trov said:

and if could do again should have drafted Yelish, however, we have no clue if he would have developed the same either. 

Tyler Jay was the most painful. But as Trov says, no way to predict if a player would have developed similarly in different org. Would love to have the Dodger version of Buehler on Twins. But 17 other teams passed on him too. Besides, I have a hunch Twins would not have developed the LAD version. We did develop Lamont Wade from that draft...just too bad we didnt know it.

Draft picks in baseball are tough. Rooker, Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato, ... the book on these guys has not been written yet. Petty and Miller are barely brushing their teeth.

I know the draft is a crapshoot, but it shouldn't be this much of a crapshoot. To think only one of these picks turned into a replacement level player or better at the MLB level... 

These drafts are the reason the Twins have been brutal.  4 out of the 6 were complete misses.  Gordon is jury is still kind of out on but he certainly is no all-star caliber player.  The first few years of Buxton in the bigs were brutal at the plate.  Now it seems like he has it figured out but can't stay on the field.  All and all just a horrendous string of picks.