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  • Randy Dobnak and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season


    Cody Christie

    After signing an extension this winter, things couldn’t have gone much worse for Randy Dobnak. What can he prove in his remaining starts this season?
     

    Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

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    Randy Dobnak had to be feeling pretty good about himself entering spring training this year. The Twins had given him some financial certainty by signing him to a five-year extension worth a guaranteed $9.25 million and a chance to earn close to $30 million if the team picks up his three option years. His spring performance also stood out as he unveiled a new pitch.

    Minnesota’s front office worked with Dobnak in the spring to adjust his slider. By moving his hand position, he can get more break on his pitch to allow it to dip out of the zone. The results were tremendous as he posted a 0.57 ERA and a 0.38 WHIP while striking out 19 batters in 15 2/3 innings. Dobnak seemed poised for a breakout season. 

    The Twins had signed two veteran pitchers, JA Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to fill out the rotation, and this meant Dobnak moved to the bullpen for Opening Day. Unfortunately, this is where his trouble began. He made eight appearances as a reliever and posted a 10.47 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with 13 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings. It was pretty that Dobnak wasn’t a reliever, and by early May, he was headed to St. Paul to be stretched out as a starter.

    Dobnak returned to the big leagues a couple of weeks later and had his most impressive start of the year. Over six shutout innings, he scattered three hits and struck out five Cleveland batters. In his next five appearances (23 1/3 innings), he allowed 25 earned runs, including seven home runs with a 9 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio. He pitched with a fake fingernail against the Yankees, and they tagged him for eight earned runs.

    Dobnak tried to pitch through a finger injury by the middle of June, but he ended up on the IL. At the time, it was listed as a right middle finger strain. In early July, there were reports of a setback in his rehab as he felt discomfort while attempting to throw. He slowly ramped it back up and made a couple of rehab starts before returning to the Twins in September.

    Remember that new and improved slider from spring training? Opponents have posted a .333 BA and a .815 SLG when facing that pitch. He has thrown the pitch over a third of the time, posting a healthy 37.3 Whiff%. However, he has given up 11 extra-base hits, including seven home runs in 54 at-bats using his slider. The magic he showed this spring just hasn’t materialized with the pitch. 

    Dobnak has been a feel-good story over the last two years with the Twins. He took an unconventional route to the big leagues, and the Twins rewarded his performance with a long-term contract. Minnesota needs as much rotation help as possible for 2022, so the Twins can hope Dobnak helps the cause next season.

    For now, Dobnak can hope his last few starts show a glimmer of hope. That way, he can end his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season on a high note.

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    1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    I really don't understand the usage argument. The guy did almost the exact same thing in '19, coming off an entire summer of starting. Suddenly a handful of starts in ST and subsequent move to the bullpen derails him? Eh....color me skeptical. 

    As far as injury goes, if we want to erase the two games in TX, even the Yankees game (though I'd argue he was already getting bludgeoned prior to the nail tearing) we can, but the overall picture isn't any prettier. 

    I think the issue with Dobnak has been......Dobnak. 

    That's entirely possible, my main point is that he was jerked around enough that he deserves a real, healthy look before making any decisions.

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    1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    That's entirely possible, my main point is that he was jerked around enough that he deserves a real, healthy look before making any decisions.

    Idk if I'd say he's been jerked around. Bullpen innings (in fairness, struggles too) aren't uncommon early in starters careers. If the Twins staff wasn't a total dumpster fire this year, or they weren't starved for even mediocre internal options to start games, are they handing him that extension, or letting him rack up 40+ IP of pretty awful baseball this season? He pitched himself out of the rotation last year, albeit in a short/weird season, and he hasn't shown anything this year to suggest that wasn't the right move.

    Look, I'm not saying they need to give up on him, but we can reel it in a bit on Dobnak.

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    22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    If the FO makes decisions based on hot spring training stats....that would be bad. 

    Unfortunately, Twins FO shares your ideology. Cave had a terrible spring training and they still went with him, having nothing positive to go on.

    On the other hand unfortunately, Detroit didn't follow your ideology and went with Akil Baddo even though he had a good spring.

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    3 hours ago, Minny505 said:

    Bonus points for using the word "abstrusity". Thank you for introducing that one to my lexicon.

    Yeah, I found "abstrusity" a little obscure and hard to understand. Then I looked it up. 

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    45 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

    On the other hand unfortunately, Detroit didn't follow your ideology and went with Akil Baddo even though he had a good spring.

    Detroit kept Baddoo on the roster because they had to keep him or literally pay the Twins to take him back. The good spring was just a bonus.

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    1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Unfortunately, Twins FO shares your ideology. Cave had a terrible spring training and they still went with him, having nothing positive to go on.

    On the other hand unfortunately, Detroit didn't follow your ideology and went with Akil Baddo even though he had a good spring.

    Those aren't even comparable situations at all. Not even close.

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    The issue with Dobnak is not how he’s been used or injuries…it’s that he’s eminently hittable.

    The only reasons to give him more chances are his age and the desperate pitching situation. Even the Twins can afford to eat the guaranteed portion of that contract. And I expect they will if Dobnak doesn’t turn a corner next year.

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    On 9/7/2021 at 12:53 PM, Doctor Gast said:

    They did the same thing at CF. Putting inexperienced players there instead of initially going with our only MLB experienced true CF that was hot coming out of spring training.

    You don’t mean Keon Broxton, do you?

    The Keon Broxton that spent all season proving that he can’t hit AAA pitching? The Keon Broxton that was released by the Saints and is now 0 for 4 with a walk and 3 K’s on Milwaukee’s rookie league team?

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    On 9/7/2021 at 5:27 PM, Mike Sixel said:

    You think signing Simmons was inexplicable? 

    In a salary cap league (the one that the Twins self-impose); yes it was inexplicable. Because it surely came out of the pitching budget. With our first half pitching, you could have had Ozzie Smith and the Holy Trinity at short and it wouldn't matter. Simmons is a 1.0 WAR guy. If teams like the Twins spend $10 million per incremental win, they are doomed. Front offices are paid to understand this stuff. So was it inexplicable? Yes. It was inexplicable.  

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    14 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

    In a salary cap league (the one that the Twins self-impose); yes it was inexplicable. Because it surely came out of the pitching budget. With our first half pitching, you could have had Ozzie Smith and the Holy Trinity at short and it wouldn't matter. Simmons is a 1.0 WAR guy. If teams like the Twins spend $10 million per incremental win, they are doomed. Front offices are paid to understand this stuff. So was it inexplicable? Yes. It was inexplicable.  

    He wasn't expected to be a 1.0 fWAR guy.........who would you have put at SS? I'm guessing 99% of the people in MLB and this site would disagree with you, btw.

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    19 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    Detroit kept Baddoo on the roster because they had to keep him or literally pay the Twins to take him back. The good spring was just a bonus.

    Did they change how Rule 5 works? I thought the drafting team paid a price, and then if they don't want to keep him they offer him back for half price, assuming he clears waivers.

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    1 minute ago, ashbury said:

    Did they change how Rule 5 works? I thought the drafting team paid a price, and then if they don't want to keep him they offer him back for half price, assuming he clears waivers.

    You’re right, I had the payers reversed. What I meant was that giving back Baddoo out of ST was Detroit essentially throwing away a little bit of money. 

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    58 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

    In a salary cap league (the one that the Twins self-impose); yes it was inexplicable. Because it surely came out of the pitching budget. With our first half pitching, you could have had Ozzie Smith and the Holy Trinity at short and it wouldn't matter. Simmons is a 1.0 WAR guy. If teams like the Twins spend $10 million per incremental win, they are doomed. Front offices are paid to understand this stuff. So was it inexplicable? Yes. It was inexplicable.  

    Except the expectation was that Simmons would be a pitching assist player. His signing was primarily to supplement the entire pitching staff after several seasons of terrible infield defense. 

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    2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    He wasn't expected to be a 1.0 fWAR guy.........who would you have put at SS? I'm guessing 99% of the people in MLB and this site would disagree with you, btw.

    The Twins are the amongst the last to eat at the free agent trough because of climate, high state taxes, and thirty years of play-off irrelevancy . Twenty nine teams passed on him, so I am 100% sure that 99% of MLB would not disagree with me.  

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    2 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

    The Twins are the amongst the last to eat at the free agent trough because of climate, high state taxes, and thirty years of play-off irrelevancy . Twenty nine teams passed on him, so I am 100% sure that 99% of MLB would not disagree with me.  

    Did 29 teams pass on every free agent the twins have signed? I think we are just going to disagree here, which is fine with me. 

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    11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Did 29 teams pass on every free agent the twins have signed? I think we are just going to disagree here, which is fine with me. 

    Yeah.  The Twins were expected to be strong contenders this year.  I doubt they had any trouble getting free agents to answer the phone.  Simmons was signed later, but not super-late.  He probably had other offers that he passed on and was simply holding out for the best deal.

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