Proving It at the Trop

Devin Smeltzer got the call for his big-league debut against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night at Target Field. His promotion was in part because Michael Pineda needed an IL stint, but also because the front office decided to juggle the rotation a bit. Without changing up the order, each starter was bumped a day allowing Minnesota’s top four arms to square off with one of the best teams in the American League.

The Rays currently sit at 33-19 and have largely been led by unexpected performances, and pitching that has been top notch. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell has been great again, and even in losing Tyler Glasnow after an amazing start, they’ve gotten strong contributions from Charlie Morton, Ryne Stank, and Yonny Chirinos. The complete pitching staff boasts baseball’s best fWAR at 9.3. The Yankees come in second at 8.6 and Minnesota lands in the top four at 8.1. Tampa’s 2.93 ERA is the lowest in baseball and they strand runners at a big league-leading 79.1% rate.

No matter what avenue you explore, this Rays pitching staff is getting the job done. Maybe most integral against the powerful Twins is that 11.3% HR/FB rate, the second lowest total in baseball. Tampa hurlers are the only team in the majors allowing less than one HR/9 (0.88) and they’ll need to flex that metric against Minnesota’s bats.

Zeroing in solely on the bullpen, Tampa owns the third lowest ERA, second lowest HR/9, and a HR/FB rate only trumped by the Athletics. To put it simply, getting past the starter isn’t the only challenge here, and sending the ball over the fence is beyond a tough ask.

Then there’s the likely place balls will land when the Twins hot bats come into St. Petersburg, the outfield. Tampa’s outfield is second in baseball with 19 DRS, one spot ahead of the Twins and their 17 DRS. Kevin Kiermaier is maybe the only player in the sport that can hold a candle to Byron Buxton, and he’s been flanked most often by Avisail Garcia and Tommy Pham, who have both put up strong metrics of their own.

So, what does this all mean? Well, the Twins are going to need production from their guys on the mound, and they’ll need top notch defensive efforts facing the fifth most potent offense (in terms of fWAR) across baseball. On top of that though, they’ve blasted their way through the competition and that’s where the Rays keep opponents at bay. Baldelli’s crew hasn’t been free swinging, and they aren’t up there with many empty at-bats, but will the big blasts come and how often will we see them?

You can’t deny that the Twins are in the driver’s seat for the AL Central Division title. They aren’t going to look ahead to the postseason at this point, and the results of this Tampa series likely will have no bearing on October baseball. For an early season test of the working blueprint though, this is the narrative to keep an eye on.