Previewing Spring Training Battles: The Last Rotation Spot

In the coming days we will look at the battle for left field, as well as the last bench spot. But first, let’s take a look at the candidates for the last spot in the rotation. On Thursday, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson said the Twins have an offer out to veteran right hander Matt Shoemaker who, I don’t believe, would be a lock for the fifth spot if he was signed by the club.

Shoemaker, who has been very good when healthy, hasn’t had a healthy season in four years so there is inherent risk in signing him that will still make for an intriguing battle between the current options on the Twins roster. If Shoemaker does sign with the club, I would make him the odds on favorite to win the job but that’s not a guarantee ... you might recall that the Twins signed Anibal Sanchez in 2018 and released him a month later after struggling through Spring Training. Wolfson stated that there were multiple teams interested in Shoemaker, so if he does decide to sign somewhere else then who will compete for that fifth spot?

Randy Dobnak

After a productive start to his career in 2019 and the first half of 2020, the wheels really fell off for Dobnak which led to getting sent down to the alternate site and being left off the postseason roster last year. I’ve always been a bit wary of Dobnak’s production as it seemed too good to be true, which you can read about in more detail here, and have the same concerns heading into this season. His Savant profile from 2020, seen below, is fairly concerning and moreover his most oft used pitch (fastball/sinker) was normally spotted really well in the bottom corners of the zone yet batters had a xwOBA of .342 against the pitch.

All of that said, out of the undermentioned options the Twins have, Dobnak does boast the strongest track record, and the reconfiguration of the infield plays right into his strengths. You see, over the last two seasons, Dobnak has the second best ground ball percentage of all starters who have pitched 70 innings or more and would benefit greatly from the addition of Simmons and Polanco sliding over to second base. If the Twins don’t get Shoemaker, Dobnak will probably be the favorite to be the fifth starter in 2021.

Lewis Thorpe

Thorpe had a very rough 2020 season both personally and professionally, which was detailed by Twins Daily own Cody Pirkl back in October, and this was following a 2019 where he posted an ERA of 6.18 over 27 2/3 innings pitched. I guess you could say Thorpe has had a rough start to his 44 inning career to this point, BUT we should not forget that he is only 25-years-old and just two years ago was the Twins #11 rated prospect by Major League Baseball. Furthermore, he peaked as the Twins #9 prospect in 2014 and his scouting report read “... Thorpe could be the best to come from Down Under,” which speaks to how highly thought of he once was, but then missed 2015 and 2016 due to Tommy John surgery and contracting mono during rehab.

Thorpe has A LOT to prove and will be entering the most pivotal Spring Training of his career as he is out of Minor League options, but that might actually play into his favor as the Twins would need to designate him for assignment which would allow another team to snag him. If he and Dobnak are viewed similarly by the time the season starts, you could see the Twins give him the first opportunity at the back end of the rotation as a “one last shot” situation. Thorpe is truly a wild card, but has a higher ceiling and similar floor compared to Dobank which makes me lean towards giving him the first shot in the rotation.

Prospects

Although long shots, it’s worth mentioning that Jordan Balazovic (#97 prospect in baseball) and Jhoan Duran (#5 Twins prospect) will also have opportunities to compete for the last rotation spot. That said, a combination of the service time game, a jumbled 2020 season, and neither having much experience above High-A tells me this is highly unlikely. That said, they have some upside and will be fun to see where they are at in their Spring Training opportunities. For Duran, I wouldn’t rule out seeing him in a reliever role at some point in 2021 if the Twins deal with some injuries.

Free Agents

We’ve already talked about Shoemaker and mentioned that Falvey doesn’t see the Twins adding any more “big ticket contracts.” But for fun, I would love to see Jake Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker added to the mix. Odorizzi would slot ahead of Happ (*whispers* and maybe Berrios) making him the fifth starter, while Walker would likely compete for the fifth starter job with the aforementioned names in this article.

Trading for a Starter

The Twins are loaded. Keith Law has them as the eighth best Minor League system in the majors and having a surplus of quality outfield prospects in the minors that may be ready for The Show. I don’t foresee a trade happening anytime soon, but the Twins have the assets to add a quality arm if one becomes available at the trade deadline.

Who do you think wins the fifth rotation spot? Do you believe in Dobnak?

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