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Ian Kennedy has been an established MLB starting pitcher for more than a decade now. Kennedy was the New York Yankees first-round draft pick back in 2006 out of the University of Southern California. It didn’t take Kennedy long to get to the majors, as he made his MLB debut just a year later in 2007. After not having much success in his first few seasons with the Yankees, they traded Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers. After a couple of good seasons as a starter for the Diamondbacks Kennedy started to struggle in 2012 and was eventually traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2013 July trade deadline. After a couple of decent seasons with the Padres, Kennedy signed a five-year $70 million-dollar deal with the defending champion Kansas City Royals in January of 2016.
After the 2018 season, it was clear that the 34-year-old pitcher was losing a step, which played a part in the Royals transitioning Ian Kennedy to the bullpen this offseason. This move has paid off big for both Kennedy and the Royals. In 32 innings, across 31 relief appearances, Kennedy has a 3.38 ERA (2.06 FIP), with a 11.25 K/9 and just a 1.41 BB/9. Among the 173 qualified relievers this season, Kennedy’s 8.0 strikeout to walk ratio ranks 4th. This will be very attractive to the Twins front office which has shown an affinity for pitchers with excellent strikeout and walk numbers.
We often hear how a move to the bullpen helps a starting pitcher gain some velocity on his fastball, and all of a sudden, he are a new and improved pitcher. In a game with so much complexity it’s hard to believe something as simple as this can make such a big difference, but with Ian Kennedy it has. In 2018, Kennedy averaged 91.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. This year, that number is up two full ticks to 93.9 MPH. This has helped Kennedy hold opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a .214 wOBA against his fastball, both marks are easily the best of his career. What amplifies this effect is that Kennedy is throwing his fastball on a career high 65 percent of hit pitches. With such a drastic improvement on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time, it is no wonder why Kennedy has been so much better this year.
One thing the Twins will have to consider when trading for Ian Kennedy is the money left on his contract. Kennedy is currently on year four of that five-year deal I mentioned previously, which would give the Twins control through 2020 if they were to trade for him. While this would be a nice addition, the $16.5 million that Kennedy is due in both 2019 and 2020 will give the Twins some pause. The money for 2019 might not be so intimidating as he will only be owed roughly $5.5 million if the Twins were to trade for him at the July 31st trade deadline. The part that might keep them from wanting to deal for Kennedy is the $16.5 million owed to him in 2020. That is a substantial amount of money, for a reliever, and that could drastically alter their plans for this upcoming offseason. At the same rate, Kennedy’s contract will probably make him available for cheap in terms of prospect capital, so if their focus is on maintaining as many of their prospects as possible, while still adding to the team, Kennedy could be a great target.
See Also
Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks
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