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  • Potential Non-Tender Candidates the Twins Should Keep an Eye On


    Theodore Tollefson

    The free agent market is set to grow this Friday as the MLB non-tender deadline is upcoming and there are a few players likely to be let go by their teams that could fit the Twins' needs for 2023. 

    Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove, USA Today Sports

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    The deadline for MLB team’s to tender contracts to players is coming up this Friday, November 18. The Twins have as many as two players who could be non-tendered on Friday; Emilio Pagan, and Gio Urshela.

    With a lot of focus in Twins Territory with the non-tender deadline on Gio Urshela and if the Twins will keep him or non-tender him, there are still many other names from other teams that could be good or better fits for the team’s needs than those currently on the free agent market. 

    The only notable name likely to be non-tendered for the Twins' biggest need at shortstop is the man they traded alongside Josh Donaldson to have money available for Carlos Correa. There are still some names to help bolster the Twins' outfield and pitching rotation depth to avoid the troubles seen in 2022. 

    Here are five players who are likely to be non-tendered on Friday that the Twins Front Office should consider pursuing. 

    5. Jeff Hoffman
    A former top prospect that was a part of the deal that brought Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, Jeff Hoffman had a decent season in the Cincinnati Reds bullpen posting a 3.83 ERA in 34 relief appearances. Hoffman has seen time in and out of the starting rotation throughout his career but had his first full season as a reliever this year.

    Hoffman does not pop out as a top-quality, high-leverage reliever. He is still someone who fits the model of the current front office’s methods of relievers to pick up off the market. 

    There is potential there for Hoffman to be a strong reliever as he has two breaking balls with a splitter and a slider. The average velocity for his fastball hits 94.5 mph. 

    If the Twins front office takes their time, as usual, this offseason to sign free agents, Hoffman may be one of those late off-season patches to help the bullpen. 

    4. Lou Trivino
    Trivino had a very bad season in 2022, at least until he was traded from the Oakland A’s to the Yankees. Just how bad was his time in Oakland this year? Trivino had a 6.47 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 39 games.

    While the trade to the Yankees didn’t help his teammate Frankie Montas, the trade was certainly worthwhile for Trivino. In 25 games he posted a 1.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 238 ERA+. 

    Trivino’s season rebound after leaving Oakland could make him a highly-sought reliever if he is non-tendered. The only thing that could keep Trivino from leaving the Yankees is their own belief in him being a boost to their bullpen with the departure of Aroldis Chapman. And given Chapman’s problems with the organization at seasons end, the Yankees will be trying all the relievers they can for the closer role. 

    3. Brian Anderson
    Originally drafted by the Twins out of high school in 2011, Anderson opted to go to college at the University of Arkansas instead. Brian Anderson could be a good right-handed bat to add to the Twins' depth chart in 2023.

    Anderson has often split time between third base and right field throughout his career. If the Twins do non-tender Urshela, he would be a valuable backup at that position to Jose Miranda and fill in well as a much-needed right-handed hitter in the outfield.

    The biggest concern when it comes to Brian Anderson is his health. Anderson has not played over 100 games since 2019 and in the last two seasons has had significant setbacks with shoulder injuries. 

    The shoulder injuries have also set back Anderson’s offensive production. He has failed to hit more than 10 home runs in the last two years and averaged a .687 OPS in 647 plate appearances in that course of time. 

    Maybe a change of scenery could help Anderson on the field as his health improves over that time. The Twins may consider Anderson as a platoon option between third and right field pending the decision on Urshela this Friday. 

    2. Elieser Hernandez
    Elieser Hernandez is an interesting case for the Twins and any team interested in him. The Miami Marlins have touted him on the mound both as a starter and reliever over his five-year career. 

    This season, Hernandez split his time evenly as a starter and reliever this season. He actually saw more success in the rotation versus the bullpen, but his season ERA came to 6.35 with a 1.42 WHIP and ERA+ of 64. 

    Hernandez’s time in Miami is likely coming to a close as he has a 5.04 ERA across the five seasons there. He is a reclamation project for any team that picks him up, and when it comes to the Twins, he levels himself in a similar position to Ronny Henriquez or Cole Sands.

    These two prospects still have starter potential but are likely shifting into bullpen roles. Hernandez's velocity on his fastball isn’t the highest as it averages out to 91.6 MPH. 

    Many still see the potential of Hernandez to turn his career around as he turns 28 next May. There is a case to be made for the Twins to go out and sign him to a one-year deal and see what comes out of it. 

    1. Hunter Renfroe
    This right fielder is the complete opposite of Max Kepler over the last two seasons. Renfroe is known for being a power hitter with little defensive value while Kepler is a top defender at his position but has struggled mightily with the bat. 

    With David Stearns stepping down from the role as the Brewers' President of Baseball Operations, there is heavy speculation the Brewers may tear down their roster. Renfroe hits this list as his salary is estimated at $11.2 million, according to John Bitzer of Baseball Trade Values, and not to mention, the top five Brewers prospects on MLB.com are outfielders. 

    As the Twins limped their way to the end of the 2022 season with their outfielder, right-handed hitting outfielders were missing altogether with Buxton out and Kyle Garlick struggling mightily. Given a good track record of health and posting a .257/.315/.497 (.812) line in the last two seasons. 

    Renfroe would be a good one-year pick-up for the Twins outfield while Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner find their footing with good health in the Majors.  

    All five of these non-tender candidates have something to offer the Twins. Whether they enter the free agent market or not is still up in the air until Friday, but there is a good chance one of them could be in a Twins uniform for 2023. 

     

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    "The only notable name likely to be non-tendered for the Twins' biggest need at shortstop is the man they traded alongside Josh Donaldson to have money available for Carlos Correa. There are still some names to help bolster the Twins' outfield and pitching rotation depth to avoid the troubles seen in 2022." 

    Why didn't you mention Kiner-Falefa by name? He is the one I'm very interested in. I'm sorry the ones that you mentioned I'm not, IMO wouldn't be worth putting on the 40 man. Right now we have 0 serviceable SS, I'd liketo have 3, IKF fills that void. If we don't sign Correa, he could be a crucial piece to fall back on. If by chance Correa does sign, he can be a very viable back-up & utility player. He'll be a cheap 1yr. option, that's all we need.

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    Trevino is the definition of inconsistent. If we're taking him onto the roster in February something has gone terribly wrong.

    IKF is very interesting, I hadnt read he was on the bubble....gotta believe there is trade value if Yanks are serious about moving him. But if he did pop up in the next few days would have to believe Twins would be interested.

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    If any of these guys can ride the AAA/MLB shuttle it could be worth a look. Otherwise nah. No reason to clog the 26 man roster with players out of options. 

    Jeff Hoffman- out of options. Pass 

    Lou Trivino - 2 option years. Possibly. 

    Brian Anderson - says N/A on FanGraphs so I assume that’s none remaining? Pass. 

    Elieser Hernandez - 1 option year remaining. Still, probably not. 

    Hunter Renfroe - Also says N/A on FanGraphs. Probably not. 

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    I really like the option of Renfroe, Garlick just avoided arbitration and could be traded for scraps, Renfroe succeeded in being a middle-of-the-order bat for Milwaukee last year and demolishes lefties, making for a great platoon for Gordon/Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner while still holding solid number against righties. Sure, his defense is shaky, but that’s a risk I’ll take when Wallner’s defense balances it as a trade-off.

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    Kiner-Falefa would be who I would go after.  He's a perfect "bridge" SS with multi position utility if the Yanks non-tender him.  Great glove, not a disaster as a #9 hitter.  It would be surprising if the Yanks non-tendered him rather than seek a trade.  I would be disappointed if the Twins non-tendered Gio.  He's a keeper to me.  

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    I don't understand the bandwagon of non-tendering Urshela. He was our most consistent hitter outside of Arraez and Correa. He was one of our more solid defenders. He earned the right to be able to get the spot on the Twins roster. All he showed was consistency on a team that was bruised, battered, and bloody all season. 

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    You're kidding, right? These are exactly the kind of players that we don't want.  If we're shopping for experienced ML players instead of promoting from within, then we want tried and true players, not tried and failed players.  This strategy of scraping the bottom of the barrel for reclamation projects is overused and doesn't generally work out.  Let's shop at the Dior store!

     

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    Urshela is not being non-tendered.  That topic is lunacy.

    The only reason to look at non-tenders at this time is for potential 5th OF (which we don't need) or BP fliers.  Not sure what is out there at this point, but nothing exciting ...

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    10 hours ago, MTV said:

    I really like the option of Renfroe, Garlick just avoided arbitration and could be traded for scraps, Renfroe succeeded in being a middle-of-the-order bat for Milwaukee last year and demolishes lefties, making for a great platoon for Gordon/Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner while still holding solid number against righties. Sure, his defense is shaky, but that’s a risk I’ll take when Wallner’s defense balances it as a trade-off.

    Renfroe may be able to be acquired by trade, but he's not getting non-tendered. He was the best hitter on their team for anyone with more than 68 PAs. 

     

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    19 hours ago, RpR said:

    If the Twins wasted 10 seconds even thinking about Renfroe they deserve to be a losing team.

    Why do you think this?

    A 30 yr old (going to be 31 in 2023 season) RHB COF with a 118 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons, and who is an average defender in RF, would be a welcome addition to any lineup, especially the Twins.

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    25 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

    Why do you think this?

    A 30 yr old (going to be 31 in 2023 season) RHB COF with a 118 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons, and who is an average defender in RF, would be a welcome addition to any lineup, especially the Twins.

    Kepler is a well above average outfielder, more important than a bat.

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    8 minutes ago, RpR said:

    Kepler is a well above average outfielder, more important than a bat.

    Sure. Put Renfroe in LF where he is likely an above-average defender. I'm pretty sure that's permitted by the rules.

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    41 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

    Sure. Put Renfroe in LF where he is likely an above-average defender. I'm pretty sure that's permitted by the rules.

    That is an idea, but too may outfielders are only competent where they have always been and too often not good in the other two.

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    The Twins already have better outfielders than any of the for- mentioned of (give a break).  It’s to early to go skinny dipping for the other for-mentioned players. The Twins have to many other holes to fill and need to spend more money than on players who are marginal. Everyone is complaining the Twins have too many left handed outfielders, then let’s do some trading of them?

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    On 11/15/2022 at 12:10 PM, Minny505 said:

    Renfroe may be able to be acquired by trade, but he's not getting non-tendered. He was the best hitter on their team for anyone with more than 68 PAs. 

     

    True, but his Arb cost, low defensive value and single year of control won’t make him super expensive. Give up a decent prospect or 2 and it should be enough, my ideal trade was Balazovic and Megill for him.

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    2 hours ago, MTV said:

    True, but his Arb cost, low defensive value and single year of control won’t make him super expensive. Give up a decent prospect or 2 and it should be enough, my ideal trade was Balazovic and Megill for him.

    They could use more immediate help in the rotation. It's top heavy.

    Blaze is a little much, especially with his last few starts of 2022. On top of that, Brewers are always looking for MLB ready guys.

    I'd offer Varland or Winder, plus Moran or Sands. 

    Regardless, I just can't picture them trading their best hitter. That would be counting on Yelich and 3 rookies for their OF depth chart, one of which isn't even on the 40 man. I find that unlikely if they are still trying to contend, which they should.

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    On 11/15/2022 at 12:41 PM, RpR said:

    That is an idea, but too may outfielders are only competent where they have always been and too often not good in the other two.

    I agree on CF and RF, but the bar for LF defense is so low that pretty much anyone who can competently play CF/RF looks good in LF.

    LF is the place where teams rotate their 9th guy for the day who is doesn't have a defensive home and is healthy and rested. Even Nick Gordon was a positive out in LF, despite being competent at best everywhere else he played. Arraez played a lot of innings there in the past.

    Going back over the last decade you will see the butchers that the Twins have had play LF and that is not at all unique to the Twins.

    Even Yordon Alvarez is a competent LFer. The bar is very low in that specific position. 

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