Postseason Review: Ricky Nolasco

Finally, Nolasco posted a 4.30 FIP, indicating that he suffered from bad luck and bad defense. In watching most of his starts, I would submit that he didn't get much help from his defence and that he suffered from a bunch of bloop hits and some bad hops. I also saw a lot of hard-hit balls with quite a few reaching the seats.

A couple notes:

A 4.30 ERA in Target Field 2014 would have been like a 92 ERA+, still below league average for a starter.

Entering 2014, Nolasco's career ERA underperformed his FIP by 0.61.  His ERA matched or beat his FIP only once (2008).

Nolasco post-DL: 6+ IP/GS, 7.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 10.2% HR/FB, .331 BABIP, 3.71 xFIP

Shields 2nd Half: 7- IP/GS, 6.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 7.8% HR/FB, .268 BABIP, 3.62 xFIP

 

Nolasco's BABIP is as much above average as Shields' is below. Luck? A comparison of the OF defenses? Both? Shields also had a much lower HR/FB% than his career norm (11.2%). I offer the 2nd half numbers because I think it's more fair to project Nolasco's 2015 performance based on a period of the season when we know he was healthy, and because Shields' 2nd half emphasizes how much his K% is in decline but also how much he benefits from otherworldly BABIP. Nolasco is younger and has much less mileage on his arm.

 

Depending on where Shields signs and what the Twins do with their OF, I wouldn't be surprised if the difference between these 2 pitchers is pretty minimal in 2015. I will certainly expect to see the 2nd half Nolasco, who would easily be worth $12M over 30+ GS.

 

Bottom line: if you hated the Nolasco signing, you probably wouldn't like Shields, either.

You think it's appropriate to project Nolasco based on 9 starts and 55 IP?  Even if we fully believe that he was actually hurt prior to that, how well did projecting Pelfrey based on a small subset of his starts work in 2014?  Injuries, especially ones that go undetected/unreported for a long time, can linger, re-occur, and sometimes get even worse.

And somehow, because some of his peripherals over these 55 IP were close to Shields' last 96 IP, we're supposed to expect similar run prevention marks from them going forward?  Despite the differences in career run prevention and Nolasco's established FIP underperformance?  These guys aren't some kind of unknowns, they've each got 9 MLB seasons under their belt, and 1500-2000 MLB IP, and they're only 12 months apart in age.

You can be down on Shields' career trends (although they certainly haven't shown up in run prevention measures yet) and think he's a bad value on a big contract going forward, but for them to prevent runs at a roughly equal rate in 2015 would require a sudden massive collapse from Shields and/or a sudden massive improvement from Nolasco.  Either would by definition be very surprising.  Career 94 ERA+ pitchers coming off a 73 ERA+ season generally don't outperform career 110 ERA+ pitchers coming off a 124.

Nolasco is younger and has much less mileage on his arm.

Hey, Pelfrey is younger than both of them, with less mileage on his arm too!   Pardon my snark, but on a micro level of comparing two players, 12 months of age is more or less meaningless, and generic "arm mileage" is almost certainly less significant than recent injury history (on which count, Nolasco would clearly lose).