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  • Postseason Review: Joe Mauer


    David Mensing

    Joe Mauer is a former MVP and a three-time batting champion. As a catcher, he has won five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. These are Hall of Fame credentials for a 31-year-old. Last year, Mauer was shut down after suffering a concussion. The symptoms were present until well into the offseason. Mauer and his advisors decided it was time to give up catching. With the exit of Justin Morneau, a move to first base was an easy call.

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    I was among those who thought that Mauer would be able to play more games and provide more power when he abandoned catching. For the 2014 season, I was wrong. Mauer had a career-low .277 batting average and managed only 518 plate appearances. Mauer's OPS and OPS+ approached career lows, as well, and he managed only four homers, about one homer per 130 plate appearances. In addition, Joe continued a disturbing trend of increasing strikeouts. He fanned 96 times, about 18.5 percent of the time, compared to maxing out at less than 12 percent his first eight years in the league. His strikeout percentage has increased dramatically each of his last three seasons.

    This year, Mauer suffered injuries, missing games with back spasms, an elbow injury and mid-year went on the DL with an oblique injury that reportedly bothered him for most of the rest of the season. It has also been reported that Mauer was rusty coming in to the spring because he didn't have his normal workout regimen due to the concussion. Combined with the adjustment of switching full time to first base, Mauer had an uncomfortable first half of the season. At the All-Star break, he was hitting .271 with a .695 OPS. Joe picked up the pace after the All-Star break. His OBP after the break was .397 and his OPS after the break was .805.

    Mauer also had fairly dramatic platoon splits. Against left-handers, he managed only four extra base hits and had an OPS of .654 (.776 against righties).

    No one can dispute that Mauer's numbers were far below career norms. The question is whether he is going hard in to decline mode or whether he can recapture his Hall of Fame- worthy form from his first ten years in the majors. No one really knows and no one knows the extent of the injuries, including the concussion he suffered in 2013. My speculation is that Mauer has long been a premier player using his somewhat unique approach. I think that he now needs to adjust that approach. He needs to be more aggressive early in the count and find pitches to drive. He also needs to be stronger, so that some of his 360-foot fly balls turn into 380-foot home runs.

    Defensively, Mauer looked uncomfortable at first at the beginning of the year. By playing 100 games at first, he got more comfortable and became a pretty good defensive first baseman. All of that matters little if he can't come back and again be a top hitter.

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    I think it will be incredibly interesting to watch the evolving of Joe in the next couple of years.  Hopefully he will take a positive step forward as the concussion issue gets further in his rear view mirror, a la Justin Morneau.  If not, the Twins will just have to ride out the contract and be willing to sit him should better players step forward at 1B.

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    I'm more pessimistic on this than I thought. At this point, I don't think the Twins should count on him to be any better than he was.  If he improves, great.  But don't expect much more.  His babip was around normal for him, he didn't play catcher but couldn't stay healthy.  He'll be 32 next year.  Lots of guys are done at 32.  I also don't think he has the ability to hit with power against the shifts baseball has used against him.  

     

    The hard part will be what they do if he stays this way.  His OBP was still pretty respectable and would fit in the #2 spot.  But his bat really isn't better than that and the Twins might have better options in the next few years at the top of the order.  He could be a #7 hitter in 2016.

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    I'm more pessimistic on this than I thought. At this point, I don't think the Twins should count on him to be any better than he was.  If he improves, great.  But don't expect much more.  His babip was around normal for him, he didn't play catcher but couldn't stay healthy.  He'll be 32 next year.  Lots of guys are done at 32.  I also don't think he has the ability to hit with power against the shifts baseball has used against him.  

     

    The hard part will be what they do if he stays this way.  His OBP was still pretty respectable and would fit in the #2 spot.  But his bat really isn't better than that and the Twins might have better options in the next few years at the top of the order.  He could be a #7 hitter in 2016.

     

    Which Joe was the real Joe?  Pre-2014 injury or post 2014 injury?  I want to hope that after he came off the DL and hit .289/.398/.408/.805 is the Mauer we see next year and not before the all star break Mauer that struggled.  I will say I think Joe is far from done.  The kind of hitter he is which is high contact + good eye are the ones that stick around the longest, though I'd be lying if I said the increasing K/rate didn't bother me.

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    Which Joe was the real Joe?  Pre-2014 injury or post 2014 injury?  I want to hope that after he came off the DL and hit .289/.398/.408/.805 is the Mauer we see next year and not before the all star break Mauer that struggled.  I will say I think Joe is far from done.  The kind of hitter he is which is high contact + good eye are the ones that stick around the longest, though I'd be lying if I said the increasing K/rate didn't bother me.

    I think numbers post DL might be realistic.  Baseball has such a razor edge from being a successful hitter to floundering.  It does not take much mentally pr physically to throw one off.  

     

    Think of all of the issues Mauer had to address the beginning of the season: returning from a concussion, losing a good chunk of the off-season conditioning because of the concussion, learning a new position,feeling pressure about making the all-star team when at the home field, back issues, (hopefully due to not being able to condition off season and not a sign of future problems), oblique (ditto).  

     

    It will be interesting to see how he is next year.  One more year removed from the concussion, knowing more what to expect playing first base and hopefully try a few new off season conditioning techniques.  It is possible that he is just aging quickly due to his career as a catcher, but I also think it is possible that he will have a bit of a rebound and while his best days are behind him, be a respectable player for a few more years.  If healthy, I also think his defense will continue to improve.

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    I'm with Willihammer on this one as I have been a steadfast Mauer supporter.

     

    But if 2015 roles around and he has another season like the one he just had. I would have no justification to argue any point defending Mauer against his critics.

     

    I really, really hope he gets after it this offseason and silences his critics next season (not to say that is even possible).

     

    I'm still pulling for you Joe!

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    .289/.387/.805 with 6 home runs isn't good enough at first base. Catcher would be fantastic, but first is just ok. I don't want my 3rd batter with 2 men on and down by two runs with two outs in the9th inning to take a walk and leave the game winner to the guys behind him. I want him to swing like he's trying to win the game.

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    I'm saying it again - Mauer needs to do the whole Rocky IV workout montage and come to Spring Training with a gnarly beard after spending the winter in the North Woods chopping wood and doing one arm push-ups.

    Will this be enough, or should he go old-school and also punch some sides of beef?  Cross-train, sez I.

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    I got a lot of flack on other forums a few years ago for thinking the Twins should have moved Mauer out from behind the plate years ago. Probably before he even made the big leagues. Now they are paying the price for a physical decline that might not be correctable, as well as losing a lot of time on the field in the interim.

     

    I still think it was a mistake having him catch, WAR be damned.

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    I think it made sense for him to catch as long as Morneau was producing at first base - I could see a strong argument for him to have moved a year earlier than he did.

     

    It shouldn't really matter where a hitter plays in the field if he's a great hitter. But it does improve a whole lineup if a traditionally weak position has an elite hitter occupying it. It was a treat to have Mauer and Morneau in the same batting order, and adding Thome as a DH for a short time was icing on the cake. Having a HOF level bat that can catch, or play SS, or CF is great because those are so rare. It's easier to supplement a lineup with a corner infielder or outfielder that can hit for power, that's what a majority of players at that position have to do to make it to the majors.

     

    Vargas and Sano and Arcia mashing with Buxton, Dozier, and Mauer getting on base in front of them could be really special - assuming they can all exist in the same lineup without sacrificing too much defensively.

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    Mauer is now married and has twin daughters.  That is far more important than his batting average or power numbers.  Nothing happens in a vacuum. Perhaps his priorities have changed somewhat.  Good for Joe.  :)

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    I was one who predicted a career year for Joe Mauer in 2014 - 30-35 homers and at least a .333 average with 110 RBI.  It has never ever made sense to me that a man 6'5" and 240 lbs could not be a homerun hitter with that "perfect" swing his dad repeatedly said would bring the next .400 hitter to MLB.  I fear that marriage and fatherhood has taken focus from the ball player.  I root for him to become what he once was while playing the very little taxing position of first base.  It is sad that Morneau was forsaken for Mauer.  If Joe wants to be a father and a husband above all else, maybe he will do the Ryan Dempster and sit out a season without pay and figure it out.  Otherwise, there are 23 million reasons a year to focus and do the Twins right.  He needs to evolve and develop power that carries 10-15 feet further with that "perfect swing" and just hit it over the shifts and into the stands.  He is a huge man.  Time to man up.

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    I have no problem with him getting stronger or working harder.   I think he should and probably will.   I am hoping it was the concussion effects that had a lot to do with his decline this year.  After all, it took Morneau 3 years to recover from his.   A lot of people were saying he was done all through the first two years of his recovery.  Now look at him.   All that said it appeared to me that Mauer did try to hit for more power by trying to pull the ball and that is what got him off to the bad start.     Get stronger?  Fine  Swing at first pitches more?  Fine.  Just a little bit more will get good results.    Not worried about any of that though.   Go back to hitting .320 with a .400 OBP and a manager with sense to put him in the 2 spot is all I ask for.    His defense at first base in one full year was plenty good.    2nd half was probably gold glove caliber.   Great target and good reflexes.

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    Cuddy and Morneau go to play in Denver and compete for the batting title.  Mauer would hit .400 if he played half his games at Coors Field.  Pedro Florimon hopes he gets traded to Colorado so he can win a batting title.

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