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  • Player Predictions: DH Byung Ho Park


    Seth Stohs

    In early November, Twins fans were surprised to learn that the team had won the bid and had the exclusive rights to negotiate with Byung Ho Park. Park then helped Korea to the championship of the inaugural Premier12 event. Park homered in the championship game. Soon after, he arrived in Minnesota and signed a four-year deal.

    It was announced that he will be the Twins primary DH. He won a Gold Glove in the KBO, so he will also get some time at first base for the Twins as well. However, the Twins didn’t watch him in high school and many times over the last decade because of his glove. It was his bat and power potential that caught teams' eyes.

    He has spent most of the past five years playing for Nexon in the KBO. In that time, he has been the league’s top player. Over the last two years, he has homered 105 times. Each of the past three seasons, he has hit over .300, been on base at least 43% of the time and posted OPS well over 1.000.

    Park is certainly intriguing. No one should expect him to hit 50 home runs a year in the far-superior MLB. There will be an adjustment for Park and that will make predicting Park’s 2016 really difficult.

    Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, USA Today

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    Parks’ Nexen teammate in 2014, Jung Ho Kang signed with Pittsburgh and spent his rookie season with the Pirates. After a slow start, he played quite well and if not for a late-season injury, he was giving Kris Bryant a run for NL rookie of the year.

    Let’s take a look at Kang’s transition last year:

    2014 Nexen (age 27)
    - .356/.459/.739 (1.198) with 36-2B, 40 HR, 68 BB, 106K

    2015 MLB (age 28)
    - ..287/.355/.461 (.816) with 24-2B, 15 HR, 28 BB, 99 K

    Here is Byung Ho Park’s 2015 in Korea:

    2015 Nexen (age 28)
    - .343/.436/.714 (1.150) with 35-2B, 53 HR, 78 BB, 161 K

    2016 MLB (age 29)
    - We shall find out.

    While the numbers are pretty similar in the two players’ year before moving to MLB, there are some differences. Park had been better for longer. Park walked a bit more, but he struck out significantly more, and therein lies the concern. If it was just about those overall numbers, we could do some basic math and figure that Park would OPS somewhere around .780. But that strikeout rate is certainly more alarming coming into MLB than Kang’s was.

    Spring training has shown that Park can perform. He should not be overwhelmed. He hit three home runs, all on fastballs. He took quality at-bats. He drove in runs. He gave reason for optimism, and yet fans need to know that there will be some difficult moments and weeks for Park. Just like any rookie. But I’m more optimistic now that he can make the transition.

    So, what is in store for him in 2016? Below you’ll find my predictions for Park in 2016.

    KEY NUMBERS

    29 - Though he is a rookie, and arguably a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, he will turn 30 in mid-July. To some extent, he is what he is at this point. He’s actually closer to the end of his prime than the middle of it. However, he is still capable of adjusting, he certainly will have to, and we all hope he will.

    105... but 303 - Yes, Park was a power hitting star in the KBO, knocking 105 home runs over the last two seasons. However, he also struck out 303 times in that same time frame. His strikeout rate was between 24% and 26% the last couple of years. I would predict that he’ll strike out closer to 30% in his upcoming rookie season.

    PREDICTIONS

    Byung Ho Park: 471 at-bats, .247/.318/.423 (.741), 23 doubles, 0 triples, 20 home runs.

    With the transition and the rough times I would expect Park to get a day off each week and maybe two days off in the rougher weeks. Remember that Molitor will want to get Oswaldo Arcia’s bat into the lineup on a somewhat regular basis and DH is a good spot for that.

    As you can see, I predict him to struggle. I think that .741 OPS will be right around league average, and maybe that’s pretty good for a rookie. My hope, of course, would be that we will see improvement from April to June, from June to August, and so on. He will hit some home runs. I feel like my number might be a little low, and he will hit doubles too.

    While those numbers might seem disappointing, I do believe that Park is going to be fine, and I think he’s shown enough that over the course of his four (and optionally five) years with the Twins under this contract, he will become a better than average hitter with even more power.

    YOUR TURN

    Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byung Ho Park in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

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    I think or am hoping he will start off extremely hot (going to be interesting to see if Molitor will do some consistent lineups). I also believe he will work hard, especially LEARN that you take pitches in major league ball and he'll start drawing more walks than expected. Going from Korea to spring training to Target Field and other major league stadiums will be an adjustment. Just remember, he hasn't played in these parks. But let's give him a Big Ovation his first times at Target Field!

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    From what I see of Park's hitting form, I'm optimistic. He has excellent balance, a good sweep through the zone, meets the ball out front, and finishes with an upper cut. Park's home run swing reminds me a bit of Torii Hunter's, and Park's plate discipline looks very good. Mid-20's home runs or better, depending how well he adjusts to MLB off-speed stuff. He does not appear over-matched at all. 

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    From what I see of Park's hitting form, I'm optimistic. He has excellent balance, a good sweep through the zone, meets the ball out front, and finishes with an upper cut. Park's home run swing reminds me a bit of Torii Hunter's, and Park's plate discipline looks very good. Mid-20's home runs or better, depending how well he adjusts to MLB off-speed stuff. He does not appear over-matched at all.

     

    Call me Seth...errr...optomistic, but from everything I have heard and seen, (in very limited bits), he seems to have a nice stroke and an idea at the plate. I'm impressed and hopeful at this point. I kept expecting a .200 BA ish and real questions as to whether he should spend the early portion of the season in AAA getting acclimated. Didn't we all hear about this as a thought and possible expectation? Suddenly it looks like we may actually have a productive new power hitter for our lineup. Yes?

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    Call me Seth...errr...optomistic, but from everything I have heard and seen, (in very limited bits), he seems to have a nice stroke and an idea at the plate. I'm impressed and hopeful at this point. I kept expecting a .200 BA ish and real questions as to whether he should spend the early portion of the season in AAA getting acclimated. Didn't we all hear about this as a thought and possible expectation? Suddenly it looks like we may actually have a productive new power hitter for our lineup. Yes?

    His "idea" at the plate - a plan he figures out before stepping in the box may be what separates Park from other "rookies" like Buxton last year, who did look over-matched. Park has already spent years planning to attack professional pitchers, some of whom presumably had semi-MLB stuff. 

     

    While it's true that a lot of MLB pitchers can throw the ball a few mph faster than in Asia, the rest of the package is not completely alien to Park, who dominated his league. The question going into ST was, can he hit a major league fastball? We now know the answer is yes, he can. The next question is, can he formulate a good plan for attacking MLB pitchers during a 162 game season? Well, it's the same mental process he's been doing successfully for several years, so my guess is that he will not look like a typical rookie out there. He knows situations, how to work a count, how to look for certain pitches in certain counts. If they try to feed him all fastballs, we know he can hammer a fastball. If they feed him a curve and it hangs, he can hit those a long way, too. 

     

    If Park has any weaknesses as a hitter in this league, it will be the same pitches that other major leaguers have trouble with. He might even surprise some people with his ability to hit pitches he sees more often in his former league. He has played the cat and mouse game for quite a while now. It's not going to intimidate him.

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