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After breaking into the big leagues and filling some important innings in 2019, Lewis Thorpe looked like a future rotation piece for the Major League club. He led AAA in K/9 and while he posted a 6.18 ERA in 27 2/3 MLB innings, his underlying numbers looked like he got unlucky.
Unfortunately, 2020 proved those analytics wrong, as Thorpe posted a 6.06 ERA in just over 16 innings during the COVID-shortened season with underlying numbers to match. Thorpe failed to even eat innings in his outings as his BB/9 matched his K/9 at 5.5, and he soon became passed over on the rotational depth chart.
2021 was odd in the sense that Thorpe should have been a make-or-break player out of Spring Training before MLB granted the Twins an extra year of team control (a fourth option year) due to injuries early in his career. This allowed the Twins to option him to AAA to reset and try to work his way back up. Unfortunately, Thorpe still failed to impress in his 15 MLB innings in 2021, as he had a higher BB/9 (4.1) and ERA (4.70) than K/9 (3.52). So why are we still talking about Lewis Thorpe?
This spring is make-or-break for Thorpe, as he’s unable to be optioned if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. He could be on the fringes of the 40-man roster as is and could even be cut loose if the Twins make enough moves in the coming weeks. That being said, Thorpe possibly sticking around in a bullpen role should raise some eyebrows for those that remember the talent the lefty flashed early in his career.
The most confusing trend of Thorpe’s downhill trajectory is his fastball velocity. During his three MLB seasons, his fastball has dipped from 91.4 mph to 89.9 mph to 89.1 mph in 2021. He’s had a few shoulder ailments along the way which would help explain this dropoff, but at no point since 2019 has he even regularly hit 90 mph. It’s fair to call this the root of Thorpe’s problems, as sub 90 mph fastballs rarely play at the MLB level and the lack of separation in velocity affects the secondary pitches as well.
What we know about moves to the bullpen is it often gives pitchers a nice velocity boost. The Twins bullpen has a foundation of players who’ve seen this play out such as Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers. It’s hard to imagine Thorpe recreating himself as a flamethrower coming out of the pen, but he showed that even sitting around 91 mph as he did in his rookie season is enough to rack up strikeouts and get the best of hitters.
It’s not unheard of for pitchers to find success after struggling mightily early in their careers. At 26 years old, Thorpe could still have plenty in the tank if something clicks. An immediate plan for a bullpen role may keep him fresher and healthier without a starter's workload which he’s struggled to shoulder thus far in his career. Letting his stuff play up in shorter stints may be the ticket for the Australian left-hander who averaged well over a strikeout per inning his entire minor league career as well as in his MLB debut.
The fact that Thorpe has remained on the Twins 40 man roster this long suggests the team believes he may prove to be worth it. 2022 is the season we all find out. Do you believe Lewis Thorpe can once again become a contributor for the Twins?
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