Offseason Underway: Twins Make Flurry of Moves

There might be a few left, but thus pretty much slams the door on 30 years of drafting and pitching development by Terry Ryan and crew.

Yeah, very odd move with Gonsalves. This is a team that is going to need starting pitching depth and he is not that far removed from being a top 5 prospect. I had not read anything to indicate that his arm issues were a long term problem, but of course we don't hear the full story.

Gonsalves is the only move I somewhat question, everything else seemed like obvious moves to make. Hopefully the Twins are confident that they have a good plan for Gonsalves 40 man spot.

There might be a few left, but thus pretty much slams the door on 30 years of drafting and pitching development by Terry Ryan and crew.

Thorpe, Romero, Graterol, Balzovic, Colina, Jax, Stashak, Wells, Poppen,  Vazquez, a few 18-20 year old pitchers who were international signings at 16 Moran was sent to the AFL, they haven't given up on him. Hildenberger hasn't been released.  There are plenty others in the system, likely not going to make it to the majors, but still a chance. Lujan and Acosta were promoted this year. Some of these might be released later, but it is still a chunk.

I would be shocked if Odorizzi accepts the QO. He's been around long enough to know this may have been a career season and might be his one and only chance to cash in. I do think 3 years $36 million is on the low end. There's a lot of teams looking for pitching.

I used to call for Gonsalves to be promoted, but as he was exposed over the last two years my enthusiasm disappeared.  At 26 he has not shown me anything that calls this move into question. Graterol, Balozovic, Duran are all ahead of him now.  We have Smeltzer, Dobnak, Littell, Alcala, Stashak, Thorpe on the 40 man and Enlow, Colina, Sands, and Vallimont in the minors.  

I do not think Gonsalves had a chance and he did not deserve it.  My question is about Romero, Harper, Hildenberger - have I missed announcements about them? 

A couple years ago, I had hoped Gonsalves would turn into a Kevin Slowey, a guy with great minor league numbers who showed promise, if not lived up to, at the MLB level.  

That the Twins cut bait with him and his co-draftee Stewart gave me dismay, but wasn't surprising.  The new regime has worked with these guys for three years; I believe they understand the limits of each's talent.  

With as much 40-man room and dollars the Twins have, I anticipate a lot of out-of-the-box pitcher acquisitions.  We'll acquire pitchers through FA, waiver, rule-5, trade, indy league, etc., and while none (or few) will be household names, I like that the Twins aren't letting sunk cost get in the way of making roster space/taking risks/being bold.

My thoughts, line by line:

1] Perez is a no-brainer at this point. I don't know if he just lost what he had, or the league figured him out. If he is just willing to do what others have done before, and embrace the idea of converting to the pen to extend his career and make $, then I could see him back on a low level deal. But unless someone else thinks they can really make a change his days as a ML SP are done, and history should show this.

2] Odorizzi will now be back, barring some crazy surprise. There is talk about how the QO really is a win-win for the team. I'd argue that to some degree. Odorizzi has stated he'd like to come back. He either makes a TON of money, close to what he has made in his career to this point, and then becomes a FA next season, OR, negotiates an extended offer with the Twins. I think win-win for both sides and he's back.

3] Gonsalves and Stewart are only slightly surprising. It's time for Stewart to move on and see if a change of scenery could make him a decent RP somewhere.

A healthy 2019, I don't think Gonsalves is gone. But there are only so many spots to fill, and 2019 IS a factor at this point. I ALWAYS thought he would take an extra year than most wanted but turn out to be a nice "pitcher" who would fill a 4-5 slot but could have the light turn on and maybe be a solid #3 after a couple of years. Best of luck!

4] Losing Swanson hurts equally as much as Rowson, IMO. He was brought in with the forward thinking FO not only for defensive work, but he brought in a whole different philosophy in regard to little things like catchers having batting practice before defensive drills while they were still fresh.

He brought innovation. Sure hoping they have someone else in mj d already to take his place.

A couple years ago, I had hoped Gonsalves would turn into a Kevin Slowey, a guy with great minor league numbers who showed promise, if not lived up to, at the MLB level.  

 

That the Twins cut bait with him and his co-draftee Stewart gave me dismay, but wasn't surprising.  The new regime has worked with these guys for three years; I believe they understand the limits of each's talent.  

 

With as much 40-man room and dollars the Twins have, I anticipate a lot of out-of-the-box pitcher acquisitions.  We'll acquire pitchers through FA, waiver, rule-5, trade, indy league, etc., and while none (or few) will be household names, I like that the Twins aren't letting sunk cost get in the way of making roster space/taking risks/being bold.

Part of what makes it fun following this team now is the decisive maneuvering. Cutting bait with guys and not hanging on. I look at the 40 man and I don't see more than a couple of guys that have had their chances and they might not make the opener either. I also expect a variety of acquisitions during an off season worth watching.

Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 why you never, ever resist trading "prospects" for established major league players.

 

I acknowledge there are most likely dozens of examples in those 1,000,000,001 where you'd end up regretting the move.

Lower revenue teams have never agreed with your position and over the past decade all teams are clearly putting more value on prospects. What do you know that the GMs don’t?

I was surprised at Gonsalves getting dropped, but the more I think about it, the less surprised I am. 2019 was a lost year and there were some really worrisome indicators in 2018, despite some good results. The jump in BBs in 2018 was a bad sign and his loss of control exploded when he got a taste in MLB. If the velocity is down, coming back off an injury year, at age 25 (not 26), with control problems, and the elbow is where the problem is...he's not looking like a great bet. He's looking like a AAAA player whose chance to be more is getting wiped out by injury.

I held out a lot of hope on Kohl Stewart; I thought with his ability to keep the ball in the park and avoid hard contact, he might be a useful back of the rotation guy, but he just couldn't finish off batters. I still think there's room in this league for guys who don't rack up huge K totals, but you have to be able to get some, and Stewart just doesn't get enough. The other thing is, if you're going to give up contact you can't also hand out the free passes. It's too many base runners to survive, even if you can get a bunch of DPs. The WHIP for Stewart tells the story, i think; he never got it under 1.3 in any level past A-ball. he's a bust and another red flag on the dangers of taking a HS pitcher too high.

I'm a big no on Perez coming back. Teams figured out the cutter once they got enough tape on it, and while the ability to throw a bunch of innings is in fact a skill, the twins should aim higher, even for a LH specialist, because for as good as he was against lefties, he got smoked against righties and I don't want to waste a spot on a LOOGY

I was surprised at Gonsalves getting dropped, but the more I think about it, the less surprised I am. 2019 was a lost year and there were some really worrisome indicators in 2018, despite some good results. The jump in BBs in 2018 was a bad sign and his loss of control exploded when he got a taste in MLB. If the velocity is down, coming back off an injury year, at age 25 (not 26), with control problems, and the elbow is where the problem is...he's not looking like a great bet. He's looking like a AAAA player whose chance to be more is getting wiped out by injury.

 

I held out a lot of hope on Kohl Stewart; I thought with his ability to keep the ball in the park and avoid hard contact, he might be a useful back of the rotation guy, but he just couldn't finish off batters. I still think there's room in this league for guys who don't rack up huge K totals, but you have to be able to get some, and Stewart just doesn't get enough. The other thing is, if you're going to give up contact you can't also hand out the free passes. It's too many base runners to survive, even if you can get a bunch of DPs. The WHIP for Stewart tells the story, i think; he never got it under 1.3 in any level past A-ball. he's a bust and another red flag on the dangers of taking a HS pitcher too high.

 

I'm a big no on Perez coming back. Teams figured out the cutter once they got enough tape on it, and while the ability to throw a bunch of innings is in fact a skill, the twins should aim higher, even for a LH specialist, because for as good as he was against lefties, he got smoked against righties and I don't want to waste a spot on a LOOGY

To further prove your last point:

With the new three-batter minimum rule starting in 2020, there may not be LOOGY's on any teams next year. It will be incumbent on all lefty relievers to be able to get right-handed hitters out too.

Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 why you never, ever resist trading "prospects" for established major league players.

 

I acknowledge there are most likely dozens of examples in those 1,000,000,001 where you'd end up regretting the move.

How do you know that they were not offered in trade and were not wanted? What is the point in trading potential for a player you could pick up for veteran's minimum in free agency?

Well, I know that Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 of the vast, overwhelming majority of prospects that amount to nothing. 

 

It's the next market inefficiency. I should patent it.

That is the reality of minor league baseball. It has been that way for a long time.  There used to be many more levels of minor league ball.  They got rid of them long ago. They are talking about cutting back the draft and minor leagues even more. It is not a new idea

I believe Chief's point is not about these two on particular, but in putting so much value into prospects..... It's a pattern, not a one off.

It could be said of any of the millions of prospects that he should have been traded. There is no value in a prospect unless another team values them highly.

If you take a look at that 2013 draft, there really wasn't a lot of talent available.  Kind of takes the sting out of Stewart not turning out.  There weren't many guys in the 1st round that look like MLB regulars, and 2 of them were drafted before Kohl so the Twins didn't even have a shot at them.  Only 4 players drafted 4-31 overall have more than 2 bWAR.  

Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 why you never, ever resist trading "prospects" for established major league players.

 

I acknowledge there are most likely dozens of examples in those 1,000,000,001 where you'd end up regretting the move.

Never, ever resist trading "prospects" for whatever the market will bear in the way of established major league players? Am I interpreting this right?

We can't just say trade the dang prospects, but only the ones who flunk out or get injured.

I don't have to name dozens to make the point that, sometimes, you resist. I'll try to counter your position with a dozen examples or so.

What do you think the club would have fetched in the way of established major league players for these prospects: Carew, Puckett, Oliva, Blyleven, Mauer, Hrbek, Knoblauch, Hunter, Radke, and A.J. Pierzynski? I am convinced every one of those would have been catastrophic one-sided trades.

And once Pierzynski became an established major league player, weren't prospects Liriano and Nathan, and Boof too, an awfully nice return? And once Liriano was an established major league player, wasn't Eduardo Escobar, a guy with all of 45 MLB games under his belt, a nice prospect to get in return? How about veteran Aguilera for prospects Viola and Tapani in 1989?

I don't want these guys to avoid trading prospects like Ryan did, I want the opposite to happen. And I want the trades to never, ever create a shortage, and instead come from a surplus. And I'd love it if it always involved a redundancy among established major league players who are blocking the next Gaetti, Knoblauch, Morneau, or Johan Santana (wishful, I know).

The reason I favor trading proven players for prospects as often as possible is because established major league players are valuable, often at peak value, and while prospects flunk out at a high rate, it's game-changing when you land a future star on the cheap.

I'd trade Jake Cave for Luis Gill in a New York nanosecond.

If you take a look at that 2013 draft, there really wasn't a lot of talent available.  Kind of takes the sting out of Stewart not turning out.  There weren't many guys in the 1st round that look like MLB regulars, and 2 of them were drafted before Kohl so the Twins didn't even have a shot at them.  Only 4 players drafted 4-31 overall have more than 2 bWAR.  

It's true that 2013 is looking like a down year (although players like Tim Anderson and Hunter Dozier are certainly going to be adding value to their clubs for the next few years); only Aaron Judge has really emerged as a great player. 2014 is definitely looking much more productive already...but it doesn't change the fact that the Twins had a top 5 pick bust.

But your math is a little arbitrary. here's what round 1 looked like post twins pick for bWAR in 2019 and career-wise for players with 2+ bWAR: Austin Meadows (3.8 in 2019, 3.6 career), Hunter Renfroe (2.6 & 6.2), Tim Anderson (4.0 & 10.2), Marco Gonzalez (3.2 & 5.4), Aaron Judge (5.4 & 18.6), Sean Manaea (1.4 & 8.7), Michael Lorenzen (2.0 & 4.4), Corey Knebel (0.3 & 4.3)

Which doesn't even include Hunter Dozier, who was 2.1 bWAR in 2019 after a rough 2018.

but Kohl Stewart was the start of a stretch that hasn't gone so great for the twins in drafts: Stewart, Nick Gordon (jury still out, looks like an MLB player to me in the next year either with the twins or elsewhere) and Tyler Jay (out of baseball). Two out of three years busting on your first round pick when all three of them fell between 4-6 is rough on an organization.

Milwaukee says hi.

Milwaukee may not be our best poster child to bolster a MLB player versus prospect discussion.

Personally, I think it's a more complicated thing anyway, but back to Milwaukee:

For 2019, their player payroll exploded by almost $33M a larger dollar increase than all but NYY ($38M) and PHI ($45M). They ended the year behind 10 other clubs in the power rankings, have the 29th-best farm system according to Fangraphs, and at roughly $125M, don't have a lot of wiggle room in the budget. A tight window.

The Yelich trade was terrific, but it doesn't support an argument that the MLB player side of trades is a surefire way to go. Even looking at the Yelich trade, Brinson started his MLB career, as did Yamamoto and Diaz, and Monte Harrison is a Top 100 prospect. May end up being a good deal for both clubs. FanGraphs thinks Miami's farm system is the 4th-best in baseball, and their payroll is $50M less than Milwaukee's. Might be a club that turns a GM into a superstar.