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  • Offseason Blueprint: Hooking a Big Fish


    Ted Schwerzler

    There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins greatest need this offseason is pitching. The front office has stated their focus will be on arms defined as “impact” and filling out a rotation that’s virtually empty is a must. With the premiere arms having plenty of suitors, the Twins could turn to what they did best in 2019.

    Image courtesy of © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

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    Every team in baseball should be salivating at the thought of adding either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to their starting rotation. Young aces simply don’t hit the free agent market often, and when they do the costs will be substantial. Minnesota can afford either (and even both), but I’d expect Cole to look at the West Coast or New York, while Strasburg returns to D.C. with on a hefty raise. That doesn’t mean all is lost for the Twins, but how they react is where this narrative begins.

    Going into 2019 the front office suggested a wait and see approach that was built on the premise of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano establishing their value. The former looks the part of a star (when healthy), and the latter showed he’s one of the best power hitters in the game. Neither of them was a linchpin in the 101-win season though, and Rocco Baldelli got strong performance by utilizing the full sum of his parts. Buxton and Sano can be key cogs, but the winning was as much alongside them as opposed to being because of them.

    Now with an established infrastructure of developmental talent, a big-league roster capable of competing with anyone, and opportunity as abundant as it may ever be, it’s time to follow in the footsteps of recent World Series winners and begin to capitalize on the window.

    I’d hardly be shocked if the win total takes a slight step backwards, but the goal is an extended presence into October. Here’s how that happens in 2020:

    1. Cron is the odd man out in arbitration deals.

    After a nagging thumb injury in 2019, Cron should be all systems go in 2020. He was great before the thumb issue flared up, and I certainly have no problem with the Twins offering him an arbitration deal. Unfortunately, this projection includes a roster crunch, so C.J. becomes the lone arbitration-eligible player to not be tendered a new deal.

    2. Make Anthony Rendon the big splash paying him $33 million for eight years.

    Last offseason I liked the idea of Josh Donaldson coming to the Twins. He was a former superstar and could be had at a discount. Going home to Georgia he had a very good bounce-back year. With plenty of money to spend, and the top two pitchers likely off the board, the next superstar opportunity is a better one. Anthony Rendon is an MVP-level talent, has been incredibly consistent, and joins one of the best lineups in baseball. I’m not sure Miguel Sano needs to move across the diamond yet, but there’s no reason this isn’t a good enough opportunity for him to do so.

    3. Sign Zack Wheeler to a four-year, $72 million contract.

    At the top of Minnesota’s impact pitching list should be Zack Wheeler. Hiss secondary numbers are drool-inducing, and he’s already got plenty of velocity for Wes Johnson to work with. Allowing the Twins pitching coach to pull more from the 29-year-old and Baldelli would have a very impressive one-two punch at the top of his rotation.

    4. Sign Jake Odorizzi to a three-year, $36 million contract.

    The Twins smartly handed Odorizzi a qualifying offer. He could take that and return at $17.8 million which would be just fine. It may also ward off some competition for his services, keeping the bidding on a longer-term deal. Two-years doesn’t seem enticing for the former Rays hurler if the alternative is a gaudy one-year pact, so go three and bolster the middle of the group.

    5. Trade Eddie Rosario and Jhoan Duran to the Colorado Rockies for Jon Gray.

    Under team control for two more years, the former third overall pick is where I’m setting my sights in a swap for the Minnesota outfielder. Rosario can probably hit a boatload of bombas in the Rockies, while Gray can be expected to build on a career year in 2019. His FIP has suggested there’s more than the ERA has told us for a few years, and while the walks could be reduced, the strikeout stuff is going to play anywhere. At worst you’ve got a number four starter, and the upside is a guy to contend with Wheeler and Jose Berrios at the top. Duran was the main piece in the Eduardo Escobar deal, and he looked impressive during his first full season in the organization.

    6. Sign Alex Gordon to a one-year, $2 million contract.

    Prioritizing defense is a must for the Twins in 2020. With Eddie Rosario gone, adding another plus-glove into the outfield mix as depth makes a lot of sense. Gordon isn’t the player he once was, but he’s still above average in the field and can play left as often as Marwin Gonzalez is elsewhere. Ideally, I’d like some center field depth, but I’d tell Max Kepler and Jake Cave to be as prepared as possible coming into spring training. Gordon is done with his massive Royals payday, and the $4 million buyout should reduce his 2020 ask as well.

    7. Sign Robinson Chirinos to a one-year, $6 million contract.

    I’d be fine with Jason Castro returning on this same exact deal, if he’s open to it. Chirinos is an excellent backstop with a strong bat, and seemingly an impressive clubhouse presence. He recently wrapped up a season coming just shy of winning a World Series and could help push Minnesota toward that same exact goal.

    8. Sign Drew Pomeranz and Sergio Romo to one-year deals for $3.5 and $3 million.

    The former gives Minnesota a second lefty option in the pen, and his former starting experience should allow for some length as well. A reunion with Romo would work in the clubhouse, and his slider is still as devastating as ever. Neither represent earth-shattering pen arms, but this is the easiest avenue toward improvement.

    Summary

    The most prolific power offense in the history of baseball returns in 2020, but with an added boost. Eddie Rosario ends up being dangled to acquire pitching but getting the best position player on the market makes up for that and then some. Rendon’s bat plays, and his glove may be even more important. I like Marwin in the outfield more than on the dirt, and Alex Gordon provides a defense-first bench option that the Twins haven’t had.

    Yes, the outfield prospects are close, but there’s still a clear path to playing time, and the Opening Day roster starts in a very good place.

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    From a pitching perspective it’s a season of change. Odorizzi is back with Berrios, but the impact is felt from outside the organization. Wheeler represents a second bullet for Minnesota to mold into an ace, and he can bolster the top of the staff even if he doesn’t get there. Gray should benefit from leaving the Rockies, and a better organization can most certainly take his stuff up another level.

    I struggled with the idea of giving Brusdar Graterol a rotation spot out of the gate. He has never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, is coming off just 61 in 2019, and is still just 21-years-old. Ideally, he starts at Triple-A and settles back into starting. That said, I like his arm a good deal better than any fringe fifth starter, and if Minnesota deems that he beats out the likes of Lewis Thorpe then take off the training wheels.

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    If there’s a weak spot to this roster it’s the same area 2019 started out with. The relief corps is composed of internally developed arms, which is only a strength if regression is to be denied. Rogers, May, Duffey, and Littell all return as near certainties. Stashak earned himself an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster, and Devin Smeltzer could be a nice long man in relief. Free agents, one returning, complete the group and Pomeranz looks to have some serious upside.

    Should the Twins find themselves cycling through arms too often out of the pen, or if there’s a lack of production, relief arms at the deadline are among the most easily acquirable commodities.

    ccs-6683-0-47777100-1573504698.png

    When the dust settles this puts the Opening Day payroll at $143.4 million. That’s almost a $30 million jump from 2019, and a step up from the previous high-water mark in 2018 as well. This is the time to build, and this plan leaves the Twins with opportunity to add more in 2021 and puts forth a very strong group to defend their AL Central Division title.

    ~~~

    What would your blueprint look like for the Twins this winter? Download your copy of the Offseason Handbook and use it to construct a champion. Share your vision for discussion in our Create a Blueprint forum thread. Meanwhile, stay tuned to TD as our writers will be formulating offseason plans from different perspectives all week long.

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    It's hard to argue they need payroll flexibility in the same post you argue they shouldn't sign players to long term deals.....what good is payroll flexibility if you won't use it?

     

    How do you propose they fill four-seven rotation spots this off season, without spending money (and still be a great team)?

    I already proposed it. Sign Bumgarner and Odorizzi and trade for Mike Minor and Sonny Gray. All but the Minor acquisition solidifies the rotation for 3+ years.

     

    I never said don't use the payroll flexibility. Quite the contrary. Go spend it. I'm simply suggesting a means to acquire higher upside pitching talent without spending a lot of money or committing to a long term contract, which I think the Twins absolutely need to do in order to fill out a 26 man roster.

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    Not committing to the future is how you need four new starting pitchers going into a new year....they don't need more of that.

     

    As you have noted since the season ended, the Twins have 4 spots to fill in the rotation and there are numerous teams looking for starting pitching. Many of them with more revenue than the Twins. The difficulty of filling all those spots in a single year has been pointed out by several people here. Adding a solid SP on a 1 year deal has no down side. Put together the best possible team for 2020 and address one spot (hopefully) in the rotation next year.

     

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    1) Roy Smalley recently talked about he would want to go out and get Rendon, too, only he would trade Sano. I like the idea of keeping Sano more. So I thought about it, and .... nah. If I'm going to go all in on a position player like that, he has to hit left-handed. I want that #4 guy to plug between Cruz and Sano next year. (Rendon would obviously make more sense in 2021, when Cruz is likely gone.)

     

    2) Another blueprint with Gray. He's getting pretty popular around here. 

     

    3) The estimates we put in the Handbook are crowdsourced among the authors but it's several weeks before other published estimates. Every year we look back at them and see how we did. There are always a few surprises, and it's very common we're off by a million or two per year for players. That can be a problem with several in a row are low, and when the payroll goes up to $140+. So yes, this seems a little overpacked with talent, identifying some of the ones that seem a little low now. 

     

    Currently the one I'm least comfortable with is Odo at 3/36. I'd have been a lot more comfortable with 3/39 or 3/42. But that draft pick could weigh it down to our estimate. 

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    This is a very well thought out plan, couple nitpics:

    I think your dollars are light everywhere, except Rendon. Pomeranz will get double that, for example.

    Way light on the Gray trade, as well. Rosario just doesnt have much trade value.

    I want no part of Romo. His smoke and mirrors were fantastic this season, but smoke and mirrors never last.

    I think Alex Gordon already stated he will only play for the Royals, didn't he?

     

    I agree the dollars are light on the pitchers. And in fact with Pomeranz, I'd want him with an option year if not at least a 2nd guaranteed year, I think as a full time reliever he's going to be very good and expensive if he's a free agent again this time next year. 

     

    I also previously thought Rosario wouldn't have a ton of trade value, but I now see MLBTR is predicting $15M/year 3 and 4 year deals for Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. I tend to think MLBTR is way off, but if they're not, Rosario probably actually does have quite a bit of value. Though I'd think the Twins might still have to chip in at least a 3rd piece to get Gray.

     

    Romo didn't excite me at the deadline, but his smoke and mirrors has lasted for a long time. They can bring him back if they want. If they don't, that'd be fine too.

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    False. 100%. If the Twins offer up the highest bid, he would be here. Some of you guys need to quit that line of thinking. The reason we haven't gotten these types of guys in the past has nothing to do with where we are located. It had to do with us being a ways off the top bid that those types signed for. 

     

    I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be.

     

    We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.

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    You think it is LIKELY that a minor league pitcher will be better than Berrios? I don't even know how to respond to that.

    I think that Duran's next 6 years (his control time with the Twins) will better than Berrios's next 6.  Same way that in the 2016 offseason it could be predicted that Berrios's (who was then a minor leaguer) next 6 years with the Twins would be better than eg. Gibson's (who was then a major leaguer).

     

    Duran has higher ceiling than Berrios, IMHO.  Simple :)

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    A few things;

    1. Sano and Buxton each accumulated 2.7 WAR last year, placing them 5th and 6th in the lineup.  In terms of WAR/150, they're 6th and 4th, respectively.  They were key cogs in the Twins success, and most assuredly, not along for the ride.
    2. No way Odo takes a 3/$36M deal.  He can get basically half of that just this year with the QO, so taking that deal implies Odorizzi's camp thinks he would not be able to get a 2 year contract for $9M/year after 2020, when he woudl have no draft pick compensation attached.  if the Twins want Odo for the next 3 years, they're going to have to get somewhere in the $42-$45 range.
    3. Alex Gordon makes no sense for this team, whether an outfielder is traded or not.  From an offensive standpoint, Buxton and Kepler are better options, as is Rosario (unless you want more OBP in return for a big power drop).  Cave and Wade are probably better too; they certainly have more upside.  And with Kiriloff and Larnach holding their own at age 21 and 22 in AA, that's 7 options better than Gordon, before even mentioning Gonzalez and Royce Lewis should he be moved to the outfield.  If we feel like we need more outfield defense despite having the 2nd best CF and 3rd best RF (according to fangraphs), than just go sign a really fast guy from someone's minor league system.  Or alternatively, sign Billy Hamilton who is far superior defensively to Gordon, and would actually steal some bases too.  All that being said, outfield is the last place the Twins should be looking to spend time or money this offseason.
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    As you have noted since the season ended, the Twins have 4 spots to fill in the rotation and there are numerous teams looking for starting pitching. Many of them with more revenue than the Twins. The difficulty of filling all those spots in a single year has been pointed out by several people here. Adding a solid SP on a 1 year deal has no down side. Put together the best possible team for 2020 and address one spot (hopefully) in the rotation next year.

     

    The post I responded to stated one year deals are exactly what the TWins should be doing....not one, one year deal......

     

    I have no issue with one, one year deal. I have issues with multiple one year deals. Nothing more or less.

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    I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be.

     

    We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.

     

    You are right when it comes to close dollars I'm sure. When its another year on a contract though? Or another 10-15 million over another bid? Most times they would take the better deal. 

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    The post I responded to stated one year deals are exactly what the TWins should be doing....not one, one year deal......

     

    I have no issue with one, one year deal. I have issues with multiple one year deals. Nothing more or less.

     

    Sorry, I missed that part. Just heard on MLB radio Odorizzi is strongly considering taking the QO so we might have a SP on a 1 year deal by the end of the day.

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    Sorry, I missed that part. Just heard on MLB radio Odorizzi is strongly considering taking the QO so we might have a SP on a 1 year deal by the end of the day.

     

    If Odorizzi does accept the QO, and if the rumors that his agent had already met with Toronto are true (they may not have been, his agent also represents Randall Grichuck), then it probably means Odorizzi already had a feel that at best Toronto's hypothetical offer would be only a minimal improvement to the QO salary.

     

    If so, that probably is a pretty good indicator that salaries, particularly to pitchers, are going to be lower than expected once again this offseason. Which probably means the Twins can be in play for anyone with mutual interest, but also probably means there won't be much free agent action until 2020.

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    Sorry, I missed that part. Just heard on MLB radio Odorizzi is strongly considering taking the QO so we might have a SP on a 1 year deal by the end of the day.

     

    This does create an interesting dilemna for the FO. If they can't get him to negotiate a longer deal, do they sign another guy to a one year deal? If so, that sets up next off season to be potentially (likely) needing to add 1-2 new SPs again (and that's assuming that 1-2 of their minor league guys step up).

     

    I hope that "forces" them to be more active for the first or second tier types....

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    This does create an interesting dilemna for the FO. If they can't get him to negotiate a longer deal, do they sign another guy to a one year deal? If so, that sets up next off season to be potentially (likely) needing to add 1-2 new SPs again (and that's assuming that 1-2 of their minor league guys step up).

     

    I hope that "forces" them to be more active for the first or second tier types....

     

    I am thinking it makes them bold going after Wheeler / Bumgarner because it reduces risk. It does  make signing both more financially viable. Obviously, it does not make it any easier to attract two top FA starting pitchers when so many team are pursuing SPs but I think it makes them a little bolder. 

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    I am thinking it makes them bold going after Wheeler / Bumgarner because it reduces risk. It does  make signing both more financially viable. Obviously, it does not make it any easier to attract two top FA starting pitchers when so many team are pursuing SPs but I think it makes them a little bolder. 

     

    Over pay them. Get them in here. If those are the 2 your team/front office has determined will give you the best chance to win, go to them right away with a big number that fits within your budget and lets not let any of the big boys have their chance at them. 

     

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    Over pay them. Get them in here. If those are the 2 your team/front office has determined will give you the best chance to win, go to them right away with a big number that fits within your budget and lets not let any of the big boys have their chance at them. 

     

    It just does not generally work that way with the top guys, especially with so many teams (high revenue teams) looking for SPs. It does not matter what you offer, their agent is going to see if they can get more or get the same amount from a team they prefer.   

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    The post I responded to stated one year deals are exactly what the TWins should be doing....not one, one year deal......

     

    I have no issue with one, one year deal. I have issues with multiple one year deals. Nothing more or less.

    If it takes one year deals to get the best quality pitching, then do one year deals.

     

    My concern is now *how* we get top level pitching here, but the simple fact that we do.

     

    I feel like you expect the Twins to go out and sign 4 top level pitchers to market level contracts (or above). That's foolish. I don't care if they have 5 starters on 1 year deals every single year, so long as those 5 starters are higher end and better quality.

     

    The reality of our situation is we need to be savvy and creative in acquiring pitching talent, because even though the FO is spouting fairytales about increased spending, we are never going to match payrolls with the Bostons, NYs and LAs. Do it in any way you can, especially if it costs lower than market value. The market the Twins will consistently be in includes the likes of Martin Perez, Kevin Correia, and Shelby Miller. We are begging for the second tier Free Agents, ferpetessake.

     

    Mike Minor was an ace this past year. He would fit towards the top of the Twins rotation really nicely. A significant upgrade over Randy Dobnak, imo. This proverbial "window" typically lasts 4-ish years for mid-market teams (see Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, etc.)

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    If it takes one year deals to get the best quality pitching, then do one year deals.

    My concern is now *how* we get top level pitching here, but the simple fact that we do.

    I feel like you expect the Twins to go out and sign 4 top level pitchers to market level contracts (or above). That's foolish. I don't care if they have 5 starters on 1 year deals every single year, so long as those 5 starters are higher end and better quality.

    The reality of our situation is we need to be savvy and creative in acquiring pitching talent, because even though the FO is spouting fairytales about increased spending, we are never going to match payrolls with the Bostons, NYs and LAs. Do it in any way you can, especially if it costs lower than market value. The market the Twins will consistently be in includes the likes of Martin Perez, Kevin Correia, and Shelby Miller. We are begging for the second tier Free Agents, ferpetessake.

    Mike Minor was an ace this past year. He would fit towards the top of the Twins rotation really nicely. A significant upgrade over Randy Dobnak, imo. This proverbial "window" typically lasts 4-ish years for mid-market teams (see Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, etc.)

     

    I've never once said they can get 4 good pitchers in 1 season. That's my entire point....you can't. Hence, you can fill your roster with 4 guys on one year deals (or in this case, deals that all expire the same year).

     

    That is literally my point.

     

    No one, not one person, has asked the TWins to spend as much as the Yankees or Red Sox. But, they have 40-55 million in budget room right now. They can afford 1 great pitcher on a multi year deal. Heck, they agree with me. They bid the 2nd most for Darvish two years ago.....

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    I've never once said they can get 4 good pitchers in 1 season. That's my entire point....you can't. Hence, you can fill your roster with 4 guys on one year deals (or in this case, deals that all expire the same year).

     

    That is literally my point.

     

    No one, not one person, has asked the TWins to spend as much as the Yankees or Red Sox. But, they have 40-55 million in budget room right now. They can afford 1 great pitcher on a multi year deal. Heck, they agree with me. They bid the 2nd most for Darvish two years ago.....

    I'm confused as to what your point is, though. You say you don't want multiple guys like Minor (simply because of an expiring contract) but then also say we only have enough money to afford one good pitcher. I'm saying if 5 guys like Mike Minor are available and affordable, go get them all.

    If that leads to needing to replenish the pitching staff next year again, so be it. Actually, I'd honestly prefer more of that.

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    I'm confused as to what your point is, though. You say you don't want multiple guys like Minor (simply because of an expiring contract) but then also say we only have enough money to afford one good pitcher. I'm saying if 5 guys like Mike Minor are available and affordable, go get them all.

    If that leads to needing to replenish the pitching staff next year again, so be it. Actually, I'd honestly prefer more of that.

    Next year's free agent class is much worse.

     

    My point is clear.... It is not likely a team can acquire four good starting pitchers in one off season. They can't afford to make the same mistake they did last year again, having one pitcher on the roster signed past this year.

     

    The Twins can afford plenty of pitching, but that doesn't mean they can convince four good pitchers to come here.... It's not about money. It's about mutual desire. Free agency and trades are about two parties agreeing. It's hard to do that for four times in one year.

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    Next year's free agent class is much worse.

    My point is clear.... It is not likely a team can acquire four good starting pitchers in one off season. They can't afford to make the same mistake they did last year again, having one pitcher on the roster signed past this year.

    The Twins can afford plenty of pitching, but that doesn't mean they can convince four good pitchers to come here.... It's not about money. It's about mutual desire. Free agency and trades are about two parties agreeing. It's hard to do that for four times in one year.

    Valid. 4 openings every year probably is a tough task.

    I guess my point is the "window" usually only last 4-ish years. I'd love to believe the Twins will be ultra competitive for the next decade, but odds are, they won't. If it takes 1-year deals to get upper level pitching here while the window is open, I just wouldn't want to rule it out because it makes you work hard next offseason too.

     

    "Mutual Desire" almost always starts with money, and you're going to have a hard time convincing me otherwise.

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