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The Twins are in prime position to add high-level players. The rotation, while not a clear strength, is deeper than its been in Derek Falvey’s entire tenure. There is no reason to add a Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer or J.A. Happ type this offseason. It’s time to make it count on both sides of the ball.
MOVE ONE: Sign Carlos Correa for eight years, $256M ($32 million per) with a player opt-out after year four.
This move may be the simplest but also the most difficult to pull off. Correa, 28, is a two-way star in the midst of his prime. The Twins have a gaping hole at shortstop with no clear healthy solution in the organization. Correa’s 5.4 r-Wins Above Replacement in 2022 were the most by a Twin since Brian Dozier ’s magical 2016. Correa has hit .281/.360/.481 (130 OPS+) while saving the most runs among shortstops over the last four seasons.
This contract structure keeps the Twins well away from the dreaded 10-year, $300 million pricetag. Correa sacrifices some assured money for the opt-out after year four, which also increases the risk for the Twins. They get four guaranteed years through Correa’s age-31 season. For Correa, he gets the opportunity to re-enter the market if he stays healthy and impactful. If not, he can opt-in to the rest of the deal for another $128 million.
MOVE TWO: Sign José Abreu for two years, $41 million with a third year $20 million team option ($5 million buyout)
Once you make the long-term move for Correa, it’s an organizational commitment to further supplementation. The Twins don’t *need* a first baseman but this is simply a move for top-level talent. Abreu, 35, isn’t expected to return to the White Sox after hitting .304/.378/.446 (133 OPS+) in his best full season since 2017. Abreu’s power numbers dipped but he ranked in the top 10% in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and expected weighted on-base average.
Abreu would make $18 million per year in 2022 and 2023 with the Twins holding an option on year three. The total guarantee is $41 million, a pretty hefty commitment to a soon-to-be 36-year-old first baseman. Abreu is worth it and would add another dangerous right-handed bat alongside Correa, Byron Buxton and José Miranda . Plus, taking him from the White Sox would be sweet with a capital S.
MOVE THREE: Trade SS Brooks Lee, LHP Jovani Moran to Milwaukee Brewers for RHP Brandon Woodruff
In one swift trade, the Twins finally acquire the ace they’ve been searching for. Since 2020, Woodruff ranks 16th in ERA (2.84), eighth in strikeouts (492) and eighth in b-Wins Above Replacement (10.4). Woodruff has been more valuable, by bWAR, than Gerrit Cole, Luis Castillo and Yu Darvish over the last three seasons. Woodruff is a bonafide No. 1 starter and is a luxury as the No. 2 in Milwaukee’s rotation. I think they’ll move Woodruff (or Corbin Burnes ) this winter as they’re both set for free agency following 2023.
Losing Lee would be a major blow to the Twins’ already average farm system. Moran’s departure wouldn’t be easy either, as the lefty posted a 1.78 FIP in 40 ⅔ innings at the Major League level in 2022. It takes money to make money, as they say. Woodruff is under team control at modest salaries for the next two seasons. It’s a high-risk, win-now type of move.
MOVE FOUR: Find new homes for 3B Gio Urshela, OF Max Kepler
If the Twins add the salary above, they’ll likely shed in other areas. Gio Urshela had a nice season, posting up 144 times with a .338 on-base percentage and solid defense at third. He’s also due for $9 million in arbitration with Miranda waiting to take his spot. If you add Abreu, you have to deal away from the glut at first and third. Urshela is the clear odd man out.
Kepler’s time as a Twin seems to be running out. Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff could be the future of the corners in the outfield, leaving Kepler and his $8.5 million salary expendable. It remains to be seen whether any team will desire Kepler more after the institution of the shift ban. These two moves are to transfer funds and free up space elsewhere. This is a self-imposed payroll, of course.
MOVE FIVE: Sign C Omar Narváez for two years, $14M
The Twins are in need of a quality backstop to pair with Ryan Jeffers . Narváez provides the coveted left-handed bat they could use. Narváez, 30, is coming off a poor offensive season, hitting only .206/.292/.305 with a career-low 71 OPS+ (not counting the shortened Covid season). It was unlike him, as his career OPS is right at the league average (.728) and 30 points higher than catchers during that span (.698).
Narváez is a quality pitch framer with below-average pop times behind the plate. At the plate, he owns a career 106 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. With Jeffers at a career 125 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, this feels like a platoon duo made in sabermetric heaven.
MOVE SIX: Sign RP Kenley Jansen for two years, $28M
The Twins loved using Jhoan Durán in the highest leverage spots in 2022, relying on their electric young arm to get them out of jams at any time. By signing Jansen, the Twins can continue to float Durán throughout the late innings while designating the ninth for one of the best closers of this generation.
Jansen, 35, continues to be one of the most consistently reliable relievers in baseball. Opponents hit just .192/.265/.346 off Jansen in 2022, with his underlying numbers - notably a 2.34 expected ERA - showing he's just as good as ever. Jansen's cutter is one of the best pitches of all time, regularly producing swings and misses or very weak contact. Jansen owns a career 36% strikeout rate and has never had an ERA over 3.71 in 13 seasons. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more experienced reliever.
The Twins would boast a lineup centered around Luis Arraez, Correa, Abreu and Byron Buxton with a host of exciting young bats. In the rotation, Woodruff leads a deep and potentially very good group. The bullpen’s upside would be massive. Where the team lacks defensively it makes up for with a star-studded lineup. The Twins would likely be the favorite to win the American League Central and maybe more. The total cost would be about $154 million, a considerable bump and the highest payroll in team history.
A man can dream, right?
What do you think of this blueprint? Comment below!
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