Notebook: Arraez to LF?

With the possible exception of pitcher, left field is the least important position in terms of fielding.

A truly deadened baseball for 2021 could produce more possible base hits to track down in the outfield. Outfield range might become more important than recently needed.

Araez will get some at bats playing 2nd and 3rd early in the season as well but I think he will get the majority in LF. You want his bat in the lineup and that is the best spot to get him consistent ABs.

Also there will be injuries and he will fill in for those where needed. The game isn’t played on paper there will be at bats to go around as the season progresses. Makes sense early to keep Kiriloff in the minors and save the service time and give Cave, Arraez and Rooker the LF at bats in April.

That fWAR twit bit is a little swayed. If you are going to add Cruz, you first must mark him as a loss, too. Take his 2.4 out that shouldn't really be added, and you have lost 6.4, added, 5.9, for a net loss of .5. That is more representative of the difference.

It’s not hard to convincingly argue that the roster has taken a step back from last year. In fact, it’s really easy. The injury issues aren’t just going away. Cruz isn’t going to OPS 1.000 again. Maeda isn’t going to be Cy Young runner up. The starting rotation took a step back, talent-wise (Rich Hill and Odorizzi are better than Shoemaker and Happ). The bullpen took a step back (anyone see Robles’ numbers last year?).

The Twins’ don’t need to improve, according to Nick. Is that the hill we’re going to make our stand on now? We haven’t been remotely competitive in the playoffs, including last year. The White Sox will be better.

That list of additions/losses is so purposefully misleading that it should be flagged by Twitter. That one takes the heavyweight championship belt.

IMO 1B is the best place for Arraez, I'd like Sano transition back to 3B whenever needed because he's our best option. They should play Arraez in LF only when absolutely necessary, because there is a lot of ground to cover.

I agree that that addition and subtraction of WAR is misleading. The subtraction of Rosario's WAR will be supplemented by Kiriloff and the addition of Simmons will increase the WAR of many players and pitchers. Although I'm not a fan of the addition to the rotation. I believe they are counting on and want to somewhere down the line figure in Duran and Balazovic. And the BP I believe is much better than last year.

The way to look at it is, have they upgraded where needed? Have they plugged the holes? Have they met the budget? I believe in the most part is yes

Arreaz at first base? How tall is he? What's his catch radius?

You've got to be kidding me ... 

That list of additions/losses is so purposefully misleading that it should be flagged by Twitter. That one takes the heavyweight championship belt.

While I can understand feeling like Cruz should be a wash the fact is he was a Free Agent. If the Twins were unable to sign him then he wouldn't be on the team and then whatever player they signed would be there instead of Cruz.  The Twins chose to sign him instead of player X thus the inclusion. 

It is a bit misleading to not include him in the lose column as well but technically he wasn't lost.  The only issue I see is that you cannot have more WAR just by resigning your own player back onto the team and that is what his calculation does.

You can argue that having the same player doesn't make the team "better" but losing him certainly could have made the team worse.  The better the team gets the harder it becomes to improve.

It’s not hard to convincingly argue that the roster has taken a step back from last year. In fact, it’s really easy. The injury issues aren’t just going away. Cruz isn’t going to OPS 1.000 again. Maeda isn’t going to be Cy Young runner up. The starting rotation took a step back, talent-wise (Rich Hill and Odorizzi are better than Shoemaker and Happ). The bullpen took a step back (anyone see Robles’ numbers last year?).

The Twins’ don’t need to improve, according to Nick. Is that the hill we’re going to make our stand on now? We haven’t been remotely competitive in the playoffs, including last year. The White Sox will be better.

That list of additions/losses is so purposefully misleading that it should be flagged by Twitter. That one takes the heavyweight championship belt.

I agree that Maeda and Cruz are not likely to be as good as they were last year. What about the guys who are likely to be be more productive. Donaldson played very little and Buxton missed what was the equivalent to 1/3 of the season. Sano and Garver were beasts in 2019 but really struggled in the short season. Polanco had a wRC+ of 80. We should definitely expect better in 2021. .

I like the moves made in the infield. Definitely think they are lacking pitching depth both in the rotation and bullpen and that concerns me. I think this years team will be much different in style. We will see if they are better.

It’s not hard to convincingly argue that the roster has taken a step back from last year. In fact, it’s really easy. The injury issues aren’t just going away. Cruz isn’t going to OPS 1.000 again. Maeda isn’t going to be Cy Young runner up. The starting rotation took a step back, talent-wise (Rich Hill and Odorizzi are better than Shoemaker and Happ). The bullpen took a step back (anyone see Robles’ numbers last year?).

The Twins’ don’t need to improve, according to Nick. Is that the hill we’re going to make our stand on now? We haven’t been remotely competitive in the playoffs, including last year. The White Sox will be better.

That list of additions/losses is so purposefully misleading that it should be flagged by Twitter. That one takes the heavyweight championship belt.

Sounds like your stein is half empty, but I hear you. However being a Twins fans requires we always remember that hope springs eternal. Or as true Minnesotans like to say; we eternally hope for spring. Me? I'm going to top off my stein, kick back and let the bloop hits fall where they may.

Interesting column.  Like many others the fact that Cruz was an addition, but not a loss too really skewed the WAR lists.  Put him on both or remove him because his signing does not raise or lower the bar.

As for all the players who had down years last year - we need to hold back on rosy or negative reactions.  In this strange time we are dealing with hope, not facts.  

I am not excited about Arraez as an everyday LF - I want Kiriloff up right away.  I know service time - but we have two choices - extend or watch him go when arbitration gets too expensive like his predecessor in LF.  That extra year means nothing.  I love Arraez, but if he is the Marwin of 2021 then he has to move around and not take and block a position. 

I am still wondering who backs up Buxton if the injury plague continues?  Cave, Arraez and Kepler are not good CF options.  If we want defense they better have a good CF in St Paul to step in. 

Arraez will get a little time in LF but he is the only 2B/SS/3B option on the bench! All three starters have had chronic, nagging injuries the past two years. I'm surprised the Twins haven't added a 2nd utility player. Gonzalez and Adrianza were both needed in the IF many times the past two years.

Arraez will get a little time in LF but he is the only 2B/SS/3B option on the bench! All three starters have had chronic, nagging injuries the past two years. I'm surprised the Twins haven't added a 2nd utility player. Gonzalez and Adrianza were both needed in the IF many times the past two years.

I suspect Nick Gordon is the answer to your riddle.

That fWAR twit bit is a little swayed. If you are going to add Cruz, you first must mark him as a loss, too. Take his 2.4 out that shouldn't really be added, and you have lost 6.4, added, 5.9, for a net loss of .5. That is more representative of the difference.

Good point. Might Pineda be an add as he missed so much of last season? I think the Twins are also counting on a healthy Donaldson - fingers crossed.

I suspect Nick Gordon is the answer to your riddle.

I hope so, or else we're going to be seeing Tzu-Wei Lin or JT Riddle on the 26 man roster, and that won't be ideal. I like Blankenhorn's bat, but he won't be playing SS in the majors.

If Arraez is going to play a lot of OF, I hope they work on his stride as he persues the baseball. Can't be taking those little baby steps trying to get to the ball. Cue up the Devon White video.

I hope so, or else we're going to be seeing Tzu-Wei Lin or JT Riddle on the 26 man roster, and that won't be ideal. I like Blankenhorn's bat, but he won't be playing SS in the majors.

If Simmons gets injured they are not going to use one of the AAAA guys. Their 1st move would be to put Polanco back at SS and use Arraez or Blankenhorn at 2B.

If Simmons gets injured they are not going to use one of the AAAA guys. Their 1st move would be to put Polanco back at SS and use Arraez or Blankenhorn at 2B.

Right, but then once Polanco is at SS, you have no players on the team who can backup him up at SS, not to mention that Arraez is the primary backup 3B and he'd probably be a bottom-tier fielder there. I could see them going with a glove-first SS/3B on the bench, if Gordon can't be that guy.

Interesting column.  Like many others the fact that Cruz was an addition, but not a loss too really skewed the WAR lists.  Put him on both or remove him because his signing does not raise or lower the bar.

 

As for all the players who had down years last year - we need to hold back on rosy or negative reactions.  In this strange time we are dealing with hope, not facts.  

 

I am not excited about Arraez as an everyday LF - I want Kiriloff up right away.  I know service time - but we have two choices - extend or watch him go when arbitration gets too expensive like his predecessor in LF.  That extra year means nothing.  I love Arraez, but if he is the Marwin of 2021 then he has to move around and not take and block a position. 

 

I am still wondering who backs up Buxton if the injury plague continues?  Cave, Arraez and Kepler are not good CF options.  If we want defense they better have a good CF in St Paul to step in. 

What about Broxton? Celestino is said to be ready defensively so they could use him if really needed. I also disagree that Kepler is not a suitable back up. He might not be quite as good as a pure CF but they are not going to get a back up with Kepler's bat. Assuming Buxton is not injured right out of the gate, they could use Kepler in CF while auditioning Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker or use it to get ABs for Arraez.

Kirilloff is not going to be here opening day. He has not proven to be ready and they have plenty of options. There is not a GM in this league (IMO) who would bring him up in this scenario. To lose a year in his prime for 3 weeks now would be short-sighted to the point of incompetence. 

Is there evidence that Falvene has manipulated service time in their tenure.  I mean legit manipulate that many are expecting for Kirilloff?  I am not sold that if he hits well in spring that he will not break with team, simply to get one more year of team control or an extra half a year of cost control.  Maybe they will, but I do not recall a player they have actually done that too.  Of course if he does not hit well in spring this will give good reason to keep him down, but if he rakes, I think he will break with team.  

If Arraez does play LF it will not help our defense at all.  Unless he has increased his range I can see way too many balls falling in his area.  The only way I let him go out there regularly is if he is hitting amazing. 

Happy Hamilton passed waivers, mainly for his sake because he has bounced around so many teams.  I bet we will see him during the season.  Many times teams will wait until after rosters set to pass guys through waivers to make room again.  When the market gets flooded with waiver guys teams have more decisions to make on claiming. 

Is there evidence that Falvene has manipulated service time in their tenure.  I mean legit manipulate that many are expecting for Kirilloff?  I am not sold that if he hits well in spring that he will not break with team, simply to get one more year of team control or an extra half a year of cost control.  Maybe they will, but I do not recall a player they have actually done that too.  Of course if he does not hit well in spring this will give good reason to keep him down, but if he rakes, I think he will break with team.  

 

 

One could argue they already manipulated Buxton's service time as he was injured and once healed they never brought him back as it would have impacted his service time.  It looked pretty blatant at the time to me but I am sure it could have been justified if needed.

They have plenty of reasons to start Kirilloff in the minors as they have Cave, Arraez and potentially Rooker in front of him right now and AK has yet to hit in AAA and there is always that pesky defense to work on, wink, wink. 

If he mashes in spring training or AAA then my guess is things change.  It could get ugly if he has an elite spring training and they decide not to bring him up though.  Even then like I said the Twins have legit reasons to keep him down so it still might not happen.

I guess it comes down to whether you're looking at the roster as a collection of names/talent or as names/performance. From the former, then no...the Twins haven't done all that much to improve the roster, mostly just shuffled things around to fill some holes. They lost some talent, they patched in some other talent.

From an expectation of performance...you could argue they're better positioned. If you get more healthy games from Buxton/Donaldson/Garver, then it's like adding a lot of talent from a production standpoint.

Twins had a good offseason. they didn't have tons of holes to fill, but they also didn't make a big splash move. I do like the depth on this team a lot and some of the young talent might really get a chance to shine this year. should be a really fun team to watch and I'm looking forward to the games.

Right, but then once Polanco is at SS, you have no players on the team who can backup him up at SS, not to mention that Arraez is the primary backup 3B and he'd probably be a bottom-tier fielder there. I could see them going with a glove-first SS/3B on the bench, if Gordon can't be that guy.

It sounds like you want a backup to the backup on the 26 man roster. I don't think too many teams have 3 legit SSs on their major league roster. I think we are in better shape than most having an elite SS and a former all-star as his back-up along with 2 or 3 guys in the minors that could be brought up if we are plagued with injuries.