Nelson Cruz and the Hunt for 500 Home Runs

Nelson Cruz: Great pitch recognition plus the ability to put the bat on the ball with authority makes Nellie one of the most feared hitters in baseball . . . still.

How about helping his HOF case with a World Series ring or three with the Twins at the end of his career?!? Along the way he should get to that 500 HR mark.

So any implication to steroids for Cruz dates back to 2012, over 9yrs ago. Nothing since. So???

He is Ortiz 2.0. He is a well conditioned and experienced and smart hitter who is very well prepared and ready to go unless I see evidence of anything else.

These kind of players come along once in a while. Witness Brady at QB and the recently retired Brees. Sometimes, you just can't quantify a player's development, nor their career projection.

Unfortunately, there still remains the age factor. Baseball has so few players who exceeded normal production past 40yrs old that at some point you just have to expect a loss of ability.

Right now, Cruz looks like he is ready to defy age and have another good/great season while turning 41 soon. Were I to make a bet, despite his greatness, he will be on the market in 2022 as the Twins will move on to younger talent and not take on the risk.

I'm betting on one more good/great season in the sun before a quiet fade with someone else. Bless him if he could achieve the 500HR milestone but I just don't see it.

I remember when I was a young man, I worked for a bricklayer. At around 63, he could work circles around me and I wasn't a slouch. But that was nothing, my boss said he knew a 70+yrs old stone cutter who was stronger than him. I forget how heavy that sledgehammer was but it was very heavy.

The point I want to make is that there are people who are extraordinary, people who amazes us. Cruz is one of those people and he'll reach 500

I think he will do it if NL opens up DH.  That is because I think he will play more than 1 more year and a bottom feeding team might bring him on small deal hoping to flip him late in season for a team that still needs some pop.  He sure does not look he is slowing down yet. 

I do not think he will do it next year.  I think this because I expect a work stoppage next year that will go into regular season for awhile.  The two sides are so far apart on things and cannot seem to even decide if they will have muffins or bagels at the morning meeting.  

I hope he gets to 572 and no more.

So any implication to steroids for Cruz dates back to 2012, over 9yrs ago. Nothing since. So???

He is Ortiz 2.0. He is a well conditioned and experienced and smart hitter who is very well prepared and ready to go unless I see evidence of anything else.

Ortiz has the PED tag as well, though for some reason people are going to overlook it and vite him into the HOF anyway. I would assume Cruz wouldn't get in because of the suspension, but 500 homers, a world series ring and postseason heroics would definitely help his case. 

Mcgwire has 583 home runs and never got close to getting in. He wasn't mentioned on the PED list in the article either. 

If he can get to 45-50 dingers this year then he's got a good shot. I think he'd take a WS ring over hitting 500 though.

I do not think he will do it next year.  I think this because I expect a work stoppage next year that will go into regular season for awhile.  The two sides are so far apart on things and cannot seem to even decide if they will have muffins or bagels at the morning meeting.  

Every game lost is very precious time slipping away when there is little to no margin for that. If there is a significant work stoppage I think that seals it. 500 would not happen.

Twins should extend/sign him for 2022 at 15M and option for 2023 at 10M. He needs to win a ws ring and we have that window wide open with him around and the developing young guys. He isn't going to slow down anytime soon.

Evans had only one season as a 40 hr guy and one season in his 30’s. Yastremski lost his power long before 40. Fisk had one season of 30 plus HR for a career, Musial quit being a HR guy by 37. Comparing them to Cruz is pointless. Bonds wrecked a knee at 40 and wasn’t the same player coming back. The lack of context in the comparison is appalling 

Every game lost is very precious time slipping away when there is little to no margin for that. If there is a significant work stoppage I think that seals it. 500 would not happen.

I agree that each game he does not play will decrease that chance, but he has shown no signs of slowing, and there has been some hitters play into mid-40's.  Not common, but not much about him has been common.  He did not break out until nearly 30, and has been just fine into 40.  Most players fall off mid-30's after having amazing decade of mid-20's to mid-30's.  He is just shifted that timeline right now.  As long as a team is wiling to give him some time, I think he will make it.